To The Moon

Singapore’s earnings season is heating up, with the Straits Times Index (STI) riding a historic 14-day winning streak to all-time highs near 3,800 points. However, Singapore Airlines (SIA) cast a shadow with its Q1 2025 results, reporting a 59% net profit plunge to S$186 million, despite a 1.5% revenue increase to S$4.79 billion. As investors brace for earnings from Keppel, Seatrium, First REIT, and OCBC this week, the question looms: can these companies defy SIA’s gloom and deliver robust results? With tariff tensions and global volatility in play, this report dives into the earnings outlook for Keppel, Seatrium, First REIT, and OCBC, analyzing their potential to beat expectations and offering strategic investment approaches to navigate the season.

Market Context: A High-Stakes Earnings Week

The STI’s unprecedented rally reflects strong investor confidence, driven by banking, telecommunications, and real estate investment trusts (REITs). However, global headwinds, including Trump’s tariffs (30% on EU/Mexico, 35% on Canada, effective August 1) and the Israel-Iran conflict (oil at $75/barrel), could disrupt sentiment. The Federal Reserve’s July 30, 2025, decision, with a 64% chance of a September rate cut, adds another layer of uncertainty. The S&P 500’s record high at 6,263.26 and Nasdaq’s 21,000 milestone signal bullish momentum, but a VIX at 15.94 warns of volatility. SIA’s profit slump sets a cautious tone, making this week’s earnings critical for the STI’s trajectory.

Key Earnings Dates

• Keppel (SGX:BN4): July 24, 2025

• Seatrium (SGX:5E2): July 31, 2025

• First REIT (SGX:AW9U): July 31, 2025

• OCBC (SGX:O39): July 29, 2025

Singapore Airlines: A Warning Sign

SIA’s Q1 2025 results, reported on July 28, 2025, highlighted challenges:

• Net Profit: Dropped 59% to S$186 million, missing estimates of S$200 million, due to losses from Air India and lower interest income.

• Revenue: Rose 1.5% to S$4.79 billion, driven by record travel volumes and strong cargo demand.

• Outlook: Competitive pressures and rising fuel costs could continue to weigh on profitability.

SIA’s struggles reflect broader challenges in the aviation sector, raising concerns about whether other Singapore companies can withstand similar pressures. Investors are now looking to Keppel, Seatrium, First REIT, and OCBC to deliver stronger results.

Keppel: Poised for a Strong Showing?

Keppel Corporation (SGX:BN4) has been a standout, with its Q1 2025 net profit expanding over 25% year-over-year, excluding legacy offshore and marine (O&M) assets, per Keppel’s website. Key highlights include:

• Infrastructure: Steady earnings from power generation and digital infrastructure projects, including data centers.

• Real Estate: Improved contributions from property sales and rentals, with $347 million in asset monetization and $550 million in potential divestments.

• Asset Management: Fees rose 9% to S$96 million, with $2.0 billion in new capital commitments for flagship private funds, representing $4.9 billion in funds under management (FUM).

Expectations for July 24, 2025

• Net Profit: Likely to grow 20-25% year-over-year, excluding legacy assets, driven by recurring income (over 80% of net profit).

• Revenue: Expected to rise 10-15%, supported by infrastructure and real estate.

• Key Focus: Progress on asset monetization and FUM growth toward the S$100 billion target by 2026.

Can Keppel Beat Like Keppel DC REIT? Keppel DC REIT’s 12.8% DPU increase to S$0.05133 for H1 2025, reported on July 25, 2025, sets a high bar. Keppel’s diversified portfolio and strong Q1 performance suggest it could deliver a comparable beat, especially if infrastructure and asset management continue to shine. However, tariff-related supply chain disruptions could pose risks, particularly for its international projects.

Seatrium: Riding the Turnaround Wave

Seatrium (SGX:5E2) has staged a remarkable recovery, reporting a net profit of S$157 million for FY2024—its first full-year profit since 2017, per The Straits Times. The company’s stock is up 17.81% YTD, reflecting investor confidence in its offshore engineering and construction projects.

Expectations for July 31, 2025

• Net Profit: Likely to remain positive, with potential for 10-15% growth, driven by offshore energy demand.

• Revenue: Expected to rise 15-20%, supported by new contracts and operational efficiency.

• Key Focus: Project execution, cost control, and the impact of global trade disruptions.

Still Holding? Seatrium’s 236% net income growth in H2 2024 and proposed 1.5-cent dividend signal strength. Its focus on offshore energy, including renewable projects, aligns with global trends. However, tariff impacts on international projects and rising energy costs could challenge margins. The stock’s 17.81% YTD gain suggests it remains a hold, but investors should monitor earnings for signs of sustained profitability.

First REIT: Healthcare Stability in Focus

First REIT (SGX:AW9U), Singapore’s first healthcare REIT, reported a Q1 2025 DPU of 0.58 Scts, missing estimates due to a weak Indonesian rupiah against the SGD, per DBS. Its portfolio of 32 properties across Singapore, Japan, and Indonesia, valued at S$1.12 billion, benefits from rising healthcare demand.

Expectations for July 31, 2025

• DPU: Likely to grow 5-10% year-over-year, supported by rental escalations and high occupancy (96.5% in Q1).

• Revenue: Expected to rise 5-8%, driven by healthcare demand in aging markets.

• Key Focus: Rental arrears from PT MPU (S$7.9 million outstanding) and progress on divesting non-core assets.

Will First REIT Follow Keppel DC REIT’s Trend? Unlike Keppel DC REIT’s robust 12.8% DPU hike, First REIT faces challenges from FX impacts and rental arrears. However, its healthcare focus and diversified portfolio provide stability, making a modest DPU increase likely. It may not match Keppel DC REIT’s tech-driven surge but should hold steady.

OCBC: Banking on Resilience

OCBC (SGX:O39) reported a 10% net profit increase to S$2.1 billion in Q1 2025, with revenue up 12% to S$5.4 billion, per SGinvestors.io. Its regional expansion and wealth management strength bolster its outlook.

Expectations for July 29, 2025

• Net Profit: Likely to grow 8-10% year-over-year, driven by lending and fee income.

• Revenue: Expected to rise 10-12%, supported by stable banking operations.

• Key Focus: Loan growth, net interest margins (NIMs), and wealth management performance.

OCBC’s stability makes it a defensive play, though tariff-related economic slowdowns could pressure loan demand.

Trading and Investment Strategies

Short-Term Plays

• Buy Keppel on Dip: Enter at S$4.80-S$4.90, target S$5.50, stop at S$4.60. A 12-14% gain if earnings beat expectations.

• Buy Seatrium on Dip: Grab at S$2.40-S$2.50, target S$2.80, stop at S$2.30. A 12-16% gain on offshore energy strength.

• Buy First REIT on Dip: Enter at S$0.30-S$0.31, target S$0.35, stop at S$0.29. A 13-16% gain if DPU grows.

• Options Straddle: Buy S$4.90 calls/puts on Keppel for earnings volatility, targeting 200-300% gains if the stock moves 10%+.

Long-Term Investments

• Hold Keppel: Buy at S$4.80-S$4.90, target S$6.00 by 2026, for 22-25% upside with infrastructure growth.

• Hold Seatrium: Buy at S$2.40-S$2.50, target S$3.00, for 20-25% upside with offshore energy demand.

• Hold First REIT: Buy at S$0.30-S$0.31, target S$0.40, for 29-33% upside with healthcare stability.

• Diversify with Tech ETF (XLK): Buy at $200, target $220, stop at $190, for global tech exposure.

Hedge Strategies

• VIXY ETF: Buy at $15, target $18, stop at $13, to hedge against tariff or earnings volatility.

• SPY ETF Puts: Use puts at $614 to protect against a 5-10% S&P 500 pullback.

• Gold ETF (GLD): Buy at $200, target $220, stop at $190, as a safe-haven hedge.

My Trading Plan

I’m most bullish on Keppel for its diversified growth and strong Q1 performance, seeing it as likely to beat expectations like Keppel DC REIT. I’ll buy Keppel at S$4.80-S$4.90, targeting S$5.50, with a S$4.60 stop, and Seatrium at S$2.40-S$2.50, targeting S$2.80, with a S$2.30 stop. For stability, I’ll add First REIT at S$0.30-S$0.31, targeting S$0.35, with a S$0.29 stop. I’m hedging with VIXY at $15, targeting $18, and keeping 20% cash to seize dips if tariffs, geopolitical tensions, or earnings misses escalate. I’ll monitor earnings calls, tariff updates, and economic data for cues.

Key Metrics

The Bigger Picture

SIA’s 59% profit drop underscores the challenges facing Singapore’s earnings season, but Keppel, Seatrium, First REIT, and OCBC offer hope. Keppel’s infrastructure and asset management strength position it for a potential beat, mirroring Keppel DC REIT’s success. Seatrium’s turnaround and offshore energy focus make it a compelling hold, while First REIT’s healthcare stability could deliver steady gains. OCBC’s banking resilience adds a defensive layer. With tariff risks and global volatility looming, investors should buy on dips, diversify across sectors, and hedge with VIXY or GLD to manage risks. Singapore’s market is at a crossroads—play it smart to win big.

Which stock are you betting on this week? Are you bullish on Keppel or Seatrium? Share your strategy below! 🎁

📢 Like, repost, and follow for daily updates on market trends and stock insights.

📝 Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

📌@Daily_Discussion @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerEvents @TigerWire