To The Moon

Economic Calendar: Key Market Movers (week of 28Jul25)

Public Holidays

There are no public holidays in China, Singapore, America or Hong Kong.

The upcoming week features several critical economic announcements that will shape market sentiment and influence central bank policy.

United States

• Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.50%. This decision will be the week's most closely watched event.

• Inflation Data: The Core PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, will be released and closely scrutinised for its potential impact on future monetary policy.

• GDP Growth: The Q2 US GDP report will provide insights into economic performance, with a weaker-than-expected outcome potentially leading to increased market volatility.

• Consumer Sentiment & Employment: CB Consumer Confidence will be announced, with a decline from the previous 93.0 potentially signalling dampened consumption.

• Key labour market indicators, including JOLTS Job Openings, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Payrolls, and the Unemployment Rate, are scheduled for release. These employment figures are crucial for the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of balancing inflation and employment.

• Manufacturing PMIs: Several manufacturing indices will be released, including S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (forecast at 49.5, indicating contraction), ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing Prices (following a strong increase), and Chicago PMI (after a previous contraction to 40.4).

China

• Manufacturing PMI: China's Manufacturing PMI will be announced, with the previous reading at 49.7 indicating contraction. This data point is a significant reference for global consumption trends.

This week's data releases will provide a comprehensive view of global economic health and offer insights for investors and policymakers alike.

Earnings Calendar (28Jul25)

These are earnings of interest for the coming week:

Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Visa, UPS, Starbucks, Mastercard, ExxonMobil, Chevron, Boeing, Coinbase and P&G. This week of earnings can be a good reference for market outlook. We have company earnings from the petrochemical, consumer products, technology and payment sectors. These can give a good gauge of the economy’s health.

Let us look at Coinbase.

Coinbase Global, Inc. operates a platform for crypto assets in the United States and internationally. It offers the primary financial account in the crypto economy for consumers, a brokerage platform with a pool of liquidity across the crypto marketplace for institutions, and a suite of products granting access to build on-chain for developers. The company was founded in 2012 and is based in New York, New York. Beta: 3.62 Share Turnover: 1412%

A screen shot of a chart AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Technical Analysis recommends a “Buy” rating. The Analysts Sentiment has a “Buy” rating. With the price target of $333.54, this implies a downside of 14.84%. The stock price has risen 61.2% from a year ago.

A screenshot of a computer AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Recent Performance

• The revenue grew from $534 million in 2019 to $6.56 billion in 2024

• The gross profit grew from $452 million in 2019 to $4.9 billion in 2024

• Operating profit started with a loss of $36 million in 2019 and ended in 2024 with a profit of $2.23 billion. This is an improvement since they fell from 2021’s peak and had loss-making years in 2022 and 2023.

• The Earnings per share (EPS) started with -$0.17 in 2019 and ended the year 2024 with $9.48. This is a marked improvement from the losses incurred in 2022 & 2023.

Based on the above analysis, I prefer to monitor Coinbase for now.

Market Outlook of S&P500 (28Jul25)

Technical observations:

• MACD - another top crossover is completed, which implies an uptrend.

• Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing an uptrend.

• Both the 50 MA line and the 200 MA line are showing an uptrend. This speaks of a bullish outlook for both the short and long term.

• The CMF is positive at 0.31, indicating more buying pressure over the past 20 periods. We have noted a decline in buying momentum.

The technical analysis is showing a “Strong Buy” rating based on the daily interval.

20 indicators show a “Buy” rating and none with a “Sell” rating.

Candlestick Analysis (taken from Grok):

Short-Term Trend (Next Week, July 28–August 1, 2025): Bearish

• The Evening Star (completed June 22) and Bearish Engulfing (emerging July 23) are strong bearish reversal patterns, indicating the end of the uptrend from 5,345.01 to 6,000.36. The drop to 5,672.33 (-0.33% on July 23) suggests this correction is gaining momentum.

• The Doji (July 22) indicates indecision, but the follow-through Bearish Engulfing confirms selling pressure. The coming week could see further declines unless a bullish reversal pattern (e.g., Morning Star) emerges.

• Prior technical analysis (June 2) highlighted support at 5,796.34 (200 MA) and 5,629.83 (50 MA). The price at 5,672.33 is below the 200 MA, reinforcing the bearish short-term outlook.

Long-Term Trend: Neutral to Bearish

• The long-term bullish trend, supported by the rally to 6,000.36 and the 200 MA as support, has weakened. The Evening Star’s completion and the decline below 5,845.90 (June 16) to 5,672.33 suggest a potential trend reversal or deep correction.

• The bullish patterns from April to June (e.g., Morning Doji Star, Bullish Doji Star) drove the recovery, but the current bearish signals indicate a shift. The long-term trend will remain neutral if the price holds above 5,629.83; a sustained break below this level could turn it bearish.

While I rely largely on the MACD indicator, the recent candlestick patterns have suggested some bearish pressure. It is possible for the S&P 500 index to range. We can expect some profit-taking. Events like Q2 earnings, Core PCE data and FOMC interest rate decision should add to the volatility. With the above in mind, the S&P 500 can either climb or range sideways. However, we should not rule out some correction either.

News and my thoughts from the past week (28Jul25)

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US auto loan delinquency rates keep on surging: Subprime auto loan delinquency rates just crossed above 5% for the first time in history. Since 2022, the 60-day delinquency rate for subprime auto loans has more than DOUBLED. Delinquency rates are now above the peak levels recorded in 2008 and 2020. Furthermore, prime auto loan 60-day delinquencies have risen to their highest in 14 years. All while the share of auto loan balances at least 90 days past due hit 5% in Q1 2025, in-line with the 2020 pandemic high. The car market bubble is bursting. - X user The KobeIssi Letter

Apart from banks, rising auto loan delinquencies most affect (from Grok):

• Auto manufacturers (e.g., GM, Ford): Reduced sales from tighter credit and lower demand.

• Dealerships: Fewer financed purchases, inventory pileup.

• Non-bank lenders (e.g., Ally, Credit Acceptance): Higher defaults on subprime loans.

• Used car retailers (e.g., Carvana): A Flood of repossessed vehicles is depressing prices.

• Repossession firms: Surge in workload, but potential oversupply risks. Based on 2025 Fed and industry data.

Americans now spend more on health care than groceries or housing, with health care accounting for approximately 20% of household expenditures, according to the New York Times.

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The US M2 money supply surged +4.5% YoY in June to a record $22.02 trillion. This marks the 20th consecutive monthly increase and the largest increase since July 2022. The surge brings M2 closer to the 2000–2025 average annual growth rate of 6.3%. Additionally, inflation-adjusted M2 rose +1.8% YoY last month. For perspective, US M2 Money Supply was ~$8.46 trillion, or 62% lower, at the end of the 2008 Financial Crisis. The US Dollar's purchasing power is in a perpetual bear market. - X user The KobeIssi Letter

Nvidia, Apple and Microsoft currently account for ~20% of the entire S&P 500. - X user Geiger Capital

Inbound container volume fell 7.9% in June from a year before, after a 6.6% drop in May, based on the 10 largest U.S. ports. The declines more than wiped out a nearly 10% increase tied to inventory front-loading in April, and left the second quarter down 1.8% from a year earlier. - TT News

"Retail investors are turning away from AI," per CNBC

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For June 2025: US govt revenue $526 billion US gov interest payments $144 billion. On our $37 trillion debt, we paid 27% of all government revenue in interest payments for the national debt. - X user Wall Street Mav

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Warren Buffett indicator has now officially entered the exosphere. 208% - X user The Great Martis

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The AI BUBBLE may be bigger than the 2000 Dot-Com BUBBLE: The top 10 stocks' 12-month forward P/E is now 28x, larger than the 25x seen in 2000. Additionally, nearly 40% of the S&P 500 is made up of the 10 largest stocks, the highest share EVER. Truly wild. - X user Global Markets Investor

My Investing Muse (28Jul25)

Layoffs & Closure news

• Microsoft laid off ~16,000+ workers in 2025 (so far). Filed 6,000+ H-1B visa applications. To me, it was about the optics more than anything. The job market isn’t great. H1B isn’t new. But damn, y’all… They told the media it was “just flattening management.” (Only 17% of those cut were actually managers.) The real story? Headcount is shifting... to AI, to vendors, to overseas teams. This is labour arbitrage. - X user Amanda Goodall

• 58% of students who graduated within the last year are still looking for their first job, according to a recent report from Kickresume. - X user Unusual Whales

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• US small farm bankruptcies hit 173 in the H1 2025, the highest since the 2020 CRISIS. Over the last 2 years, bankruptcies jumped 150%. High interest rates, trade tensions, and collapsing Chinese demand are crushing farm margins. - X user Global Markets Investor

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The BLS just said the number of jobs reported for the 9 months ending December 2024 was likely overstated by ~800,000. This comes as the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data, covering 97% of employers, showed the US added 607,000 jobs during this period. This is 57% lower than the initially reported 1.4 million in the monthly non-farm payroll (NFP) reports. In other words, there was an unprecedented 793,000 gap between NFP data and QCEW data in March-December 2024. This means jobs were likely overstated by 88,111 PER MONTH, on average, during this time. Something does not add up here. - X user The Kobeissi Letter

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• As the goods economy has slowed, UPS has been feeling the pain. They've taken the unprecedented step to reduce their driver workforce by 20,000. This does not happen in a robust goods economy. - X user Craig Fuller

The above are some news items about layoffs and closures. As tariff negotiations drag on, the collateral to businesses (especially smaller ones) can compound.

What America’s real estate says about the Recession

America's Largest Home Builder, DR Horton, just reported 24% decline in net income. Less revenue, less income and revised guidance incoming at 8:30 Eastern - X user Mr Awsumb

“So, if you go back to January of 2000, and where a home should be based on just inflation over the last 25 years, homes are overvalued. Home prices nationwide need to come down about 29 to 30%.” - Nick Rizzolo / Fox News

Austin, TX home values have now contracted 3 years in a row. -13.9% in 2023 -4.2% in 2024 -5.4% in 2025. Note that this is the biggest housing correction Austin has experienced in the last 25+ years. Even bigger than what occurred in the GFC. - X user Nick Gerli

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Home builders have 9.8 months of supply on their lots. Has only happened 6 other times in U.S. history. 5 times it led to a recession. - X user Nick Gerli

The American Real Estate cannot be the only indicator used for recession. We need to combine the following:

• Employment data: Rising unemployment would amplify housing market weakness.

• Consumer confidence: Further declines could reduce demand further, as noted by D.R. Horton’s CEO.

• Federal Reserve policy: Rate cuts could ease pressure, while sustained high rates might exacerbate corrections.

• Regional trends: If corrections spread beyond Texas and Florida, recession risks would rise.

My final thoughts

WSJ has made a statement: “Why are the stocks up? Nobody knows”. Should this not be a concern?

Headline by WSJ

The below quote is a timely reminder from the late Charlie Munger about waiting.

"The big money is not in the buying or selling, but in the waiting." — Charlie Munger

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June had the highest margin debt balance ever (FINRA). It is now a modest $1 trillion. 25% up from last year. - X user Canada Stats hub

From FIRNA, Securities Margin Account reached USD$1.07 trillion in June 2025. This may not affect the fundamentals, but the “magnitude” of this Margin Call can be significant during a market decline.

Buffett told a 1991 audience at the University of Notre Dame, "The two biggest weak links in my experience: I’ve seen more people fail because of liquor and leverage – leverage being borrowed money." He specifically warned against being infatuated with how much money can borrow and not giving enough thought to how much money you can pay back." - Investopedia

While it is tempting, let us avoid using leverage for our investments. The magnitude of the returns can be great, but the extent of failure is not far from financial ruin. If we view this from a risk-reward lens, this does not make sense to me. If we have already used leverage, I hope that there is an option for us to make a payment and reduce the leverage.

Let us review our expenditures, income, and savings. Let us spend within our means, invest with what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. I am reviewing my holdings and plan to cut losses with businesses losing their competitive advantages. I would also consider hedging and adding some defensive positions.

Let us conduct our due diligence before taking on any positions. Let us have a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$

$S&P 500(.SPX)$

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$