Intel popped after a White House sit-down between CEO Lip-Bu Tan and President Trump. That is a big mood swing from last week when Trump publicly called for his resignation. The market liked the photo-op and the possibility of friendlier policy for Intel’s factories.
Under the hood, the story is still a tug of war.
What’s bullish??
• Government support talk is back on the table. Any carrots for U.S. fabs would help margins and sentiment.
• Q2 showed pockets of life. Data Center and AI revenue grew while Foundry revenue edged up. Not a blowout, but not a collapse.
What’s tricky??
• 18A yields are the elephant in the room. Reports point to low yields that threaten profitability for the coming Panther Lake chips. If 18A slips, the foundry dream wobbles.
• Management may pivot focus toward a 14A path if customers and yields do not show up fast. That would be a strategy reset the market will judge harshly.
My take:
I like Intel for the optionality, not the certainty. If the White House thaw turns into incentives and if yields trend up, the risk reward improves. If yields stay weak, rallies get sold. Simple.
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