To The Moon

The sequence is $NVIDIA (NVDA)$, $Tesla (TSLA)$, $KWEB$, $FXI$, and $BABA$. This week is special because Friday marks the expiration of monthly options. The options expiring this week make up a significant portion of total open interest (OI), meaning institutions need to manage these positions. This factor should be considered in trading decisions.

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$

Based on Friday’s new order flow, the bulls aim to push NVIDIA above a pre-market price of 141 early this week.

Last Friday, institutions sold calls at the 141 strike ($NVDA 20250221 141.0 CALL$ ), opening 54,000 contracts, while hedging this by buying 149 calls ($NVDA 20250221 149.0 CALL$ ), opening 32,000 contracts. Judging from the new positions, there’s a trend toward moving closer to 150, with some probability of a successful short squeeze.

However, this sharp rally may not be entirely bullish. According to the overall OI ranking, the most popular call option is the 140 call expiring this week, with 176,000 open contracts.

This week is likely to see a spike followed by a pullback, but the head OI of put options has relatively low strike prices. It’s uncertain whether the pullback will return to 140 or drop to 130.

Looking at next week’s expiring options ($NVDA 20250228 150.0 CALL$ ), which are showing increased volume, the pullback may not be too severe, as earnings expectations are keeping the market optimistic.

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$

From the latest OI rankings, Tesla’s February and March options suggest a likely price range of 300–400.

This week, institutions sold calls at the 365 strike to hedge by buying 390 calls. Put options opened this week are far out of the money, indicating that the price is likely to stabilize, with implied volatility dropping significantly. Selling puts at the 300 strike is a reasonable choice.

$KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF(KWEB)$

Based on the OI rankings, the head OI for options expiring this week is at the 36 call (66,900 contracts) and the 30 put (35,000 contracts), meaning the stock price is highly likely to close between 30 and 36 this week.

The highlight of this table is that the head OI data is concentrated in March. This means there will definitely be another round of shakeouts before the end of March. However, before that, the stock price still has a chance to approach 40.

According to the new order flow, there is a clear increase in put options expiring this week, with a pullback target of 33.

Additionally, there is early positioning in March call options, with a target of 40.

$iShares China Large-Cap ETF(FXI)$

As shown in the OI ranking, the head OI for options has expirations mostly in March. For February, the head OI for calls is at the 32 strike, and for puts, it’s at the 31 strike, suggesting the stock price may move toward this range.

Based on the newly added put option data, it’s highly likely that the price will pull back below 34 this week.

$Alibaba(BABA)$

The OI strike prices for Alibaba are much more conservative relative to the stock price, but the new positions being opened are very aggressive. The head OI for call options expiring this week is already in the money. However, to crush the in-the-money call options, a price drop isn’t necessarily required—simply preventing the price from rising is sufficient.

From the newly added OI data, there is a notable increase in call options above 130, but the volume isn’t enough to trigger a squeeze, making these positions ineffective. Therefore, the stock price is highly likely to close below 130 this week.