To The Moon

$ESR REIT(9A4U.SI)$ $Kep Infra Tr(A7RU.SI)$ $First Reit(AW9U.SI)$ 📊🔥🧭 S-REIT earnings decoded: growth surges, dividend dilemmas, and tactical positioning ahead! 🧭🔥📊

I’m diving straight into this heavy-hitting S-REIT earnings week with six tickers under the microscope. I’ve integrated every chart level, every earnings metric, and every technical trigger to find the names poised to outperform. This isn’t just a recap; it’s an execution plan for growth, income, or both.

I’m positioning into strength: the two REITs rewriting the growth script

$ESR REIT (9A4U.SI) just delivered an absolute standout. Revenue soared 23.2% to S$222.9M, while NPI surged 30.1% to S$166.3M. Core DPU rose 8.1%, even as total DPU held flat at 1.1239 cents. This was no fluke; its 4H chart shows an explosive vertical move with expanding candles piercing through the top of both the Keltner and Bollinger envelopes, signaling extreme momentum. Price broke clean above S$2.83 with RSI firmly over 70 and no signs of bearish divergence. MACD remains in full bull mode with rising histogram bars. This is textbook accumulation after the July pullback, now erupting on volume.

$Kep Infra Tr (A7RU.SI) posted a 31.2% leap in distributable income to S$119.4M, turning last year’s loss into S$60M profit. With revenue up 11.5% to S$1.1B and 62% exposure to energy transition assets, the 8.11% yield suddenly looks sustainable. Technically, this is a textbook breakout. The 4H chart shows a clean surge through the Keltner and Bollinger midlines, with candles riding the upper band, backed by strong volume. EMA 13, 21, and 55 all stacked bullishly beneath price. RSI is cooling just below 70, suggesting room for continuation, especially above S$0.445. I’m eyeing this for both income and upside.

I’m cautious on the laggards: yield traps and payout pauses

$First REIT (AW9U.SI) looks tempting with its 8.89% yield, but a deeper dive tells a different story. DPU fell 5.8% to S$0.0113, revenue dropped 12.5% to S$45.65M, and distributable income sank 4.8% due to FX drag and unit base dilution. Gearing jumped to 41.2%, making this risk-heavy. The 4H chart confirms the caution. Price reversed from near S$0.285 resistance and dropped to S$0.270, breaking below EMA 13 and testing mid-Keltner. MACD is flattening, and RSI is neutral at best. Until price clears that upper band with conviction, I’m steering clear.

$KepPacOakReitUSD (CMOU.SI) is a no-go for me right now. A 16.2% drop in distributable income to US$19.9M and no dividend due to a two-year payout pause? That’s a capital gain gamble without a catalyst. No charts are even needed for this one; it’s fundamentally uninvestable until payout resumes.

Solid and steady: a balanced case for $Keppel REIT and $CapLand Ascott T

$Keppel REIT (K71U.SI) may not have wowed with yield cuts, but I respect its resilience. DPU slid just 2.9% to S$0.0272, yet property income rose 9.1% to S$136.5M and NPI grew 11.8%. Occupancy is an impressive 95.9% with 12.3% rental reversion, and the average cost of debt is a manageable 3.51%. The 4H chart shows a sustained uptrend from the April lows. Price broke above S$0.965, hugging the top Keltner and Bollinger bands with strong EMA alignment. RSI is pushing overbought territory without divergence, and MACD remains bullish. I see this as a rock in any income-growth blend strategy.

$CapLand Ascott T (HMN.SI) reported a 3% revenue lift to S$398.5M and profit up 6% to S$182.5M. DPS dipped 1%, but core payouts stayed flat. With over 60% of US income hedged and RevPau strength in UK/US, this looks stable. Chart-wise, it’s grinding higher along the top Keltner, above S$0.905. Price is compressing just under local resistance, possibly setting up a breakout if volume follows through. EMA lines remain in bullish formation, and RSI is just below 70. Not a rocket, but a solid traveller.

The dividend dilemma: chase yield or chase upside?

I’m always dissecting the risk-reward in this sector. $First REIT’s 8.89% yield feels like a mirage with rising gearing and eroding profits. $Kep Infra Tr’s 8.11% is a far stronger candidate, backed by real income and growth. $Keppel REIT lands right in the middle at 5.88%, but with operational solidity and consistent rental reversions, it’s earned its spot in my portfolio.

$ESR REIT, meanwhile, is carving out the capital gains path. It’s up 4.43% on the week with no signs of slowing. It’s the S-REIT that’s breaking out of the yield mold, and I’m watching for confirmation through S$2.90 as the next psychological level.

Which way will the next yield rotation go?

I’m favouring a hybrid strategy. Rate cut bets are building into year-end, and capital rotation may favour high-yield REITs. But those REITs must show real earnings growth. $ESR REIT and $Kep Infra Tr are my prime candidates, combining yield with operational muscle. $Keppel REIT gives me defensive exposure, and I’ll revisit $CapLand Ascott T if we break S$0.920 with conviction.

Are we heading into a new wave of REIT outperformance, or will inflationary debt pressure drag the sector back? Which side of the trade are you leaning into, capital appreciation or income stability?

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