To say that there’s been no change in $TSLA fundamentals since the Election is not technically correct. What happens when a game-changing event like Trump being elected President again: PMs who are underweight TSLA start asking their analysts how a Trump Presidency will change TSLA’s earnings trajectory and valuation.
First, anslysts will tell their PMs about how @elonmusk first friend status will usher in a new federal autonomy framework that could significantly accelerate TSLA’s autonomous deployment efforts. PMs will start evaluating whether TSLA FSD can truly get to unsupervised general autonomy in the next 12-18 months and who else could get there. As PMs see videos of Teslas finally driving themselves without intervention and project 1000x improvements vs current, many for the first time will get excited about Robotaxi and its successor Optimus, and attach a higher P/E to TSLA future earnings.
A second fundamental force being discussed by PMs is a debate similar to what occurred in 2020 about a new TSLA form factor — this time the TSLA Q hatchback — that could vault TSLA into the compact category, and expand TSLA TAM by 15%. This is similar to what happened in 2020 when Model Y launched TSLA into the CUV category, which lead to a significant acceleration in TSLA volume and earnings growth, and which caused TSLA stock to soar +743% in 2020 vs NDX +48%. One big difference: In 2020, $TSLA short interest was 15-20%, vs today it’s closer to 3%.
Being underweight TSLA going into 2025 would be a career defining bet if either or both of these two forces - TSLA autonomy and TSLA compact - takes flight.
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