To The Moon

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ 🧠🚨📉 Nvidia’s $4T Juggernaut Faces a Crossroad 📉🚨🧠

Nvidia ($NVDA) didn’t just break records; it redefined the concept of market dominance. At a jaw-dropping $4T market cap, it now towers above Meta + Alphabet combined, surpasses both Apple and Amazon together, and overshadows the entire consumer sector with ease. But while Wall Street basks in the afterglow of its AI-fueled rally, fresh data, insider whispers, and dark pool flows suggest something more nuanced: a final euphoric push, followed by a seismic recalibration.

🔍 Setup

I’m tracking an inflection zone. $NVDA closed at $172.41 with over $560M in dark pool transactions flashing across the tape on 18Jul25. Size blocks: 1.8M, 347K, 340K, 260K, all at the same price — hint at algo-controlled distribution at scale. Premiums totalled more than $560M. Whales are active, but so is caution.

Technicals? Resistance looms at $178.42, where a likely bull trap could trigger mean reversion. My downside reaccumulation range: $98–$82. That’s where the next leg of the AI supercycle could ignite.

📊 Fundamentals

Q1 FY26: $44B in revenue, +69% YoY. Data center sales: $39B, a staggering 89% of total revenue. Gaming? $3.8B. Nvidia isn’t a GPU company anymore; it’s an AI infrastructure empire.

Now guiding for Q2 revenue of $45B (+50% YoY). Forward P/E sits at 29x, which, given its dominant moat, still looks compelling, but only if forward growth holds up under global pressure.

🔥 Catalyst

Taiwan Semiconductor ($TSM), Nvidia’s exclusive AI foundry, just blew past expectations:

• Q2 Revenue: $30.1B (+39% YoY)

• EPS: $2.47 (vs est. $2.38)

• 74% of wafer sales = 7nm and smaller (AI chips)

CEO C.C. Wei confirmed: AI demand remains “robust” and forecast 30% revenue growth for 2025. If TSMC’s blowing the doors off, Nvidia’s supply chain strength is real and still ramping.

But geopolitical tremors matter.

🌏 China Risk & Supply Shocks

On 19Jul25, Reuters reported Nvidia has “limited supplies” of its H20 AI chips for 🇨🇳 China, the most advanced it’s allowed to sell under US restrictions. The April ban forced Nvidia to cancel orders and production slots at TSMC. Restarting those chips would take nine months.

Though Jensen Huang remains optimistic, quietly developing a new RTX Pro GPU for China, reports say there are no current plans to restart H20 chip production. The bottleneck’s real, and while Nvidia awaits Trump administration license approval, the clock ticks.

🧠 Strategic Insight

Let’s be clear: Nvidia isn’t priced like a hope-stock. It’s priced like an empire that must grow exponentially to justify valuation gravity.

The bulls argue:

• China’s AI buildout is accelerating

• US chipmakers are consolidating supply chain edge

• Generative AI has just scratched the surface

But what happens if China demand stagnates, licenses lag, and edge compute outpaces GPUs?

There’s no margin for error at $4T.

📉 Macro Rotation & Sentiment

Rates are sticky, fiscal stimulus is fading, and positioning is crowded. Nvidia’s RSI is elevated, implied volatility is climbing, and retail traders are loaded on weekly calls. This is where smart money lightens up.

And yet, structurally, AI demand hasn’t broken. If anything, the TSMC earnings print confirms that the foundations of this rally remain intact. That’s what makes this moment pivotal, and the looming pullback healthy.

🧠 Anecdotal Analogy

Imagine you’re running a marathon and 70% of the crowd believes the finish line is at mile 20. Nvidia’s already sprinted to mile 25. It’s not that the race is over; it’s just that the pace needs to recalibrate before another surge.

📈 Valuation in Context

Look at Statista’s latest chart. Nvidia at $4T equals Meta + Alphabet. Surpasses Microsoft. Leaves legacy brands like Disney, McDonald’s, Coca-Cola, and Netflix in the dust. It’s become an AI sovereign nation unto itself.

But at this altitude, even a breeze feels like a storm.

🏁 Final Thought

This isn’t about calling a top. It’s about understanding the weight of expectations. The next big run will likely emerge not from euphoria, but from exhaustion and a reset. The evidence points to a final wave up into $178–$180 before the air gets thin.

These are not predictions. They’re probability-weighted frameworks.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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