🚨🚨Global Equity Markets Today 5 Feb
US Markets
- **Tech Sector Volatility**: US tech stocks face pressure from China’s AI startup DeepSeek, which threatens high-cost US firms like Nvidia. The Nasdaq remains cautious despite recent rebounds, with tariffs and AI competition driving uncertainty .
- **S&P 500**: Flat near 6,039.40 amid mixed earnings and tariff concerns. Key support at 5,923.40; resistance at 6,100 .
Notable Movers
- **Apple**: +4% pre-market on strong iPhone 16 sales .
- **Boeing**: -3% due to FAA safety audits .
Asia/Europe
- **Hang Seng**: Rebounded 9% from recent lows, supported by USD weakness and Chinese policy easing .
- **Indian Markets**: Sensex surged 500 points, driven by strong earnings (e.g., NLC India +12%) and fiscal stimulus optimism .
- **DAX**: Up 0.5% on stronger Eurozone retail sales (+0.3% MoM) .
Forex & Central Banks
- **USD (DXY)**: Volatile, initially rallying 1% on tariff announcements before retracing to 108.41. Focus shifts to JOLTS Job Openings (forecast: 7.88M) .
- **EUR/USD**: Testing resistance at 1.0600 after breaking a three-month downtrend. Bullish technical signals suggest a retracement toward 1.0770 if 1.0200 support holds .
- **USD/JPY**: Stabilized near 155.40 but faces downside risks from BOJ’s quantitative tightening plans .
- **Emerging Markets**: EM currencies (e.g., Indian rupee, Brazilian real) remain under pressure due to Fed hawkishness and Trump’s tariff threats .
Commodities
- **Oil (Brent)**: Flat at $75.51 amid OPEC+ output hikes and US inventory builds. Trump’s vow to reduce oil prices adds medium-term bearish pressure .
- **Gold**: Hit a record high of $2,798.40, driven by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and USD volatility. Next target: $2,850–$2,933 .
- **Silver**: Outperformed gold, breaking above $30 resistance; potential to target $32–$33 .
Key Events & Data Today
1. **US JOLTS Job Openings**: A miss below 7.88M could weaken the USD and bolster gold .
2. **RBI Rate Decision**: Cut by 25 bps to 6.25%, India’s first under Governor Sanjay Malhotra .
3. **Fed Policy Signals**: Powell’s testimony (Feb 12) and FOMC minutes (Feb 19) in focus. Markets price a 65% chance of a May rate cut .
4. **Trump-Xi Call**: Delayed but critical for tariff clarity. China’s muted response has temporarily eased trade war fears .
Key Risks & Trends
1. **Tariff Volatility**: Trump’s proposed 10% tariffs on China (pending implementation) threaten global supply chains and export-dependent economies .
2. **AI Sector Pressure**: DeepSeek’s cost-efficient models challenge US tech dominance, raising capital expenditure concerns .
3. **China Slowdown**: Weak PMI (50.1) and deflation (-0.8% YoY) pressure commodities like iron ore and industrial metals .
4. **Sticky Inflation**: Fed’s "high-for-long" rate narrative persists, with core CPI near 3% limiting easing scope .
Technical Outlook
- **S&P 500**: Neutral near 6,000. Key support at 5,450; resistance at 6,100 .
- **Bitcoin**: Testing pivot at $101,637.89; break below $91,742.32 could trigger a deeper correction .
- **EUR/JPY**: Bearish below 162.60. Break above 164.00 may drive gains .
- **Gold (XAU/USD)**: Bullish above $2,658; next resistance at $2,850–$2,933 .
Conclusion:
Markets remain hypersensitive to geopolitical and policy shifts, particularly US-China tariffs and Fed signals. Tech earnings (Apple, Meta) and defensive assets (gold) are key focal points, while equities face headwinds from crowded positioning and valuation risks. Monitor JOLTS data and RBI’s rate-cut impact for short-term direction .
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$
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