To The Moon

$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$ $Carvana Co.(CVNA)$ $GameStop(GME)$ 🚨📉📈 Opendoor’s 100‑Bag Rebirth: Can It Replicate Carvana’s Explosive Surge? 📈📉🚨

🔥 A $1.2M put write didn’t just draw a line; it flipped the entire script!

On 21Jul25, $1.275M in premium was sold to open on the $OPEN 4 P 01Aug25 contract. Over 10,658 contracts traded, 98% filled on the bid with zero open interest. That same session, $OPEN surged +88.6% to close at $4.25, driven by $15.9M in net call premium against collapsing put flow of −$3.56M. That wasn’t protection, it was conviction. Someone just said: this will not revisit $4.

But this move wasn’t sudden. It was the culmination of a quiet but comprehensive reversal: fundamental, technical, institutional, and macro.

📉 From Silicon Valley icon to delisting threat

At its 2021 peak, Opendoor hit $39 per share with a $25B valuation. The pitch was elegant: algorithmic pricing and instant cash offers would digitize home selling. But rising rates torpedoed the model. Inventory swelled, liquidity vanished, and by early 2024, $OPEN was priced for failure, trading under $1, facing a reverse split vote and at risk of NASDAQ delisting.

📈 Wall Street dismissed it, insiders doubled down

While short interest climbed from 12% in April to 24% by July, insiders quietly accumulated. CEO David Benson and board member Glenn Solomon each purchased 100,000 shares near $0.50. That’s not optics, that’s positioning.

Under the surface, Opendoor was executing a strategic overhaul:

• Operating expenses slashed by 40%

• Inventory risk dramatically reduced

• Shift to asset-light agent partnership model

• Targeting its first profitable quarter in 3 years (Q2 earnings due 05Aug25)

🧠 The squeeze mechanics set in fast

Technicals confirmed what fundamentals hinted:

• 01Jul25: Price reclaimed $1 for the first time in months

• 10Jul25: Cleared the 200-day moving average

• 15Jul25: Volume exploded to 536M shares

• 20Jul25: Price hit $2.50, a +400% move in 3 weeks

• 21Jul25: Closed $4.25, absorbing heavy OTM puts and flipping resistance to support

With 22% of the float short, borrowing costs soaring, and price action accelerating, margin calls began. Every cover drove more pain. This is how structural squeezes ignite.

🐋 Institutional flows confirmed it wasn’t just retail

• 18Jul25: $741K swept into the $2.5 C 08Aug25 call

• 21Jul25: $1.2M sold into $4 puts

• 17Jul25: $309K flowed into $GME 26 C 19Sep25, with 1,411 of 1,660 contracts converting to open interest (85%) the next day

This wasn’t speculative noise, it was deliberate capital deployment across asymmetrical setups, exactly where retail was focused.

📊 Social momentum turned into critical mass

Opendoor soared to the #1 trending stock on r/wallstreetbets. Reddit threads exploded. X mentions multiplied. Google Trends showed a spike in “Opendoor stock” searches. More than a dozen $OPEN options posts on WSB amassed over 2,000 comments in 24 hours. Retail remembered 2021 and was ready to mobilize again.

🏠 But unlike GameStop, this has a macro tailwind

• U.S. housing activity is stabilizing

• New listings up 6.2% YoY in May

• Mortgage rates are beginning to ease

• Goldman Sachs and Moody’s both forecast rising home prices through 2026

Every future rate cut will reduce inventory carrying costs and reaccelerate transaction volume, directly benefiting Opendoor’s business model. This isn’t narrative-driven, it’s macro-reinforced.

🧾 The fundamentals are catching up fast

• Q2 earnings expected to show positive EBITDA, the first in 3 years

• Home inventory has normalized

• New revenue is scaling via agent partnerships

• Valuation still deeply discounted: 0.57x P/S and 4.56x P/B

• At $0.51, $OPEN’s market cap was $300M against $7B in trailing revenue

Short sellers have over $500M at risk. The asymmetry is extreme.

📈 Technically, the breakout structure is intact and accelerating

• Weekly breakout candle posted a +189% move

• Closed above former resistance at $2.25, now flipped to support

• All key moving averages reclaimed (MA5, MA10, MA20, MA30)

• Momentum channel remains intact heading into the Aug earnings catalyst

• Volume shelf support forming at $2.80 and $3.50 

📊 Strategic Rotation Setup: OSCR’s Structural Gap Fill in Motion 🚀

The $OSCR chart presents a compelling asymmetric setup that complements the high-momentum $OPEN thesis. At $13.42, Oscar Health is riding along a clean uptrend channel with multiple bullish technical signals aligning with structural fundamentals.

The chart highlights a gap zone between $16.20 and $20.50, with price currently retesting both the lower bound of a broad ascending channel and a prior breakout neckline. The bounce off $13.30 confirms buyer defense at trend support, while the confluence of intersecting diagonal support lines suggests accumulation beneath the surface.

From a structural perspective, this isn’t noise. The overlapping Fibonacci trend extensions and the rising EMA channel argue for a potential measured move toward the $20.50 gap fill in the medium term. A successful reclaim of $16.00 would confirm momentum continuity toward the upper bound of the expansion zone, while risk is well-defined below $12.80.

Fundamentally, Oscar Health has shown improving operating leverage, high retention in ACA plans, and a scalable insurtech model. With 80% YoY revenue growth and a five-year CAGR that rivals top-tier digital health peers, the risk-reward narrative becomes clearer with each retest of support.

The setup is clean, the risk is defined, and the upside gap magnet remains active. This is a high-conviction watchlist candidate for strategic rotation in line with retail momentum and gap-structure traders.

🗓 Upcoming catalysts are stacked

• 28Jul25: Shareholder vote on reverse split

• 05Aug25: Q2 earnings, expected profitability trigger

• 15Aug25: Deadline to regain NASDAQ listing compliance

Each catalyst builds on the last. The calendar is compressing into volatility.

🔁 Opendoor vs Carvana: this is the part where history rhymes

Carvana went from $3.90 to over $60, a +1,400% gain, after executing a similar reversal: strategic cost control, insider belief, structural squeeze mechanics, and renewed profitability. Now valued over $50B, it proved the market can be wildly wrong on the way down.

Eric Jackson, the same hedge fund manager who called Carvana’s recovery early, is now leading the Opendoor thesis. He’s issued a bold long-term projection: $OPEN could become a 100-bagger over the next few years. The chart now mirrors early-stage Carvana, with the macro working in Opendoor’s favor.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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