To The Moon

$JD.com(JD)$ $NetEase(NTES)$

The market is buzzing as JD.com, NetEase, and Tencent unveil their Q2 2025 earnings, painting a mixed picture of triumph and turbulence. JD.com’s net revenue soared to RMB 356.66 billion, a 22.4% year-over-year jump that crushed the RMB 335.45 billion estimate, though adjusted net profit dipped to RMB 7.4 billion from RMB 14.5 billion last year. Tencent impressed with Q2 revenue of 184.50 billion yuan, beating the 178.94 billion yuan forecast, and a net profit of 55.63 billion yuan, topping the 50.83 billion yuan estimate. Meanwhile, NetEase stumbled, posting RMB 27.9 billion in revenue below expectations and a net profit of RMB 9.5 billion, with gaming revenue underperforming due to weaker overseas ad spend. Against a backdrop of the S&P 500 at 6,466.58, Nasdaq at 21,713.14, and Bitcoin at $124,002, tariffs (30% on EU/Mexico, 35% on Canada) and oil at $75/barrel add layers of caution. How can you trade these post-earnings swings? This deep dive uncovers the winners, losers, and strategies to capitalize on the chaos.

Earnings Breakdown: The Winners and Losers

The results reveal stark contrasts:

• JD.com (JD): Net revenue of RMB 356.66 billion (US$49.8 billion) outpaced expectations, driven by a 20.6% surge in JD Retail to RMB 310.1 billion and a 29.1% jump in service revenues. Adjusted net profit fell to RMB 7.4 billion due to heavy investments in JD Food Delivery, which hit 25 million daily orders during the 618 promotion.

• Tencent ( $Tencent Holding Ltd.(TCEHY)$ ): Revenue hit 184.50 billion yuan (US$25.7 billion), up 15% year-over-year, with gaming revenue rising 17% to 40.2 billion yuan and net profit soaring 9.4% to 55.63 billion yuan. AI-driven ad growth and global expansion fueled the beat.

• NetEase (NTES): Revenue of RMB 27.9 billion (US$3.9 billion), up 6.1% but below forecasts, with gaming revenue at RMB 20.1 billion, up 6.7% but hampered by overseas ad weakness. Net profit dropped to RMB 9.5 billion from RMB 11.2 billion, signaling competitive pressure.

Posts found on X highlight JD’s retail strength and Tencent’s AI edge, while NetEase’s miss sparks concern about China’s gaming slowdown, suggesting a market split on sentiment.

Market Reaction: Volatility Unleashed

Post-earnings moves reflect the earnings narrative:

• JD: Stock surged 2.5% premarket to $40.10, with support at $38 and resistance at $42, buoyed by robust user growth (over 40% year-over-year active customers).

• Tencent: Shares climbed 1.8% to HK$450, with support at HK$435 and resistance at HK$465, driven by gaming and ad momentum.

• NetEase: Stock dipped 3.2% to $85.50, with support at $82 and resistance at $90, pressured by gaming underperformance and a 17% profit decline.

• Sector Ripple: Chinese tech ETFs like KWEB fell 0.5% to $35.20, while broader indices like the S&P 500 at 6,466.58 and Nasdaq at 21,713.14 hold steady, indicating selective impact.

The VIX at 14.49 and 16.49 billion shares traded suggest controlled volatility, but tariff talks could amplify swings if China tensions rise.

Trading Opportunities: Seize the Momentum

These earnings open doors for strategic plays:

• JD Breakout: Buy at $39-$40, target $44-$46, stop at $37. A 10-15% gain if retail growth sustains, leveraging the 22.4% revenue beat.

• Tencent Rally: Buy at HK$445-$450, target HK$470-$480, stop at HK$435. A 5-7% upside if gaming and AI hold, capitalizing on the 9.4% profit beat.

• NetEase Dip Buy: Buy at $82-$84, target $88-$90, stop at $80. A 5-10% recovery if gaming stabilizes, despite the miss.

• ETF Play: Buy KWEB at $35-$35.50, target $37-$38, stop at $34, riding Chinese tech rotation.

• Hedge Move: Buy SPY puts at $646 for a 5-10% market dip if tariff fears escalate.

The market’s 4.05-to-1 advancer-decliner ratio on NYSE signals broad strength, but NetEase’s weakness could drag peers if ad trends worsen.

Long-Term Investment Angles

• Hold JD: Buy at $39-$40, target $50-$55 by 2026, for 25-38% upside with logistics growth. Stop at $36.

• Hold Tencent: Buy at HK$445-$450, target HK$500-$520 by 2026, for 11-16% upside with AI expansion. Stop at HK$430.

• Hold NetEase: Buy at $82-$84, target $100-$110 by 2026, for 20-30% upside if gaming rebounds. Stop at $78.

• Defensive Pick: Buy Coca-Cola (KO) at $67-$68, target $72-$75, for 6-10% upside with stability. Stop at $65.

• Diversify: Buy iShares MSCI China (MCHI) at $45-$46, target $50-$52, for 9-13% upside with exposure. Stop at $43.

My Trading Plan: Navigating the Earnings Wave

I’m bullish on JD’s retail surge and Tencent’s AI edge, while eyeing NetEase’s dip. I’ll buy JD at $39-$40, targeting $44-$46, with a $37 stop, and Tencent at HK$445-$450, aiming for HK$470, with a HK$435 stop. I’ll dip-buy NetEase at $82-$84, targeting $88, with a $80 stop. For diversification, I’ll add KWEB at $35-$35.50, targeting $37, with a $34 stop, and KO at $67-$68, targeting $70, with a $65 stop. I’m hedging with SPY puts at $646, targeting $630 if tariffs hit, and holding 20% cash for volatility. I’ll track China ad data and JD’s 618 momentum.

Key Metrics

The Bigger Picture

JD’s 22.4% revenue beat to RMB 356.66 billion and Tencent’s 9.4% profit surge to 55.63 billion yuan signal strength in retail and gaming, while NetEase’s RMB 27.9 billion miss and 15.2% profit drop highlight gaming woes. The S&P 500’s 6,466.58 and Nasdaq’s 21,713.14 provide a solid base, but tariffs and a potential 5-10% pullback to 6,150-6,200 loom if China tensions flare. Investors should ride JD and Tencent’s momentum, buy NetEase’s dip, and hedge with SPY or VIXY. This earnings rollercoaster is your chance—play it bold.

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📝 Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

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