To The Moon

Economic Calendar: Key Market Movers (week of 11Aug25)

Public Holidays

There are no public holidays in China, Singapore, America or Hong Kong.

Observations

• Next week's key macroeconomic events will centre on the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a primary indicator of inflation. Market participants are anticipating a rise in CPI, which could raise concerns among investors hoping for a reduction in interest rates by the Federal Reserve. This outcome may even prompt the Federal Reserve to consider an interest rate hike.

• Additionally, the Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to increase to 0.2%, up from the previous month. The PPI serves as an early indicator of inflationary pressures on producers, which are often subsequently passed on to consumers.

• Further economic data will be released in the form of Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales figures. Forecasts indicate an expectation of growth in both metrics compared to the preceding month.

• Initial Jobless Claims should be closely watched after the job numbers revision last Friday spooked the market.

• Crude oil inventories are an item to monitor. A higher-than-expected inventory level can raise concerns about oil demand.

Earnings Calendar (11Aug25)

There are a few earnings results that are interesting for the coming week which, include Monday, C limited, AMC, Cisco, and John Deere.

Let us look at John Deere (Deere & Company)

A screenshot of a graph AI-generated content may be incorrect.

The stock price rose 49.6% from a year ago.

Technical Analysis recommends a “Buy” Rating and Analysts’ sentiment is showing a “Buy” recommendation. With a target price of $543.65, there is a potential price upside of 6.52%.

A screenshot of a data AI-generated content may be incorrect.

Observations about recent earnings:

• Revenue has shown significant long-term growth, rising from $28.1 billion in 2015 to $50.5 billion in 2024. However, this represents a decrease from the peak revenue of $60.2 billion in 2023.

• Gross profit reached a record high of $22.3 billion in 2023 before declining to $19.4 billion in 2024. Despite this recent drop, the 2024 figure still represents substantial growth compared to the $7.8 billion recorded in 2015.

• Operating profit increased from $2.7 billion in 2015 to $11.4 billion in 2024. Similar to revenue, the highest operating profit was $14.5 billion in 2023.

• Earnings Per Share (EPS) followed a similar trend, growing from $5.77 in 2015 to $25.62 in 2024. The peak EPS was $34.63 in 2023.

• As of the latest report, the company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 24.5. The gross profit margin is 30.3%, which is based on the 10-year median.

A screenshot of a graph AI-generated content may be incorrect.

The forecast of EPS and Revenue are $4.58 and $10.35B respectively.

Based on the above, let us monitor this business. Once we establish a fair valuation and a margin of safety, we can consider taking up a position if the stock price reaches our target.

Market Outlook of S&P500 (11Aug25)

Technical observations:

• MACD - the top crossover is completed, which implies a downtrend. However, there can be a change to an uptrend.

• Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing an uptrend. The lines are converging, which represents a potential reversal of the current uptrend. But the convergence is not completed, and we are expecting the uptrend to continue.

• Both the 50 MA line and the 200 MA line are showing an uptrend. This speaks of a bullish outlook for both the short and long term.

• The CMF is positive at 0.05, indicating more buying pressure over the past 20 periods.

The technical indicators suggest a “Strong Buy”. Based on daily intervals, we have 20 indicators showing a “Buy” rating and 1 showing a “Sell” rating.

Outlook and Implications for the Coming Week (Candlestick) - from Grok

• Short-Term Outlook (August 11–15, 2025): The S&P 500 is likely to continue its bearish trend into the coming week, driven by the Evening Star and Bearish Engulfing patterns. The price could test support at 5,345.01 (early 2025 low) or drop further to 5,300 if selling pressure intensifies. Potential scenarios include:

  Bearish Case: A continued decline below 5,345.01 with high volume, possibly forming a Three Black Crows pattern, targeting 5,300 or lower.

  Neutral Case: Stabilisation around 5,479.78 or 5,345.01, with a Doji or small-bodied candle indicating consolidation.

  Bullish Reversal Case: A bounce from 5,345.01 with a bullish pattern (e.g., Hammer) and increasing volume, signalling a recovery toward 5,620.19 or 5,629.83.

• Long-Term Outlook: The trend is bearish, with the S&P 500 in a correction phase that could mirror the decline from 6,000 to 5,345.01 in early 2025. The current price of 5,479.78 is below the 50 MA (5,629.83) and 200 MA (5,796.34) supports this outlook, with a potential retest of 5,345.01 or lower if bearish momentum continues.

The candlestick patterns suggest a bearish short-term outlook for the coming week, with a bearish long-term outlook, indicating the S&P 500 is in a correction phase following its recent high, with potential for further downside unless a bullish reversal emerges at key support levels.

Based on the above, the S&P 500 may dip in the coming week, given the current indicators. There is a possibility of going up or ranging too.

News and my thoughts from the past week (11Aug25)

China’s ton-class drone delivers supplies to offshore oil platforms 150km off the coast. A great leap in efficiency: 8 hours by ship compared to less than 1 hour by drone.

China’s exports defy trade war headwinds in July as growth surges to 7.2% China’s exports beat market forecasts in July as rising shipments to Europe, Africa and Latin America offset the impact of US tariffs - SCMP

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The US economy is splitting in two. There’s a rip-roaring AI economy. And there’s a lacklustre consumer economy. - Macro: Last quarter, spending on AI outpaced the growth in consumer spending - Stocks: In the last two years, ~60% of equity returns have come from “AI-related” companies, esp the hyperscalers like Microsoft and Meta (per JPM) - Micro: According to Stripe, firms on the platform that self-describe as “AI companies” are dominating revenue growt, far surpassing the growth rate of any other group - X user Derek Thompson

CNN and MSNBC lost 40% of its viewers compared to last year. Fake news is dying. - X user Gunther Eagleman

Apple's major US investment promises in the last 20 years: - 2018: $350B over 5 years – exceeded, per Apple's 2021 update. - 2021: $430B over 5 years – on track, with significant progress reported. - 2025: $600B over 4 years – newly announced, fulfilment pending. Earlier pledges were smaller, like the 2017 $5B fund. Total promised: ~$1.385T, mostly honoured or progressing. - Grok

Retail investors' share in the options market has exceeded 20% for the first time in HISTORY. Over the last few weeks, the retail options activity has SKYROCKETED. This is ~5 percentage points above the meme stock frenzy peak in 2021. - X user Global Markets Investor

Population collapse can be a more immediate crisis than climate change.

President Trump officially signs an executive order opening the $12.5 trillion 401(k) retirement market to crypto investments. This should be passed in Congress, not as an executive order

Coming to knowledge, the inputs has always been a bottleneck for humans. With LLM able to process large volume of information, there is a chance for humans to be less smart following more reliance on AI. Job market will no longer be the same

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Japan and Brazil, both fed up with the United States, are looking to begin trading beef with each other for the first time in history. America First = America Last. - X user Spencer Hakimian

UK Faklands War - https://www.nam.ac.uk/sites/default/files/styles/slice_lg/public/2017-02/107630_slice.jpg.webp?itok=bZLAk4RR

The concept of "diversionary war theory" suggests that leaders initiate a war to divert attention from domestic problems. This assumes that an external threat can unite a population behind its leaders, a phenomenon known as the "rally around the flag" effect.

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The number of ZOMBIE firms has rarely been larger in the US: 40% of the Russell 2000 firms are unprofitable, near the most on RECORD The share is nearly as high as in the FINANCIAL CRISIS. Interest expense as a % of debt of these firms is ~7%, the highest in ~20 YEARS.

Image shows dropping exports since March 2025

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U.S. Banks are now sitting on $413 billion in unrealised losses as of Q1 2025 - BarChart

Professional investors' DUMPING of US stocks is ACCELERATING: Institutional investors sold $1.9 BILLION of US equities last week. Over the last 4 weeks, they sold ~$8 BILLION. They have been net sellers in 11 out of the past 12 weeks.

My Investing Muse (11Aug25)

Layoffs & Closure news

• Two years into his tenure, Bayer has reduced its headcount by more than 12,000, with little slowdown in the pace of dismissals. - FiercePharma

• Multiple Kentucky Whiskey Distilleries File for Bankruptcy - NewsWeek

• National transport and logistics company XL Express has gone into liquidation after 35 years in business. It has collapsed owing almost $42m in estimated debts, with about 200 employees to be left without jobs. - Yahoo Finance (AU)

• The US lost 37,000 manufacturing jobs in the last three months. Trump’s trade wars & tariffs are allegedly about bringing manufacturing jobs back to America. And US labor force participation is 62.2%. So… 37.8% of Americans are not working! - X user S.L. Kanthan

• From the 800,000 people who lost their jobs, some will try their hands at trading and investing as they look for the next job. This can be one reason why there is such #buying momentum coming from Main Street (retail investors). Research before investing.

• Nayara Energy faces severe fuel supply disruptions as shipowners halt operations due to EU sanctions linked to its Russian ownership. This forces the company to seek government assistance for alternative shipping solutions to maintain fuel distribution to key Indian demand centres. - Times of India

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• The US services employment is SHRINKING: The ISM Services PMI Employment index fell to 46.4 points, one of the lowest readings since the 2020 Crisis. Employment has now contracted in 4 out of the last 5 months. This has rarely happened outside of a recession in the past. - X user Global Markets Investor

The above are some news items about layoffs and closures. As tariff negotiations drag on, the collateral to businesses (especially smaller ones) can compound.

Debts & Delinquency

An estimated $500 billion of residential mortgage principal is delinquent (30+ days past due). Of that, around $200 billion is seriously delinquent or in formal foreclosure.

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US household debt rose $185 billion, to a record $18.4 TRILLION in Q2 2025. In 10 years, household debt has surged by a MASSIVE $7 TRILLION.

Debt and delinquency look to continue their upward trend.

My final thoughts

Different ones have been raising their concerns about the US economy:

Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi says the U.S. economy is “on the precipice of recession”

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Total household debt in the U.S. increased by $185 billion in the past three months, reaching a total of $18.39 trillion at the end of June, according to the latest data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. - KCRA

It’s clear the economy is slowing down badly, and yet the market continues to hit new highs daily.

The market can remain irrational longer than we can remain solvent.

Hedging can be a good consideration, especially with the USD’s devaluation of 11% from 2025 (YTD).

Let us review our expenditures, income, and savings. Let us spend within our means, invest with what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. I am reviewing my holdings and plan to cut losses with businesses losing their competitive advantages. I would also consider hedging and adding some defensive positions.

Let us conduct our due diligence before taking on any positions. Let us have a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

$Deere(DE)$

$S&P 500(.SPX)$

$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$