To The Moon

$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $APPLIED DIGITAL CORP(APLD)$ 🚨🤖📈 CoreWeave at Warp Speed: Can the AI Cloud Kingpin Keep Climbing? 📈🤖🚨

CoreWeave’s ascent is a masterclass in strategic foresight, capitalising on the AI infrastructure boom with precision that has left even tech giants in its wake. Its 276% year-to-date surge, culminating in a record close of $150.48, reflects a market enthralled by its positioning at the nexus of AI compute demand and Nvidia’s GPU dominance. Yet, beneath the euphoria, fundamental questions loom about sustainability, valuation, and risks tied to its concentrated dependencies. Let’s dissect the phenomenon and address the outlook with a fundamentals-driven perspective using New Zealand English spelling.

🌐 From Crypto Miner to AI Titan

CoreWeave’s pivot from a small-scale Ethereum miner in 2019 to an AI cloud juggernaut is a story of opportunistic brilliance. While crypto miners floundered during the 2018 to 2019 market crash, CoreWeave’s founders, Michael Intrator, Brian Venturo, and Brannin McBee, saw an opening. They amassed Nvidia GPUs at bargain prices, building a stockpile that proved prescient when the generative AI wave, sparked by OpenAI’s ChatGPT in 2022, sent GPU demand soaring.

By 2023, CoreWeave’s 250,000+ Nvidia GPUs positioned it as a critical supplier of high-performance compute, with early access to Nvidia’s H100 and H200 chips cementing its edge. This wasn’t luck, it was a calculated bet on Nvidia’s hardware becoming the backbone of AI.

CoreWeave became Nvidia’s first Elite Cloud Provider in 2021. Nvidia’s 7% stake in the company, representing 78% of its AI investment portfolio, isn’t just capital support, it’s strategic infrastructure alignment. That trust has turned CoreWeave into a GPU pipeline for AI giants from OpenAI to Meta, exploding its revenue from $16 million in 2022 to $1.9 billion in 2024, a 118x leap.

🧠 The Microsoft Nexus: Strength or Weakness?

CoreWeave claims its AI compute is up to 35 times faster and 80% cheaper than traditional hyperscalers like AWS and Azure. This claim underpins its $11.9 billion five-year contract with OpenAI, with Microsoft accounting for 62% of 2024 revenue under a multi-year compute agreement.

However, that concentration is both power and peril. With 77% of revenue coming from just two clients (Microsoft and likely OpenAI), CoreWeave’s stability is bound to their infrastructure needs. Microsoft’s recent reassessment of some data centre leases, highlighted by the Financial Times, stirs concern. Should Microsoft or OpenAI move toward in-house solutions, CoreWeave’s revenue cliff could be steep and sudden.

⚡ Powering Up: The Applied Digital (APLD) Deal

CoreWeave’s 15-year, 250-megawatt data centre lease with Applied Digital in North Dakota is designed to scale compute capacity. Nvidia’s stakes in both companies add strategic synergy. APLD surged 50% on the announcement, though its modest $53 million in quarterly revenue shows the market is pricing in exponential future growth.

This deal strengthens CoreWeave’s GPU deployment capabilities, but raises questions about capital intensity. With $23 billion in planned 2025 investments and $8 billion in debt, $7.6 billion of which carries a 14.11% interest rate from Blackstone and Magnetar, the company is leveraging heavily for growth.

💥 Cracks in the Silicon

CoreWeave’s profitability is still distant. Its $314.6 million Q1 2025 net loss came despite 420% revenue growth to $981.6 million. Depreciation risk looms large. Nvidia is moving to an annual GPU upgrade cycle, with the Vera Rubin architecture expected by 2026. Clients demanding the latest chips could force CoreWeave to write down older hardware, impacting the balance sheet. Jensen Huang’s quip that “Hopper is already obsolete” is not just wit, it’s a warning.

Valuation also feels stretched. With a market cap of $57.7 billion and a lower forward P/S ratio than Nvidia, CoreWeave’s path assumes exponential scaling and eventual profitability. Any deceleration in AI spend, such as TD Cowen’s commentary on Microsoft’s infra pullback, could trigger volatility.

🏗️ Nvidia vs. CoreWeave: Architect vs. Builder

CoreWeave isn’t the next Nvidia. Nvidia owns the silicon, sets pricing, and leads on margin. CoreWeave is more like a niche hyperscaler, focused purely on AI compute. Its revenue backlog of $25.9 billion, including $11.2 billion from OpenAI, is massive, but the business model is capital-heavy and exposure-heavy.

Still, as a facilitator of AI, it holds potential. But unlike Nvidia’s asset-light dominance, CoreWeave must walk a tightrope of capital deployment, debt servicing, and client concentration management. The innovation gap remains.

📈 Technical Watch: The $200 Breakout or the $97 Retest?

The recent 56% surge in a single week following Nvidia’s 7% stake and CoreWeave’s Q1 earnings beat (actual: $981.6 million, expected: $852.9 million) puts $CRWV in the limelight. Jefferies has a $51 target and “buy” rating, while Citi, Morgan Stanley, and Deutsche Bank offer “neutral” views.

The chart shows an ascending triangle breakout, with a possible push toward $200 if momentum holds. Support levels lie at $122 and $97. Current price as of 2 June 2025 is $120.20. Momentum is strong, but consolidation risk is real.

🎯 Target Price Outlook: $130 Base, $200 Top?

If CoreWeave delivers on its 2025 revenue guidance of $4.9–$5.1 billion and maintains its current P/S of 11.3, then a $55–$57 billion valuation implies a price range of $114–$119. A bullish AI demand scenario could justify $150–$200 per share. Conversely, if Microsoft or OpenAI reduce spend, or if GPU depreciation bites, downside to $73–$97 is plausible. I lean toward a conservative $130 target by year-end, balancing growth optimism with capital and client risk.

🧭 Final Word: Innovation vs Execution

CoreWeave is one of the most remarkable tech pivots in recent memory. Its rise from a 2019 Ethereum miner to a multi-billion-dollar AI cloud platform is legendary. But the market is pricing in Nvidia-like resilience on a very different foundation.

Nvidia still wins on innovation, margin, and platform power. CoreWeave is the enabler, not the originator. For risk-tolerant traders, CoreWeave offers spectacular upside. For longer-term investors, Nvidia remains the AI era’s cornerstone.

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