U.S. GDP shrank -0.3% in 1Q (vs +0.4% exp) as Trump’s economic policies weighed on consumer and business sentiment. Consumer spending was +1.8% and net exports reduced 1Q GDP by -5pp due to accelerated purchases in front of tariff hikes. Separately, ADP March private payrolls were +62K vs +120K expected. We are very likely in recession as consumers continue to pull back.
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