As of February 28, 2025, Donald Trump has been in office for 39 days since his inauguration on January 20, 2025. Below is a review of his first 38 days (January 20 to February 26, 2025) regarding the stock market, Tesla, Bitcoin price, and labor market, based on available trends and insights up to this point. Since comprehensive data for the exact 38-day period may not be fully consolidated yet, I’ll provide an analysis based on the trajectory observed in the early weeks of his presidency, drawing from general market reactions and policy expectations.
Stock Market
Trump’s return to office was initially met with optimism in the stock market, fueled by expectations of pro-business policies such as tax cuts, deregulation, and increased domestic energy production. In the days immediately following his inauguration, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq saw gains, with the S&P 500 approaching record highs and the Nasdaq climbing as investor sentiment was buoyed by the removal of election uncertainty. For example, on January 21, the first trading day post-inauguration, stocks showed volatility but ended with some sectors advancing due to Trump’s early executive orders.
However, by mid-February, the market narrative shifted. By February 26, reports indicated that U.S. stocks lagged behind European and Chinese markets, with the S&P 500 down 0.75% and the Nasdaq Composite dropping 1.5% on that day alone. The Dow wavered, sliding 0.2% after an initial uptick. This cooling off was attributed to mounting inflation concerns, uncertainty around Trump’s tariff policies (such as the proposed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10% on China), and a consumer confidence index showing its largest monthly decline since August 2021. Tech stocks, including Nvidia and Tesla, led a selloff, suggesting that the initial "Trump trade" rally—where stocks surged post-election—began to fade as policy specifics remained unclear or less decisive than anticipated.
Overall, the stock market in Trump’s first 38 days likely experienced an initial surge followed by volatility and a slight downturn, reflecting a mix of optimism and growing caution.
Tesla
Tesla, led by Elon Musk—a key Trump ally and head of the Department of Government Efficiency—saw significant attention during this period. Post-election, Tesla shares surged nearly 70% by late January, driven by Musk’s close ties to Trump and expectations that his influence could benefit the company through deregulation or government support. However, within the first 38 days, Tesla’s stock experienced fluctuations. By January 21, it had dropped 2.8% in a single day, erasing premarket gains, and by February 26, it fell 8% midday, pushing its market value below $1 trillion.
This decline came despite Musk’s ambitious 2025 plans for Tesla, including Cybercab rollouts and sales growth. Analysts suggest that Trump’s proposed rollback of Biden-era EV tax credits ($7,500 per vehicle) could hurt Tesla’s competitors more than Tesla itself, yet broader market concerns—like inflation and tariff impacts on supply chains—may have weighed on the stock. Over the 38 days, Tesla likely saw a pattern of early gains giving way to losses as investor enthusiasm tempered with macroeconomic realities.
From a high of $486 to $282, $654 billion has been erased from Tesla's market cap. Overvalued, market manipulation or amazing wealth deflation for long term investors.
Bitcoin Price
Bitcoin started Trump’s second term on a high note, hitting an all-time peak of nearly $110,000 shortly after his inauguration, up 2% from January 20. This surge was driven by Trump’s pro-crypto stance, including promises to make the U.S. the "crypto capital" and hints at a national Bitcoin reserve. The SEC’s announcement of a crypto task force to clarify regulations further fueled optimism in late January.
However, the rally cooled over the next few weeks. By February 19, Bitcoin had fallen 4% from its peak, trading around $106,500, as Trump’s initial policies lacked concrete crypto catalysts. His focus shifted to energy and trade, disappointing some investors expecting immediate action on a Bitcoin stockpile. By February 26, reports suggested a further slide, with Bitcoin dipping below $90,000 amid broader market turbulence. Over the 38 days, Bitcoin likely peaked early, then declined as hype subsided without policy follow-through, though it remained elevated compared to pre-inauguration levels.
$Trump Media & Technology(DJT)$
Trump Media stock (DJT) fluctuated significantly from Trump’s election win on November 6, 2024, to today, February 28, 2025. Starting at ~$40.03, it rose to an estimated peak of $55.00 (up $14.97 or 37.4%), then declined to ~$24.00 (down $31.00 or 56.4% from the peak). The net change is a decrease of $16.03, or approximately 40.0%, reflecting an initial post-election rally followed by a substantial sell-off. These figures are approximations based on available trends, as exact daily prices require market data beyond the provided references.
The volatility of Trump Coin ($TRUMP), a meme coin launched by Donald Trump on January 17, 2025, on the Solana blockchain, stems from a combination of its inherent design, market dynamics, and external factors tied to Trump’s political and personal influence. As of February 28, 2025, its price has swung dramatically—from a launch range of $6.50-$10 to a peak of $74.59-$75 within days, then dropping to around $16-$33 by late February—reflecting the extreme fluctuations typical of meme coins but amplified by unique Trump-related drivers. Below is a detailed explanation of its volatility:
Labor Market
Trump’s early policies targeted the labor market, particularly through immigration restrictions. Within his first 38 days, he issued executive orders to limit immigration, including stricter visa vetting and a national emergency declaration at the southern border. These align with his campaign promise to reduce illegal immigration, which could impact labor supply. Net immigration, averaging 3.3 million annually in 2023-2024, was projected to drop to 500,000 in 2025—similar to his first term—potentially reducing the workforce by millions, given undocumented workers comprise about 7.2% (9 million) of U.S. labor.
Pre-inauguration data showed a robust labor market inherited from Biden, with unemployment at historic lows (around 4.1% in late 2024) and jobless claims dropping to 211,000 in early January 2025—an eight-month low. However, no specific labor market data for February 2025 is widely available yet. Trump’s tariff threats, announced by late January (e.g., 25% on Canada and Mexico), could disrupt sectors like construction and agriculture, where immigrant labor is concentrated, potentially tightening labor availability. Over the 38 days, the labor market likely remained strong but faced looming pressures from immigration curbs, with effects to be seen in later data like the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book.
Trump's second term heralds the beginning of uncertainty, from tariffs on allies, to mending ties with his favourite dictators, the failed billionaire from the Apprentice series, seeks to put his mark once again on the world, painting eagerly with a brush of deals on the fly, often reversing course mid stream, much like Tom and Jerry in real life, a never ending chase to make America great again. For long term investors, the wealth effect will be instantly felt while speculators and traders see their gains and losses change by the minute.
Stay invested and stay safe!
Modify on 2025-03-01 00:38
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