To The Moon

Last Week's Recap

The US Market - Stocks sell-off to kick off August trading

• August 1st saw a sharp sell-off, with the S&P 500 falling 1.6% and the Nasdaq sliding around 2.2%, triggered by disappointing jobs data and newly announced tariffs. These losses followed fresh record highs earlier in the week (July 28th), capping Nasdaq's most active month for record closes since December 1999.

• For the week, the S&P 500 dropped 2.4%, marking its biggest weekly decline in months, closing near 6,280. The Dow sank 2.9%, its worst performance since April 4, while the Nasdaq slid 2.2%.

• The July jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls rose by 73,000, falling short of the 100,000 gain expected by economists polled by Dow Jones. Previous figures were sharply revised. June job growth totaled just 14,000, down from 147,000. The May count came down to 19,000 from 125,000. The unemployment rate ticked back up to 4.2% in July.

• Following the weak jobs data, traders now assign an 86% probability to a September rate cut, based on CME Fedwatch tool.

• On Thursday, Trump signed executive orders to impose “reciprocal” tariffs on several countries, with rates ranging from 10% to 41%.

The US Sectors & Stocks - Tech giants retreated, Figma skyrocketed

• Among S&P 500 sectors, Information Technology and Communication Services held up relatively well early in the week thanks to strong tech earnings, though both turned lower by Friday. Utilities was the only sector to close the week in positive territory, as a broad sell-off on Friday dragged all others into the red.

• Consumer Staples, Basic Materials, and Healthcare bore the brunt of late-week losses, pressured by slowing growth concerns and new tariffs. Banks also weakened amid fears that a cooling economy could hurt loan demand.

• Microsoft (MSFT) beat its FYQ4 expectations with EPS rising 24% and revenue climbing 18% to $76.44B, marking two quarters of accelerating growth. Azure grew 39%, surpassing targets. MSFT stock briefly hit a record, crossing $4T in market cap on Thursday, but ended the week flat.

• Meta (META) surged 11% Thursday to a record high after Q2 EPS jumped 38% to $7.14, well ahead of $5.88 estimates. Revenue grew 22% to $47.52B. Meta also raised AI-related capex, pushing weekly gains over 5%.

• Apple (AAPL) fell 2.5% after revealing $800M in Q3 tariff costs and projecting $1.1B in Q4. Despite a 10% revenue rise to $94B and iPhone sales beating expectations, AAPL dropped 5% over the week.

• Amazon (AMZN) dropped 7% despite solid Q2 beats. AWS revenue rose 17.5%, slightly topping forecasts but lagging behind growth at Azure and Google Cloud. Its Q3 operating income outlook missed estimates.

• Figma (FIG) jumped 250% in its public debut on Thursday, marking the biggest first-day pop in three decades for a US IPO raising over $1.2B. The design software vendor popped 270% this week to close at $122,nearly quadrupling the IPO price of $33 apiece.

• Coinbase (COIN) plunged 17% on missing across multiple Q2 metrics. The crypto exchange's Q3 guidances of transaction revenue, subscription revenue and stablecoin revenue also below estimates.

• Robinhood (HOOD) beat Q2 EPS and revenue estimates, with crypto revenue jumping 98%. Still, user growth lagged expectations, and shares slipped nearly 5% from recent highs.

• Reddit (RDDT) surged 26% for the week after swinging to a Q2 profit and posting 78% revenue growth to $500M — its fastest pace in three years.

• Palo Alto Networks (PANW) announced a $25B mostly stock deal to acquire CyberArk (CYBR), marking its largest acquisition under CEO Nikesh Arora. CYBR rose on the news, while PANW fell.

• Novo Nordisk (NVO) plunged 34% following a downward revision of its 2025 sales and profit outlook, raising investor concerns.

• UnitedHealth (UNH) fell 15.4% after reinstating a full-year profit forecast below expectations, citing rising costs in government-backed plans.

Hong Kong Market - HSI lost 3.5% last week

• Hong Kong equities recorded their biggest weekly drop in nearly four months, weighed down by disappointing earnings and global macro uncertainty. The Hang Seng Index (HSI) declined 3.5% for the week but remained up 2.9% in July and has surged 30% year-to-date.

• HSBC Holdings (0005.HK) fell 5.7% last week after reporting a steep 26% YoY decline in H1 pretax profit, with earnings down to US $15.8 billion, driven by heavy impairments tied to its stake in Bank of Communications and exposure to weak Hong Kong property. The announcement of a $3 billion share buyback plan failed to lift investor sentiment.

• Li Auto (2015.HK) dropped 14.7% as its new electric SUV pricing disappointed investors, raising concerns over market competition. While XPeng Inc. (9868.HK) fell 5.3%, despite a 229% year-over-year increase in July deliveries, as broader EV market sentiment remained weak. However, NIO Inc. (9866.HK) rose 9.6% for the week, supported by a 25.2% year-over-year increase in July deliveries, reaching 21,017 vehicles. The launch of its flagship SUV, the NIO L90, also boosted investor sentiment.

Singapore Market - STI lost 2.5%

• Singapore’s stock market pulled back from record highs, with the Straits Times Index (STI) falling 2.5% for the week to close at 4,153.83. Still, the STI posted a strong monthly gain of over 5% in July.

• iFast Corporation (AIY.SI) saw its net profit increase by almost 38% year-on-year to $22.1 million for the second quarter of FY2025. The stock surged by 21.7% over the week, driven by strong Q2 results and positive expectations for the second half of 2025.

• Singapore Airlines (C6L.SI) reported a significant decline in net profit for the 1QFY2026, down 58.8% year-on-year to $186 million. This resulted in a notable drop in SIA's stock price by 10% over the week, impacting investor sentiment.

• OCBC (O39.SI) reported a 7% drop in net profit for the second quarter, attributed to lower net interest income in a declining interest rate environment. The stock fell by 2.3% over the week.

Australian Market - Aussie dodged latest Trump tariff hikes

• Australian shares outperformed most regional markets last week, ending nearly flat. The ASX 200 dipped just 0.1%, although Friday saw notable losses, especially in bank stocks following tariff-related developments. The index still advanced 2.35% in July.

• Australia dodged latest Trump tariff hikes. Guardian Australia understands the US government confirmed to the Australian embassy in Washington DC that the 10% tariff rate would remain in place.

The Week Ahead

Macro Factors - Seasonal headwinds in August

• This week features a relatively light economic calendar. On Monday, the Institute for Supply Management will release the July Services PMI, followed by the Federal Reserve’s consumer credit report for June on Thursday.

• With trade negotiations still unresolved, investors are treading carefully. New U.S. tariffs—set to take effect on August 7 and targeting countries like Switzerland—have intensified market concerns. Attention is turning to the potential impact on inflation and economic growth.

• Seasonal headwinds in August and September are also weighing on sentiment. According to Ari Wald of Oppenheimer, the recent S&P 500 pullback follows “narrow internal breadth” at its highs. Only 59% of Russell 3000 stocks were trading above their 200-day moving average—down from 70% levels seen throughout 2024—suggesting that headline index strength was masking broader market weakness. He expected seasonal consolidation to continue through the rest of Q3. While maintaining a bullish long-term stance on large-cap growth, Wald sees short-term risks in small-caps and value stocks.

Earnings

• This week, 122 S&P 500 companies are set to report earnings, with a spotlight on consumer, AI, streaming, and discretionary sectors. Notable names include Walt Disney (DIS), McDonald’s (MCD), Uber (UBER), and Palantir Technologies (PLTR).

• The Q2 earnings season remains robust. Of the 331 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far, over 82% have delivered positive surprises. As of August 1, the blended earnings growth rate for the quarter stands at 10.2%—more than double the 4.9% projected at the end of June, per FactSet data.