To The Moon

To forecast Palantir Technologies (PLTR) earnings and possible price targets for the next year based on the past year's data, I'll analyze key financial metrics, analyst expectations, and stock performance trends, while acknowledging the limitations of forward-looking projections. The analysis draws on recent financial data, analyst reports, and market sentiment, primarily from the provided web and X post references.

### 1. Past Year Financial Performance (2024–2025)

Palantir has shown robust growth in 2024 and early 2025, driven by strong demand for its AI-driven software platforms, particularly in U.S. commercial and government sectors. Key financial highlights from the past year include:

- **Revenue Growth**:

  - Q3 2024: Revenue of $725.5M, up 30% year-over-year (YoY).

  - Q4 2024: Revenue of $776M, up 36% YoY, beating analyst expectations of $752.4M.

  - Q1 2025: Revenue of $883.9M, up 39% YoY, surpassing estimates of $862M.[](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/05/palantir-pltr-q1-earnings-report-2025.html)

  - Full-year 2024 revenue: $2.87B, up 28.79% from $2.23B in 2023.[](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/pltr/)

  - Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for revenue over the past 5 years: 31%.[](https://www.alphaspread.com/security/nyse/pltr/analyst-estimates)

  - U.S. commercial revenue grew 71% YoY in Q1 2025, reaching a $1B annual run rate, while U.S. government revenue grew 45% YoY.[](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/05/palantir-pltr-q1-earnings-report-2025.html)

- **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**:

  - Q3 2024: GAAP EPS of $0.06.

  - Q4 2024: EPS of $0.11, beating estimates of $0.08.

  - Q1 2025: EPS of $0.13, meeting estimates of $0.13.[](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/05/palantir-pltr-q1-earnings-report-2025.html)

  - Full-year 2024 EPS: $0.08, with analysts expecting $0.37 for 2025, implying 362.5% growth.[](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/palantir-technologies-q2-2025-earnings-140335241.html)

  - PLTR has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time in the past 12 months.[](https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/pltr/forecast)

- **Net Income**:

  - Q1 2025: Net income of $214M, up from $105.5M in Q1 2024 (120.27% growth).[](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/05/palantir-pltr-q1-earnings-report-2025.html)

  - Full-year 2024 earnings: $462.19M, up 120.27% from 2023.[](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/pltr/)

  - Projected net income CAGR for the next 3 years: 73%.[](https://www.alphaspread.com/security/nyse/pltr/analyst-estimates)

- **Other Metrics**:

  - Customer count increased 39% YoY to 769 in Q1 2025.[](https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/pltr/earnings)

  - U.S. commercial Total Contract Value (TCV) closed at $810M in Q1 2025, up 239% YoY.[](https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/pltr/earnings)

  - Full-year 2025 revenue guidance raised to $3.89B–$3.90B (36% YoY growth).[](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/05/palantir-pltr-q1-earnings-report-2025.html)

  - Adjusted free cash flow guidance for 2025: $1.6B–$1.8B.[](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/05/palantir-pltr-q1-earnings-report-2025.html)

### 2. Earnings Forecast for the Next Year (2025–2026)

Assuming the current growth trends continue, we can project earnings based on historical growth rates, analyst forecasts, and guidance:

- **Revenue Forecast**:

  - Analysts expect Q2 2025 revenue of $937.45M (range: $905M–$959.56M), up from $883.86M in Q1 2025, implying 6% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) growth and ~38% YoY growth.[](https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/pltr/forecast)[](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NASDAQ-PLTR/forecast/)

  - Full-year 2025 revenue guidance is $3.89B–$3.90B, a 36% YoY increase from 2024’s $2.87B.[](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/05/palantir-pltr-q1-earnings-report-2025.html)

  - For 2026, assuming a sustained revenue CAGR of 33% (projected for the next 3 years), revenue could reach approximately **$5.17B–$5.19B** ($3.90B × 1.33).[](https://www.alphaspread.com/security/nyse/pltr/analyst-estimates)

  - If U.S. commercial revenue maintains its 68% YoY growth rate, it could exceed $2B in 2026, with government revenue growing at a more modest 26% CAGR.[](https://247wallst.com/forecasts/2025/07/07/palantir-technologies-pltr-price-prediction-and-forecast-2025-2030/)

- **EPS Forecast**:

  - Analysts expect Q2 2025 EPS of $0.14 (range: $0.13–$0.16), up from $0.13 in Q1 2025.[](https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/pltr/forecast)

  - Full-year 2025 EPS is projected at $0.37, a 362.5% increase from $0.08 in 2024.[](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/palantir-technologies-q2-2025-earnings-140335241.html)

  - For 2026, assuming net income grows at a 73% CAGR, EPS could reach approximately **$0.64** ($0.37 × 1.73), based on 2.26B shares outstanding.[](https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/pltr)[](https://www.alphaspread.com/security/nyse/pltr/analyst-estimates)

  - This assumes continued margin expansion, with operating margins potentially reaching 35–40% as the company scales.[](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/palantir-stock-soars-all-time-highs-my-prediction-what-comes-next)

- **Net Income Forecast**:

  - With a 73% CAGR, net income could grow from $462.19M in 2024 to approximately **$800M–$820M** in 2025 and **$1.38B–$1.42B** in 2026.[](https://www.alphaspread.com/security/nyse/pltr/analyst-estimates)

  - This is supported by Palantir’s high gross margin (80%) and improving operating margin (13% trailing 12 months, with potential to reach 35–40%).[](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/palantir-stock-soars-all-time-highs-my-prediction-what-comes-next)

### 3. Price Target Forecast

To estimate price targets, we consider analyst consensus, valuation multiples, and stock performance trends:

- **Current Analyst Price Targets**:

  - As of July 2025, the average 12-month price target is $91.37–$109.76, with a range of $40–$168.[](https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/PLTR/forecast/)[](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NASDAQ-PLTR/forecast/)[](https://www.alphaspread.com/security/nyse/pltr/analyst-estimates)

  - Median price target: $105.29, implying a 21.64% downside from the current price of ~$153.52 (as of July 18, 2025).[](https://247wallst.com/forecasts/2025/07/07/palantir-technologies-pltr-price-prediction-and-forecast-2025-2030/)[](https://stockinvest.us/stock/PLTR)

  - Specific upgrades:

    - Wedbush: $160 (from $140).[](https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/pltr/forecast)

    - Loop Capital: $155 (from $130).[](https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/pltr/forecast)

    - Mizuho: Neutral rating with a raised target, citing “stunning” momentum.[](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/pltr/)

    - Main Street Research: $135.

  - Analyst consensus rating: “Hold,” with 11 Buy, 14 Hold, and 5 Sell ratings in the past 3 months.[](https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/pltr/forecast)

- **Valuation Multiples**:

  - Current P/E ratio: 667.48 (TTM EPS of $0.23).[](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/)

  - Forward P/E (based on 2025 EPS of $0.37): ~414 ($153.52 ÷ $0.37).

  - Price-to-Sales (P/S): 94 (market cap $362.29B ÷ 2024 revenue $2.87B).[](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/)[](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/palantir-stock-soars-all-time-highs-my-prediction-what-comes-next)

  - Price-to-Book (P/B): 53.35.[](https://www.gurufocus.com/stock/PLTR/forecast)

  - Analysts suggest a forward P/E of 60 in 5 years, assuming 39% revenue growth and margin expansion.[](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/palantir-stock-soars-all-time-highs-my-prediction-what-comes-next)

  - For 2026, with projected EPS of $0.64 and a P/E of 60, the price target would be **$38.40** ($0.64 × 60), indicating significant downside unless growth exceeds expectations or valuation multiples remain elevated.

  - Using a P/S ratio of 40 (lower than the current 94, reflecting potential compression), with 2026 revenue of $5.18B, the market cap would be ~$207.2B, implying a price of **$91.50** ($207.2B ÷ 2.26B shares).

- **Stock Performance Trends**:

  - PLTR stock rose 418.3% over the past 52 weeks, outperforming the S&P 500 (+11.6%) and Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (+10.2%).[](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/palantir-technologies-q2-2025-earnings-140335241.html)

  - Year-to-date 2025: Up 64%, driven by AI demand and government contracts.[](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/05/palantir-pltr-q1-earnings-report-2025.html)

  - 5-year return: Over 1,100%.[](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/palantir-stock-soars-all-time-highs-my-prediction-what-comes-next)

  - Technical indicators suggest overbought conditions (e.g., high P/E, RSI), with potential pullbacks to $100–$120, as noted by some analysts.[](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/pltr/)[](https://stockinvest.us/stock/PLTR)

- **Possible Price Targets for 2026**:

  - **Bull Case**: Assumes sustained 33% revenue growth, 73% net income growth, and a forward P/E of 100 (reflecting AI-driven optimism). EPS of $0.64 yields a price target of **$64**, a 58% downside from $153.52. If sentiment remains strong and P/E stays elevated (e.g., 200), the target could reach **$128**, a 16.7% downside.

  - **Base Case**: Using analyst consensus P/E of 60 and P/S of 40, the price target is **$38.40–$91.50**, implying 40–75% downside, consistent with analyst views of overvaluation.[](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/palantir-stock-soars-all-time-highs-my-prediction-what-comes-next)[](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/pltr/)

  - **Bear Case**: If growth slows (e.g., 20% revenue CAGR), international sales weaken further, or valuation multiples contract significantly (P/E to 30, P/S to 20), the price could drop to **$19.20–$50**, a 67–88% downside.

  - **Optimistic Scenario**: If Palantir secures additional high-value contracts (e.g., similar to the $219M Kobayashi Maru extension or ICE contract) and maintains a P/E of 150, the price could reach **$96** ($0.64 × 150), a 37.5% downside.[](https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/pltr)[](https://247wallst.com/forecasts/2025/07/07/palantir-technologies-pltr-price-prediction-and-forecast-2025-2030/)

### 4. Key Assumptions and Risks

- **Assumptions**:

  - Continued AI demand and U.S. government/commercial contract wins drive growth.

  - Margin expansion occurs as sales and marketing costs decrease as a percentage of revenue.

  - Market sentiment for AI stocks remains strong, supporting elevated valuations.

  - No significant macroeconomic disruptions or regulatory changes impact Palantir’s operations.

- **Risks**:

  - **Valuation Concerns**: PLTR’s P/E (667.48) and P/S (94) are significantly stretched compared to peers, suggesting overvaluation.[](https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/pltr/)[](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/palantir-stock-soars-all-time-highs-my-prediction-what-comes-next)

  - **International Weakness**: A 10% YoY decline in global sales in Q1 2025 raised concerns about international growth sustainability.[](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/palantir-technologies-q2-2025-earnings-140335241.html)

  - **Dependence on Government Contracts**: Heavy reliance on U.S. government revenue (71% of Q1 2025 revenue) poses risks if federal spending is cut.[](https://www.investing.com/equities/palantir-technologies-inc-earnings)

  - **Market Volatility**: High beta (2.64) and overbought technical indicators increase the risk of a pullback.[](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PLTR/)[](https://stockinvest.us/stock/PLTR)

  - **Competition**: Peers like CrowdStrike, C3.ai, or Palantir’s competitors in data analytics/AI could erode market share.

### 5. Conclusion

Based on the past year’s data and current trends, Palantir is likely to continue strong revenue (33% CAGR) and earnings growth (73% CAGR) through 2026, driven by its AI platforms and U.S. market dominance. Projected 2026 revenue is ~$5.17B–$5.19B, with EPS of ~$0.64 and net income of ~$1.38B–$1.42B. However, the stock’s high valuation suggests limited upside and significant downside risk. Price targets for 2026 range from **$38.40 (base case, P/E 60)** to **$128 (bull case, P/E 200)**, with a median of ~$91.50 (P/S 40), implying a 40–75% downside from the current price of $153.52 unless growth exceeds expectations or valuation multiples remain elevated.

For investors, the high P/E and P/S ratios suggest caution, as the stock may be overvalued despite strong fundamentals. A pullback to $100–$120, as suggested by some analysts, could present a better entry point. Monitor upcoming Q2 2025 earnings (August 4, 2025) for updates on international sales and contract wins, which could influence the trajectory. Always consider consulting a financial advisor for personalized investment decisions, as these projections are speculative and subject to market risks.

Grok analysis. I think Pltr will outperform again. Base price of pltr by AI analysis has increased $20 monthly. I believe in $500 per share in near future. What about you ? Alster, are u there?