IMHO, while the procedural vote passage represents a significant but measured victory for crypto regulation. While this clears the path for formal voting, the contentious 9-hour debate and Republican holdouts signal underlying concerns about CBDC implications.
Circle’s Position: Despite the GENIUS Act’s eventual passage through procedural hurdles, Circle’s stock has shown mixed performance, declining 14.2% from July 1-17 despite current trading at $233. This suggests markets are pricing in execution risks rather than celebrating regulatory clarity.
Bitcoin Rally Sustainability: The recent $123,000 peak followed by pullback to $116,000-$119,000 range indicates profit-taking pressure. While institutional adoption continues driving demand, J.P. Morgan’s conservative stablecoin growth forecast of $500 billion by 2028 (versus bullish $2 trillion projections) suggests tempered expectations.
Key Risks: The bills face Senate hurdles and implementation challenges. Circle’s 400x P/E ratio and revenue dependence on interest rates create fundamental vulnerabilities. Additionally, 88% of stablecoin demand remains crypto-native rather than payments-focused, limiting mainstream adoption potential.
My take: The crypto bills provide regulatory tailwinds but don’t guarantee explosive growth. Circle benefits from clarity but faces valuation concerns and competitive pressures. Bitcoin’s rally may consolidate around $110,000 before next leg up, driven more by institutional flows than legislative outcomes.
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- Porter Harry·07-18Nice sharing! I think that as the bills are passed, crypto-related financial assets will be more convenient to be invested and I expect there will be a long-term bullish trend of crypto.LikeReport