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高胜一筹
06-25

U.S. stocks face "high valuation risks" and need two major factors to "save the market"

智通财经APP获悉，美国股市近期在多重压力下仍屡创新高，但估值过高引发担忧。市场能否持续上涨取决于企业盈利能否超预期或美联储降息。但鉴于估值水平高企，美股盈利超预期门槛很高;与此同时，美联储也表示不急于调整政策。目前，美国股市正遭遇历史上罕见的不利情况。美国银行策略师追踪的 20 种此类估值指标中，标普500指数在每一项指标上都被认为估值过高。他们并未明确说明美联储降息幅度需要达到何种程度才能实现这一目标。

U.S. stocks face "high valuation risks" and need two major factors to "save the market"

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The P/E of the S&P 500 reached 22 times, far exceeding the long-term average of 35%, and many indicators show that it is at a historical high. Whether the market can continue to rise depends on whether corporate earnings can beat expectations or the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. However, in view of the high valuation level, the threshold for US stock profits to exceed expectations is very high; At the same time, the Federal Reserve also said it was in no hurry to adjust its policy.</p><p>Currently, the U.S. stock market is experiencing a historically rare headwinds. In 2025, many unfavorable factors will emerge together: the new U.S. government is struggling to adjust the global order and implement large-scale tariff policies, while conflicts in the Middle East have brought many uncertainties. Despite this, U.S. stocks are still moving against the wind, hitting new highs repeatedly, just one step away from the all-time high.</p><p>But the higher the S&P 500 rises, the more people worry that its P/E are starting to appear too high. The index's current P/E is 22 times expected profits over the next 12 months, which is 35% higher than the long-term average, the data shows.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Of the 20 such valuation metrics tracked by strategists, the S&P 500 is considered overvalued on each of them.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c0551aa361f1ba317ac654c596e6bf4\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"709\" tg-height=\"379\"/></p><p>While valuation itself is not an effective market timing tool, there is a rough measure that can visually reflect this severe disconnect in valuation, given that the stock prices of S&P 500 companies move far beyond their business operations. At this time, investors are facing some key risks. The deadline set by US President Trump on July 9th to reach a tariff agreement with the main trading partners of the United States is approaching, and the next earnings season is about to kick off.</p><p>A Bloomberg model that takes into account factors such as U.S. Treasury Bond yields, earnings per share, and equity risk premiums shows that based on historical data, the reasonable P/E of the S&P 500 index should remain at about 17.7 times, compared with the current P/E at 23.7 times. For P/E to return to a reasonable value level, the profitability of this metric needs to increase by 30% in the next year (assuming the stock price remains unchanged).</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHW\">Charles Schwab</a>Kevin Gordon, senior investment strategist, said: \"The current level of the market is sustainable, but we can't have too high confidence'from now on '. Earnings expectations for the second half of this year may be too optimistic, coupled with P/E approaching cyclical highs, which puts more pressure on earnings growth to exceed expectations. This is not an impossible goal, but the bar is high.\"</p><p>In addition to earnings growth, a sharp Fed rate cut would be another way to close the gap between fundamentals in the S&P 500 and market prices, according to Bloomberg strategists Gina Martin Adams and Michael Casper.</p><p>They didn't specify how far the Fed would need to cut interest rates to achieve that goal. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated his view that policymakers need not rush to adjust policy, but that lower inflation and weak labor hiring could mean rate cuts earlier this year.</p><p>So far, Wall Street strategists have advised investors to view any possible pullback as a buying opportunity-especially in technology and growth stocks, even when fundamentals are bucking against the rise in stock prices.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stocks face \"high valuation risks\" and need two major factors to \"save the market\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stocks face \"high valuation risks\" and need two major factors to \"save the market\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2025-06-25 19:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Zhitong Finance APP has learned that the U.S. stock market has repeatedly hit new highs under multiple pressures recently, but the overvaluation has caused concerns. The P/E of the S&P 500 reached 22 times, far exceeding the long-term average of 35%, and many indicators show that it is at a historical high. Whether the market can continue to rise depends on whether corporate earnings can beat expectations or the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. However, in view of the high valuation level, the threshold for US stock profits to exceed expectations is very high; At the same time, the Federal Reserve also said it was in no hurry to adjust its policy.</p><p>Currently, the U.S. stock market is experiencing a historically rare headwinds. In 2025, many unfavorable factors will emerge together: the new U.S. government is struggling to adjust the global order and implement large-scale tariff policies, while conflicts in the Middle East have brought many uncertainties. Despite this, U.S. stocks are still moving against the wind, hitting new highs repeatedly, just one step away from the all-time high.</p><p>But the higher the S&P 500 rises, the more people worry that its P/E are starting to appear too high. The index's current P/E is 22 times expected profits over the next 12 months, which is 35% higher than the long-term average, the data shows.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>Of the 20 such valuation metrics tracked by strategists, the S&P 500 is considered overvalued on each of them.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c0551aa361f1ba317ac654c596e6bf4\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"709\" tg-height=\"379\"/></p><p>While valuation itself is not an effective market timing tool, there is a rough measure that can visually reflect this severe disconnect in valuation, given that the stock prices of S&P 500 companies move far beyond their business operations. At this time, investors are facing some key risks. The deadline set by US President Trump on July 9th to reach a tariff agreement with the main trading partners of the United States is approaching, and the next earnings season is about to kick off.</p><p>A Bloomberg model that takes into account factors such as U.S. Treasury Bond yields, earnings per share, and equity risk premiums shows that based on historical data, the reasonable P/E of the S&P 500 index should remain at about 17.7 times, compared with the current P/E at 23.7 times. For P/E to return to a reasonable value level, the profitability of this metric needs to increase by 30% in the next year (assuming the stock price remains unchanged).</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHW\">Charles Schwab</a>Kevin Gordon, senior investment strategist, said: \"The current level of the market is sustainable, but we can't have too high confidence'from now on '. Earnings expectations for the second half of this year may be too optimistic, coupled with P/E approaching cyclical highs, which puts more pressure on earnings growth to exceed expectations. This is not an impossible goal, but the bar is high.\"</p><p>In addition to earnings growth, a sharp Fed rate cut would be another way to close the gap between fundamentals in the S&P 500 and market prices, according to Bloomberg strategists Gina Martin Adams and Michael Casper.</p><p>They didn't specify how far the Fed would need to cut interest rates to achieve that goal. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated his view that policymakers need not rush to adjust policy, but that lower inflation and weak labor hiring could mean rate cuts earlier this year.</p><p>So far, Wall Street strategists have advised investors to view any possible pullback as a buying opportunity-especially in technology and growth stocks, even when fundamentals are bucking against the rise in stock prices.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1309647.html\">智通财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e90f0093c95026e18203fb8d91b976d","relate_stocks":{"OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","OEX":"标普100","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1309647.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2546214201","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，美国股市近期在多重压力下仍屡创新高，但估值过高引发担忧。标普500市盈率达22倍，远超长期均值35%，多项指标显示其处于历史高位。市场能否持续上涨取决于企业盈利能否超预期或美联储降息。但鉴于估值水平高企，美股盈利超预期门槛很高;与此同时，美联储也表示不急于调整政策。目前，美国股市正遭遇历史上罕见的不利情况。在2025年，众多不利因素一同出现：美国新政府正费力调整全球秩序、实施大规模关税政策，同时中东地区的冲突又带来了诸多不确定性。尽管如此，美股依然逆风前行，屡创新高，距离历史最高点仅一步之遥。但标普500指数涨得越高，人们就越担心其市盈率开始显得过高。数据显示，该指数目前的市盈率为未来12个月预期利润的 22 倍，比长期平均水平高出 35%。美国银行策略师追踪的 20 种此类估值指标中，标普500指数在每一项指标上都被认为估值过高。虽然估值本身并非有效的市场择时工具，但鉴于标普 500 指数成分股公司的股价走势远超其企业经营状况，有一种粗略的衡量方法能够直观地反映出估值中这种严重脱节的程度。而此时，投资者正面临着一些关键风险。美国总统特朗普于 7 月 9 日设定的与美国主要贸易伙伴达成关税协议的最后期限已日益临近，而下一个财报季也即将拉开帷幕。彭博一项模型考虑了诸如美国国债收益率、每股收益以及股票风险溢价等要素，该模型显示，以历史数据计算，标普500指数的合理市盈率应维持在约17.7倍的水平，而目前的市盈率为 23.7倍。要使市盈率回归到合理价值水平，该指标的盈利水平需在未来一年内增长 30%(假设股价保持不变)。嘉信理财高级投资策略师Kevin Gordon表示：“目前市场的水平是可持续的，但‘从现在起’我们就不能抱有太高的信心了。今年下半年的盈利预期可能过于乐观了，再加上市盈率正接近周期性高点，这就给盈利增长带来了更大的压力，使其必须超过预期。这并非不可能实现的目标，但标准很高。”据彭博策略师Gina Martin Adams和Michael Casper称，除了盈利增长之外，美联储大幅降息也将是使标普500指数中的基本面与市场价格之间的差距缩小的另一种方式。他们并未明确说明美联储降息幅度需要达到何种程度才能实现这一目标。周二，美联储主席鲍威尔重申了他的观点，即政策制定者无需急于调整政策，但较低的通胀水平和劳动力招聘的疲软态势可能意味着今年会更早地进行降息。迄今为止，即便基本面与股价上涨背道而驰，华尔街的策略师们仍建议投资者将任何可能出现的回调视为买入良机——尤其是投资于科技股和成长型股票。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,"SPXU":0.6,"SH":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SSO":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"MESmain":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":528,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":0,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}