🚀 My 10-Bag Pick: $Nu Holdings Ltd.(NU)$
Why NU Could 10× in 10 Years
Massive, under-served market
• Only ~55 % of adults in LATAM have a bank account; credit-card penetration is even lower.
• NU already has 100 M customers across Brazil, Mexico & Colombia—yet that’s < 30 % of its target population.
Low-cost digital model
• NU’s customer-acquisition cost is ≈ US$5 vs. US banks at US$150+.
• Operating expense per active user is falling every quarter as the app ecosystem scales.
Monetisation runway
• Current revenue-per-user ≈ US$10/mo. Management’s goal: US$20+ via credit lines, insurance, investing & payroll. Doubling ARPU while doubling users = 4× topline without new markets.
Regulatory moat
• Brazil’s open-banking rules favour digital challengers. NU’s banking licence + tech stack makes compliance cheaper than for legacy incumbents.
Founder-led execution
• CEO David Vélez still owns ~18 % of shares; culture remains missionary, not mercenary.
Valuation Snapshot (today)
Market cap: US$60 B
Price / Sales: ~9× (was 30× at IPO)
Net cash: US$4 B + profitable core Brazil ops
> If NU compounds revenue at 25 % and maintains a mid-teens net margin, a 20× earnings multiple in 2034 implies a 10× share price from here.
Key Risks to Track
Credit cycle — Recession could spike charge-offs; watch NPL ratio quarterly.
Currency swings — 70 % of revenue is Brazilian real–denominated.
Competitive copycats — Mercado Pago, Itaú’s digital spinoff. NU must keep innovating.
How I'm Playing It
1. Core position at US$11–12; add on dips.
2. Reinvest quarterly dividends (tiny now, bigger later).
3. Review thesis yearly: customer growth ≥ 20 % & NPLs < 6 %.
Two Honorable Mentions
Rocket Lab (RKLB) — Small-sat launch + space components platform.
Recursion Pharma (RXRX) — AI-driven drug discovery with NVIDIA backing
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