GoldNuggets — Gold Halving, Turnings
The US Gold Jog Continues
There is a steady jog, some might call it a run, of gold $Gold - main 2504(GCmain)$ to the USA on tariff concerns. We’ve seen it clearly in the gold warehouse inventory charts (e.g. chart no. 26 in the pack), but here’s another example; Swiss gold exports to the USA have surged to record highs.
The Gold Halving
Bitcoiners always go on about the halvening being a key fundamental support for Bitcoin prices as it reduces supply growth (by making it 50% harder to mine new coins with “the halving“ taking place every 4 years).
But as it turns out, precious metals have also seen “halving” — as Willem Middelkoop points out: “since 2005 the amount of gold discovered declined by 50% every 5 years. We are running out of new gold“.
If it’s good for Bitcoin, it must be great for gold!
Gold Morning
Interesting observation on gold market behavior — “Since 1970, if Gold had only traded during COMEX hours, it would be at $2.30, but if it had only traded during Asian hours, it would be $4,500.“
We’d have to conclude based on this that US/Europe have been structural sellers, and Asia have been structural buyers, but there maybe something else is going on too…
Stocks vs Gold
As I similarly noted a couple of weeks ago, stocks look set to turn vs gold (i.e. gold looks set to start outperforming vs stocks… and p.s. the way that can happen is either by gold surging faster and further than stocks, or by gold holding steady and stocks dumping (or some combination thereof)).
Mike McGlone of Bloomberg notes that stocks may be in the process of rolling over vs gold similar to what happened in 1971.
Gold Mining Stocks Market Cap Weight
The worst kept secret of the current Gold Bull Market is how poorly gold miners have been performing. While gold is hovering around all-time highs and within spitting distance of breaking through the big $3k level, global gold miners’ market cap weighting is sitting just below long-term average.
I suspect somewhere on the north side of Gold $3000 that the market will start to wakeup to the prospects of gold miner profits.
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