No single strategy performs consistently all year round
Try this. To evaluate your situational awareness, annotate every trade—win or loss—on the index chart.
Lowest YTD win rate month: 10% (1 win 9 loss in Feb chop fest, and my Cancer scare period. But it's a winning month, BOIL 16R)
Highest MTD win rate month: 43.8% (will do a comparative to USIC $1M+ account for performance through 30 Apr 2025)
Avg Monthly Trades: 17 (Highest 32, Lowest 10)
YTD % Return: +45.7%
*Does not include UDN holding (hedge USD)
You’ll find a few things.
1. Less is more. With nearly half the year gone, I’ve only taken 76 trades—continuing a YoY decline in activity but my performance remains consistent (I am expecting a pullback from my current EC high). My total trades in 2024 was 349, 2023 was 466. I won't be able to annotate my trades so cleanly on the index chart so give me such perspective in prior years.
2. High-probability setups (equities co-related specifically) usually appear before the broader market shift. I've previously explained why $SPOT will never make it onto my focus list, regardless of how appealing the setup appears in isolation. It has now become a stop loss for most.
3. I'm risk adverse, I don't trade ahead pre-market econ data without 2 days cushion (specifically monthly inflation/job/ISM reports, I previously shared a 15 years excel data evidence that they gap bi-directionally prior to open, more often than not)
4. A single day's delay in entry can lead to a drastically different nett trade outcome, and the need to grab your balls and re-enter a losing trade from prior day. Simply look at my last few losing entry on $ROBN (HOOD), $RETL. I made the mistake to passed on their re-entry opportunity. Sometimes trading really do feel like a slot machine, but we need to remind ourselves risk is always in our control. I took $DBA, again yesterday after a previous week loss.
5. Will share trade by trade profit/loss histogram when time allows. That is another evaluation u need to do as a trader. Equity curve is only useful as a risk control mechanism with Moving Average Period introduce into it (dabble down on risk when EC drawdown below MA etc).
There are many ways to grow as a trader, but it all starts with studying your own trades. Jumping from one style to another when things aren’t working is counterproductive, no single strategy performs consistently all year round.
Notes:
1. Green = Win, Red = Loss
2. Above price = Long, Below price = Short (via inverse long)
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