🚨🚨Global Equity Markets Today 7 Feb
US Markets
- **S&P 500** gained 0.36% to 6,039.40, supported by tech resilience, though Amazon (-4% post-earnings) weighed on sentiment due to cloud capacity concerns. The **Nasdaq 100** rose 0.54%, extending a three-day winning streak, while the **Dow** fell 0.28% amid Honeywell’s (-5.5%) weak guidance .
- **Tech Sector**: NVIDIA (+8%) rebounded on AI optimism, but competition from China’s DeepSeek poses risks .
- **Europe**:
- **STOXX 600** (+1.3%) and **DAX** (+1.5%) hit record highs, driven by strong earnings (e.g., BASF +7%, Siemens Healthineers +6.1%) and easing bond yields. Defense stocks retreated on Ukraine peace rumors .
- **Asia**:
- **Hang Seng** (+0.8%) rose on AI-driven gains (Lenovo +7.5%, Xiaomi +4.8%). **Shanghai Composite** (+0.8%) defied US tariff risks, while **Nikkei** (-0.5%) lagged due to subdued risk appetite .
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Forex & Central Banks
- **USD (DXY)**: Steady near 108.41 ahead of the **US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)** report. Fed rate-cut odds (65% for May) hinge on jobs data, with Treasury Secretary Bessent reaffirming a strong dollar policy .
- **EUR/USD**: Testing resistance at 1.0600 after breaking a three-month downtrend. Technical indicators (RSI, moving averages) suggest a bullish reversal if 1.0200 support holds .
- **USD/JPY**: Stabilized near 151.00 despite BOJ’s tightening hints. Yen strength could resurge if US yields decline .
- **GBP**: Under pressure from BoE’s dovish 25bps rate cut (now 4.50%) and weak growth outlook .
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Commodities
- **Gold**: Rose 0.31% to $2,885, targeting a sixth weekly gain amid geopolitical tensions (Middle East, tariffs) and Fed uncertainty. Key resistance at $2,933 .
- **Oil**: Brent crude (+0.51%) at $74.67, set for a third weekly drop due to oversupply (OPEC+ hikes, US inventories) and Trump’s tariff threats .
- **Silver**: Outperformed gold, breaking $30 resistance with potential to reach $32–33 .
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Cryptocurrencies
- **Bitcoin**: Struggling below $100k (-1.61% to $96,836), facing resistance at $98k. Technical indicators (oversold RSI) suggest a potential breakout if $95k support holds. Regulatory tailwinds include Utah’s Bitcoin investment bill and SEC ETF reviews for XRP, LTC, and SOL .
- **Ethereum**: Fell 5.41% to $2,695.77, testing $2,781 resistance. CVD data shows increased spot market selling pressure .
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Key Events & Data
1. **US NFP (13:30 GMT)**: Forecast at 169K (prev. 256K). A miss could boost rate-cut bets, lifting equities and crypto.
2. **US Unemployment Rate**: Expected steady at 4.1%. Wage growth (Avg. Hourly Earnings) forecast at 0.0% MoM.
3. **Fed Policy Signals**: Focus on Powell’s Feb 12 testimony and FOMC minutes (Feb 19).
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Technical Outlook
- **S&P 500**: Bullish above 5,923 support; resistance at 6,123 .
- **EUR/USD**: Break above 1.0600 could target 1.0770 (200-day MA). Failure at 1.0200 risks a drop to 0.9950 .
- **BTC/USD**: Critical support at $95k; a breakout above $98k may reignite bullish momentum toward $101k .
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Risks & Trends
1. **Geopolitical Tensions**: Escalation in Ukraine/Middle East or US-China tariffs could disrupt markets .
2. **Fed Policy**: Sticky inflation (core CPI ~3%) may delay rate cuts, pressuring equities .
3. **Tech Volatility**: AI competition (DeepSeek) and earnings (Apple, Meta) remain focal points .
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Conclusion:
Today’s market direction hinges on the NFP report and Fed policy signals. Equities face mixed sentiment (tech resilience vs. tariff risks), while gold and crypto benefit from safe-haven demand. Monitor EUR/USD and BTC for technical breakouts, and oil for supply-driven volatility.
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$
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