To The Moon

Virtual asset licenses spark euphoria — but can fundamentals carry Tiger Brokers the rest of the way?

Is it just me, or did Guotai Junan International forget gravity existed? The stock rocketed 198% intraday on 25 June after news broke of its upgraded Hong Kong license to offer virtual asset trading. That’s not a rally — that’s orbital. Meanwhile, Tiger Brokers quietly padded up 12% in pre-market trading, as investors remembered, 'Wait... don’t they already have a crypto licence?'

Not all rockets wear jet fuel — some leap with claws

Naturally, the next question is whether $Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ )has enough fuel to claw its way to $10 — a neat round figure, and a 45% jump from its current $6.87. But as with any market excitement, we must separate the champagne bubbles from the structural balance.

The Crypto Catalyst: Tiger’s Not New to This Game

Unlike Guotai Junan, which just received regulatory blessing to launch virtual asset services, Tiger already holds a virtual asset trading licence. That means it’s not just poised to enter the digital asset game — it’s already warming up on the sidelines.

The excitement stems from Hong Kong's regulatory shift. Once lukewarm on crypto, the city now seems to be saying: 'Digital gold? Yes, please.' With the SFC’s updated stance, licensed firms can now onboard retail clients, offer stablecoins, and potentially link traditional and decentralised finance in one slick app.

For Tiger, this matters because it already offers a seamless digital brokerage platform and has spent years building infrastructure that could now extend to tokenised assets. This isn’t a meme-stock move. This is a tech-first brokerage with scale, momentum, and — finally — regulatory wind at its back.

A Tiger on the Prowl: The Numbers Behind the Pounce

The fundamentals? Actually quite robust.

In Q1 2025, Tiger’s revenue rose 55.3% year-over-year to $122.6 million. But the bigger roar came from profits, which jumped 145% to $36 million. Trading volume hit a record $217.5 billion — up 154.6% year-over-year — and the firm now manages $45.9 billion in client assets.

Here’s something you might not know: Tiger’s average new client in Hong Kong is depositing over $30,000, a sign it’s capturing higher-quality, higher-net-worth users — ideal candidates for virtual asset trading, where transaction fees scale beautifully.

The valuation, however, is no kitten. A trailing P/E of 50.67x suggests growth expectations are baked in. But unlike Guotai Junan’s frothy 26.9x and negative 5-year earnings trajectory, Tiger’s bottom line is improving fast — and not just from crypto hype. It’s riding a broader shift towards digitised finance and global wealth management.

If this tiger’s stripes could talk, they’d say: watch the bands — momentum loves company.

Momentum builds — but only disciplined predators strike at trend

Guotai’s Ascent: Firework or Flight Plan?

Let’s spare a thought for $GUOTAI JUNAN I(01788)$, whose 198% intraday explosion feels... enthusiastic. The firm’s institutional services revenue surged 90% last year, true, and net margins are holding a respectable 16.1%. But earnings growth over the past five years is down nearly 40% annually. That’s not a trend — that’s a warning sign with hazard tape.

And the real kicker? Analysts still see 34.7% downside from current prices.

What we’re witnessing here is classic market FOMO. Guotai's new crypto license lit the match, and algorithmic traders poured on the fuel. Yes, the firm might leverage its institutional relationships to launch bespoke crypto products for high-net-worth clients — but the valuation now assumes flawless execution. I, for one, am sceptical of miracles.

Can Tiger Hit $10? Let’s Do the Maths

At $10, Tiger Brokers would trade at roughly 70x current earnings. Ambitious? Yes. Impossible? Not quite.

If it continues to scale client assets and boosts monetisation via crypto-related fees, wealth products, or even tokenised ETFs (a possibility not yet priced in), EPS could surge again. Add in sentiment shifts — perhaps a mainland China listing, or further fintech partnerships — and the premium could expand.

Investors often forget: Tiger isn’t just a discount broker. It’s a digital financial platform with embedded wealth management, international expansion, and a sticky, mobile-first user base. In an environment where traditional brokerages struggle to modernise, that’s no small edge.

But we’ll likely need two more quarters of earnings momentum — or a bullish macro event (say, a US spot Ether ETF approval?) — to give this feline the legs to leap meaningfully higher.

Some predators don’t pounce — they wait, calculate, and scale

A Thoughtful Tail-End (With Whiskers of Optimism)

Yes, crypto licenses are sexy. Yes, Guotai’s 198% rally made headlines. But in the calm that follows market euphoria, I’m looking at sustainable upside — and Tiger Brokers wears the stripes of substance.

Its fundamentals are real, its growth is scalable, and its client base is becoming richer and more engaged. The P/E ratio may be lofty, but so was Apple’s — until the iPhone rewrote what was possible.

Can TIGR hit $10? With the right catalysts, strong Q2 results, and continued virtual asset adoption, I think it can. Just don’t expect a moonshot overnight. This Tiger isn’t trying to be a rocket — it’s playing the long game. And in investing, that’s where the real power lies.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_comments @Tiger_SG @Tiger_Earnings @TigerClub@l @koolgal @TigerWire