SPY - Short-term dip buying might not be a bad opportunity
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ We’ve seen a significant pullback over the past couple of weeks, and there’s been a lot of talk about whether we’re in a bear market. I want to be clear—this isn’t anywhere near the kind of selling we’d see if structure fully breaks.
I’m not saying this to scare anyone, but I’ve seen this type of setup before—most recently in February 2022. That time, the breakdown led to a much deeper decline. I’m hoping that’s not the case here, but as always, we have to stay objective.
Looking at price action from last week, we technically had a break of structure. Price pulled back through 570 support and broke lower. Buyers stepped in on Friday, and we closed strong back above that level, but that doesn’t erase the fact that structure broke—and I’m not a fan of that.
What’s most likely? I think we’ll see a relief bounce in the next couple of weeks, maybe up to 590, max 600. From there, we need to watch the weekly chart to confirm higher lows. But even more importantly, as we head toward the end of March, we need to watch the monthly chart. If this month closes with lower lows and in the red, history tells us that it doesn’t end well.
🔷 The last time this happened? We entered a bear market.
🔷 The time before that? A deeper bear market.
🔷 The two times before that? 10% corrections.
At this point, short-term dip buying might not be a bad opportunity, but I’m not going to lie—I’m starting to get a little concerned.
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