Weekly Macro Themes - US Small Caps Cautiously Bullish
This week I covered the following topics/ideas: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$
1. Volatility Views: This alternative volatility indicator is flagging the prospect of a major turning point in the US dollar and commodities, and an overall shift to a more volatile macro/market regime.
2. Oil & Energy Stocks: Bullish crude oil on technicals and sentiment + supply and demand outlook. Also constructive on energy stocks given near-record low allocations, extreme cheap relative value.
3. Carbon & ESG: Potentially bullish setup as investors lose interest and ESG experiences waning enthusiasm, but awaiting confirmation on the technicals (and macro).
4. US Small Caps: Cautiously bullish; valuations remain cheap, sentiment and positioning have become contrarian bullish following the market correction, yet risks remain (on-watch).
5. LatAm Equities: Bullish LatAm equities given cheap valuations and low allocations set against improving technicals and forward earnings, and cheap FX (which is also gaining ground).
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