To The Moon

This earnings season, post-earnings stock rallies have become increasingly rare. While some growth stocks initially surged on the day of their earnings reports, many experienced consecutive declines afterward. Others saw sharp drops even after slightly missing estimates. This trend highlights a broader reality: many companies were already overvalued, and the market is undergoing widespread valuation compression across various asset classes.

Despite some pullbacks, the S&P 500 remains quite high, suggesting that many stocks—especially in the tech sector—are still trading at elevated valuations. The divergence between stock prices and fundamentals remains a major concern. The enthusiasm around AI, cloud computing, and other tech trends has inflated valuations, and when expectations are too high, even strong earnings reports may not be enough to push stock prices higher. This is especially true when valuations are already stretched, and future growth has already been priced in.

Why I Avoid Overvalued Stocks?

I take a cautious approach to stock investing, particularly in the current environment:

1. Avoiding Stocks Far Above Their 52-Week Lows – If a stock is significantly higher than its 52-week low, I tend to remove it from my watchlist. This is because I prioritize entry points that offer good value relative to past prices, rather than chasing momentum-driven gains.

2. Valuation Matters More Than Short-Term Performance – Even if a company beats earnings estimates, its stock may not rise significantly if expectations were already high. In some cases, stocks have declined after strong earnings simply because they were already priced for perfection.

3. High Interest Rate Environment – With interest rates remaining elevated for an extended period, there are attractive alternatives to stocks, such as high-yield savings accounts, bonds, and money market funds. This reduces the urgency to invest in equities, especially if valuations seem stretched.

4. Recession Risks Remain – Although many investors believe a recession is unlikely, risks still exist. Consumer spending patterns, corporate earnings, and economic indicators could weaken if economic conditions deteriorate, leading to further valuation compression in the stock market.

How Long Will the Valuation Compression Last?

Valuation compression may continue as long as interest rates remain high and economic uncertainty persists. A shift in Fed policy, signs of a slowdown in corporate earnings, or a change in investor sentiment could further impact valuations. While some stocks might recover, others—particularly those that remain highly valued without strong fundamentals—could continue to struggle.

For now, I remain cautious. I prefer to wait for better entry points rather than chasing stocks at inflated prices, especially in a market where expectations can be overly optimistic.