To The Moon

Public Holidays

There will be no public holidays in China, America, Hong Kong, or Singapore in the coming week.

Economic Calendar (10Feb2025)

Notable Highlights

• CPI should be the most watched economic data for the coming week. The Core CPI (MoM) is expected to be 0.3% from the previous month.

• The PPI data will be announced. This inflation first affects the producers and should eventually cascade down to the consumers. The PPI can be seen as a reference to the CPI outlook.

• Fed Chair Powell will testify before Congress, and his policy and outlook will receive considerable attention. President Trump has been pressuring for rate cuts, and there should be some clarity on this.

• There will be a 10-year Note auction and a 30-year Bond auction. The auctions can provide a good indication of how the market views bonds compared to other asset classes, such as stocks.

• Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales data will be released. This reveals how consumption is faring in the market.

• Initial jobless claims will be announced. The Federal Reserve uses this as one of the key macro data references as it balances inflation and employment in the economy.

• Crude Oil Inventories can be seen as forward indicators of market demand and consumption. If the trend of excess inventories continues, demand erosion can lead to reduced production & weakening consumer spending.

Earnings Calendar (10Feb2025)

I am interested in the following earnings in the coming week: McDonald’s, Hertz, Shopify, Honda, Lyft and CVS Health.

Let us look at Lyft in detail.

Description of LYFT in QuickFS

Lyft has a “Strong Buy” recommendation based on Technical Analysis. Analysts’ Sentiment is “Buy,” and the price target is $18.80. This implies an upside of 32.71% from the last closed price, which grew 8.7% from a year ago.

Observations about LYFT:

• Revenue grew from $343 million in 2016 to $4.4 billion in 2023.

• Gross profit grew from $64 million in 2016 to $1.8 billion in 2023.

• The company has not been profitable since the year 2016. It ended the year 2023 with an operational loss of $476 million. However, its losses have been decreasing over recent months.

• Earnings per share (EPS) has dropped from -$2.87 in 2016 to -$0.88 in 2023.

The EPS and Revenue forecasts are $0.207 and $1.56B respectively.

The falling revenue is the other area of concern. I prefer to monitor the stock until it breaks even.

Market Outlook of S&P500 - 10Feb2025

Observations:

• The MACD indicator is showing an uptrend. A top crossover is expected soon.

• Moving Averages (MA). Both the MA50 line and the MA200 line are on an uptrend. The last candle is above both the MA50 line and the MA200 line. This implies a bullish outlook for both the mid- and long-term.

• The 3 Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing an uptrend.

• Chaikin’s Monetary flow (CMF) shows an uptrend.

The S&P500 has risen 19.88% from a year ago.

From the S&P500 Technical Analysis, Investing dot com recommends a “Buy” rating based on the technical indicators. From the 17 indicators, 13 of them are showing a “Buy” rating whereas 4 are showing a “Sell” rating.

From the recent candlestick patterns, we noticed that there are “more” bearish patterns.

From the above, the S&P500 should go up in the coming week but we are expecting a reversal (that is a downtrend) in the coming days.

News and my thoughts from last week (10Feb2025)

Have we replaced our culture of excellence with a culture of accommodation? - PBD

From entitlement comes abuse. The entitlement and abuse of the leaders cascade down to the people. Eventually, the system behaves accordingly. This is not about one person or a group. We are talking about holding a system accountable and they may not let go easily.

From X user - Dr Singh Investor

Price is the outcome of demand meeting supply. It can be falling demand, increasing supply or a mixture of both.

The European Union has decided to lower tariffs on American car imports as a strategic move to prevent a trade war with the United States. It will decrease the rate from 10% to 2.5%, per FT. - X user Unusual Whales.

CONGRESS FUNNELED $516 BILLION INTO EXPIRED PROGRAMS WITH ZERO OVERSIGHT IN 2024 The CBO just revealed that Congress spent $516 billion in 2024 on programs with expired authorizations, some dating back over 40 years. Despite rules against funding unauthorized programs, lawmakers ignored them—letting billions flow without updated approvals or oversight. Even worse, 251 more authorizations are set to expire this year, including $892 billion in defense spending, yet Congress keeps writing blank checks. This isn’t governance—it’s corruption. Congress is recklessly burning taxpayer money on programs they haven’t even bothered to approve. Source: CBO. X user Mario Nawfal

Bloomberg reports that Chinese state majors were looking to resell U.S. oil cargos for delivery over the next two months and seeking alternatives from the Middle East and Africa. Energy Aspects has calculated that Chinese importers of petroleum would need to find some 200,000 barrels daily in alternative crude oil supply to replace U.S. volumes.

What is unfolding would go into our textbooks as case studies for corruption and abuse. Let justice prevail. Let's learn from them and get better.

The AI industry is demanding accountability and transparency. Time to trim the excess that rode the AI fame. Investors demand their returns.

In 2025, $9.2 TRILLION of US debt will either mature or need to be refinanced. The US now holds $36.2 trillion worth of government debt, meaning 25.4% of the total is set to mature.

Pennsylvania business admitting 100% of their staff are illegals Speaking in Spanish “We have no choice but to close this place because all the people who worked here, some are scared, there’s no one to come to work, others have already been taken by immigration” The government seems to think they have a tax revenue problem, what about the tens of millions of illegals working under the table not paying taxes? I’m guessing America is FULL of these illegally operating businesses - X user Wall Street Apes

The Microsoft, $MSFT, 365 family subscription, with Word, Excel and other apps, will now cost $130 a year, per Bloomberg. This is a 30% increase. X user Unusual Whales

My Investing Muse (10Feb2025)

Layoffs & Closure news

Image

END OF AN ERA: QUIKSILVER, BILLABONG & VOLCOM STORES TO CLOSE IN U.S. Icons of ’90s surf and skate culture, these brands once ruled malls and boardwalks. Now, over 100 stores will shut down as Liberated Brands files for bankruptcy, citing inflation, shifting consumer habits, and the decline of brick-and-mortar retail. Online shopping and fast fashion have reshaped the industry—leaving legacy brands struggling to keep up. Source: NBC News from X user Mario Nawfal

• Salesforce cuts 1,000 jobs as it joins Meta, Microsoft and Apple in AI pivot - Cityam

• Workday cuts nearly 2,000 employees Enterprise HR platform Workday is the latest tech company to announce layoffs in recent weeks. - Techcrunch

• Layoffs hit more than 7,100 workers tied to freight industry in US, Canada Amazon, Fila, Kohl’s, Del Monte Foods, Lytx, Lineage among companies with job cuts - FreightWaves

• Okta, SF tech company worth $16 billion, lays off staff after turning first profits - SF Gate

• Forever 21 considers bankruptcy filing if asset-sale plans fail - Business Times SG

The above are some snippets of news about layoffs, and closures in the past week.

The Demand on AI

Is AI hype a bubble or the next big thing? Magnificent 7 stocks are 30 TIMES higher than where they were 10 years ago, exceeding gains of other historical manias. The Nasdaq 100 rose 12x in 10 years before the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble popped. The Nikkei 225 rose 10x in a decade during the Japanese bubble of the 1980s. Furthermore, Gold saw a 15x increase in price in the 1970s before its peak. Lastly, Nifty Fifty stock prices rose 5x in the 1960s before the bull market ended in 1969. Will AI live up to the historically high expectations? - X user The Kobeissi Letter

This is not about more companies expressing interest or plans to introduce AI into their operations. It is also about investors seeking improved returns from AI investments.

As America, we now have two choices: win in AI, including win in open source AI. Or let China win in AI, all over the world. I believe it is critically important that we win. Kneecapping American AI, and American open source AI, to protect Big Proprietary AI is asking to lose. - X user Marc Andreessen

Some like Marc Andreessen (above) have encouraged America to invest and lead in open-source AI. Will there be a coordinated effort to push American companies to take the lead in open-sourced AI?

US Growth

US growth is not a miracle, it is fully debt-driven: It took a MASSIVE $2.2 trillion in public debt to create $570 billion in GDP growth in 2024 (before revisions). In other words, it took $3.9 of debt to generate $1 of economic growth. - X user Global Markets Investor

There are years of deficit spending but we need to wake up to the fact the growth is partially through government funding and not just American products and services. Given the amount of waste, are the returns inflated too? Can America drive their growth through products and services? Can America continue to lead with innovations and life-changing technologies? Can Europe and China challenge this?

With President Trump, the world looks with anticipation. If the government is driving the GDP growth, what has become of the market?

My final thoughts

The biggest risks point us to the biggest opportunities. Data privacy, data security and energy would be the next frontiers. Healthcare for the elderly would be the next growing sector. - Benson Kong

Global hedge funds dump everything but real estate stocks, says Goldman Sachs - Reuters

Let us consider exploring more options. There are concerns with insurance, banking, and real estate. The bonds are not taking the Fed’s lead as they continue to remain elevated. Can this be due to risk-reward?

Let us research before investing.

@TigerStars

$Lyft, Inc.(LYFT)$

$S&P 500(.SPX)$

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$