Foreign investors, bear, outflow - News & my muse (21Apr25)
News and my thoughts from last week (21Apr25)
Should we be surprised if there are breakups and shake-ups within Trump's team? It is a strong team with strong individuals.
$6 trillion debt is due in months, $9 trillion in a year. These are likely to be refinanced. Changes should come sooner.
As a non-US citizen, American prosperity is key to my country and many others who trade with the USA. Having the right policy and posturing can help all to create value and prosper together. There are things that need alignment from all sides. Yet isn't this more about cultural differences than Tariffs? We can still grow and prosper together despite our differences, circumstances and cultures. The part that puzzled me was that the majority of the Tariffs can be passed on to American buyers, manufacturers and consumers.
Recession is coming before the end of 2025, generally 'pessimistic' corporate CFOs say, per CNBC
It is about a willing buyer meeting a willing seller. If one party is unwilling, there is no deal.
“Over the long term, it's better to buy stocks in small companies.” — Peter Lynch
Bear markets make fools of both bulls and bears. In the Great Financial Crisis, the S&P 500 recorded over 6 bear market rallies. After the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble burst we saw 5-6 bear market rallies as well. - X user Global Markets Investor
2000 Dotcom bear market: Initial drop of 30% before a massive bear market rally then broke for new lows. 2008 GFC bear market: Initial drop of 21% before a massive bear market rally then broke for new lows. 2022 Inflation fears bear market: Initial drop of 21% before a massive bear market rally then broke for new lows. 2025 Tariffs bear market: Initial drop of 21% before a massive bear market rally then will be break for new lows? Rhyming or Lying? - X user Heisenberg
The risk of historic OUTFLOWS from US equities is underappreciated: US stock funds saw over $7 BILLION in net outflows from overseas investors, the 2nd-largest withdrawal in HISTORY. Foreigners hold $18 trillion or 20% of the total US market. - X user Global Markets Investor
There will be a tipping point when sentiments take over data. As we move towards these tipping points, the outlook changes, together with the spending habits. Maybe we can delay any big-ticket items, purchases or investments.
Saudi Defence Minister in Tehran: "From now on, I openly and proudly declare that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia considers Iran a friend, brother and worthy neighbour." - X user Sprinter Observer
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U.S. imports from China are down 60%. That’s a $24B/month hole in supply chains. - X user Michael Burry Stock Tracker
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Foreign investors are dumping US stocks at a rapid pace: Investors from overseas withdrew ~$6.5 billion from US equity funds over the last week, the second-largest amount on record. Net outflows were only below the $7.5 billion seen during the March 2023 Banking Crisis. According to Apollo, foreigners own a massive $18.5 trillion of US stocks, or 20% of the total US equity market. Moreover, foreign holdings of US Treasuries are at $7.2 trillion, or 30% of the total. Investors from abroad also hold 30% of the total corporate credit market, for a total of $4.6 trillion. Foreign investors want out amid the volatility. - X user The Kobeissi Letter
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US recession probability for the coming year is at 45%, the highest since December 2023 - Poll - X user Financial Juice
I hear so many stories of shipments being just cancelled out of China. Just stopped. No more ordering or shipping. In 2 months, we will likely have Covid-level shortages. - X user Logistics Expert
The Port of Long Beach in Southern California expects a 20% volume reduction this year if the tariffs continue as planned. - AP News
While institutional players are rotating, rebalancing, or simply waiting things out, retail investors appear to be betting on a comeback—or perhaps are just conditioned by years of dip-buying muscle memory. - QZ
S&P Global Ratings hinted that it could lower the US credit rating, currently at AA+, by another notch if any of a number of things happen to make the US's fiscal situation worse. - Yahoo Finance
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Trade is coming to a halt right in front of your eyes. - X user Logistics Expert
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Americans, you must pay off $9 trillion of your debt this year! 6 trillion of which will come due in just over a month! Your best choice is to remove all tariffs and borrow money from other countries. - X user Shanghai Panda
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‘Tariff shockwave’ leads to collapse in ocean container bookings, US imports plunge 64% from March to April - FreightWaves
CNBC Poll: Sixty per cent of chief financial officers think the U.S. will enter a recession in the second half of 2025, and another 15% say a recession will hit in 2026.
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Global Central Banks dumped U.S. Stocks last month at the fastest pace in history - X user BarChart
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