To The Moon

When to Buy In?

This article is written by Shernice, if you like my article please hit the like button or do a repost.

On Sat at 2:30 am, Trump met with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang at the White House. When this news broke, it was absurdly hailed as a win for Nvidia. It's ridiculous that retail investors on the US stock market are speculating that Trump's meeting with Huang would favour artificial intelligence technology and imply policy advantages for Nvidia. This is complete nonsense.

Surprisingly, Nvidia's stock leaped by 5% right after the announcement—quite the plot twist! I was left utterly speechless because the real agenda was to discuss chip export restrictions to China, not to chit-chat about AI development. It turns out the shameless media spun the story, making it sound far more glamorous than it really was.

But here’s where it gets even more interesting: behind the scenes, this news turned out to be more of a bummer. US officials are now digging into whether DeepSeek AI has been buying Nvidia chips in Singapore without the proper nod. Considering tiny Singapore  accounts for 20% of Nvidia's chip sales, they suspect some of these chips might be sneaking their way to China. If the US clamps down on AI chip sales to China, Nvidia's revenue could take a real hit. How can anyone possibly see that as good news?

As midnight struck, institutions started offloading their shares, pushing prices down even before the broader market joined the party. By 2 AM, when the word got out that tariffs would also hit China (after only Canada and Mexico were expected to face them starting February 1st), the sell-off really kicked into high gear.

After the meeting, neither Trump nor Uncle Huang disclosed any details of their discussion. If it were positive news, like promoting the chip industry or AI development, Trump would have boasted about it to the media, given his "haolian" character. Since Nvidia's stock dropped so much this week, if there were good news, Uncle Huang wouldn't keep quiet. This secrecy suggests they discussed matters unfavourable to the NVDA, leading to no recovery in stock price by the end of the trading day, closing near the day's low.

This week has been a rollercoaster: institutions have been sneaking out of their positions, waiting on the sidelines, while retail investors are busily snapping up NVDA shares. It’s like a game where institutions sell high and retail investors try to scoop up bargains. One of Interactive Brokers' chief strategists even pointed out that the split between institutional selling and retail buying highlights just how divided opinions are on Nvidia and the future of AI.

Nvidia's stock has dropped 12.8% this week, gapping down and finding only temporary support at its 50-week moving average. And if a gap appears on a weekly chart, it usually won’t be filled anytime soon. Every time the price bounces, it faces resistance at that gap. It’s clear that retail buying alone won’t change the stock’s trend—only when institutions come back into the game will Nvidia’s price climb again.

Many are cheerleading with chants like, “Believe in Uncle Huang; buy Nvidia!” While confidence is wonderful, remember that short-term stock moves are driven by capital maneuvers, policy risks, semiconductor cycles, and shifts in market sentiment—all of which shape Nvidia’s medium-term outlook. Despite strong fundamentals, Nvidia’s stock is navigating a maze of uncertainties, so a cautious approach is wise rather than relying on catchy slogans.

Now, here’s a twist in the tale: there’s a spark of hidden good news amid the chaos. As market expectations cool and prices dip, a stellar 4Q financial performance announcement on Wednesday, February 26 that beats expectations could light up the rally stage!

Meanwhile, among the "Magnificent Seven" tech giants, four have already reported earnings, leaving Nvidia, Google, and Amazon waiting in the wings. This Q4 earnings season has been a mixed bag—some companies shined while overall market valuations remain high, and policy uncertainties have only added to the drama. The S&P 500’s forward P/E is around 22x, a bit above the historical average of 16x, placing it in the top 10% of past valuations. Since late 2023, the stock prices have outpaced earnings growth, suggesting some overvaluation. However, in a strong economy, high valuations can actually signal confidence in future earnings and stability—so as long as profits keep climbing, there’s room for a gentle correction.

Wall Street is treading carefully but optimistically, predicting a 10% earnings growth in 2025 and an S&P 500 range between 6,300 and 6,400 by year’s end. Of course, economic surprises and policy tweaks can stir things up, so expect some ups and downs within that range.

Over on the Apple front, Friday saw its stock open on a high note but then close down by 0.67%, erasing its earlier gains. It was odd—after yesterday's earnings announcement, the stock briefly rose even though iPhone revenue missed expectations and there was no dazzling new buyback plan. Just the hint of a possible 10% revenue boost for this quarter was enough to calm nerves. But today, after an initial lift, Apple’s shares dipped sharply. The candlestick pattern on the daily chart looked pretty gloomy, with heavy trading volume at the bottom, and the $247 mark today now stands as a strong resistance level for the coming days.

Even Intel couldn’t hang on—its poor earnings report left it no chance to bounce back, and today, its true colors were on full display. Nvidia too dipped, but there will always be hopeful souls ready to pounce on these lower prices, betting on a speculative rebound. What a thrilling week it’s been—watching Nvidia’s moves alone could make your head spin with excitement!

Isn’t the market just a whirlwind of surprises?

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ 

$Apple(AAPL)$ 

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