To The Moon

$Bilibili Inc.(BILI)$ $Baidu, Inc.(BAIDF)$ $Alibaba(BABA)$ 🤖🦾 Tiger AI spotlight creates the setup

I’m excited that Tiger AI flagged Bilibili ($BILI) as the top China stock to watch, and I’ve validated that call with a deep dive across fundamentals, sentiment, and technicals. On 16Aug25, BILI closed at $24.85, up 4.32% on 3.31M shares. Over the past year it has surged nearly 79%, confirming long-term momentum heading into earnings on 21Aug25.

💡 Earnings catalyst: ±10% volatility fuse on 21Aug25

I think the earnings event will be pivotal. Bilibili reports Q2 on 21Aug25 before market open, with its call at 8:00 a.m. ET. Last quarter, revenue was ¥7B (–9.45% QoQ, +23.63% YoY), net income ¥9.1M (+98.78% YoY), and EBITDA ¥33M (+124.62% YoY). Despite sequential declines, the year-over-year strength shows BILI is expanding structurally, not shrinking.

Fundamentals: revenue quality and valuation re-rating

I believe the numbers underpin the bullish case. With a $10.17B market cap, P/S at 2.59, and P/B at 5.08, BILI sits above book but below frothy multiples of peers like Kuaishou. EPS remains negative at –$0.20 (P/E –124), yet margin expansion is visible. Deutsche Bank’s Leo Chiang cites its flagship game “San Mou” and advertising mix shift as catalysts for stronger leverage.

📊 Analyst sentiment leans bullish with upside to $37.10

I’m impressed by the breadth of analyst conviction. Of 29 analysts: 24% Strong Buy, 55% Buy, 21% Hold. Consensus target: $26.12; high: $37.10; low: $19.00. Haitong maintains Overweight, China Merchants lifted targets, and Deutsche Bank reiterated Buy with HK$228 call. Ownership clarity is key: Tencent and BlackRock remain, while Alibaba has cut below 5%.

🧨 Short interest: 51.59% of float, squeeze conditions set

I’m confident the short setup can’t be ignored. With 2.07M shares short (51.59% of float) and a short ratio of 14.7%, borrow pressure is mounting. Historically, >50% short float led to double-digit rallies in BILI within weeks.

📈 Options flow: institutions are loading bullish calls

I’m bullish on the tape. 30-day IV is 71, mid-band of its 52-week range (49–129). On 14Aug25, $27.5C (29Aug expiry) traded 10,405 contracts, exploding OI to 10,299. Flows included: $27K sweep at $0.55, $48K sweep at $0.96 for $26.5C, and a $140K block at $0.56 on $27.5C. This is not retail noise, it’s institutional conviction.

I’m ready to play the breakout.

Technicals: wedge breakout toward $32

• Daily: Above 9EMA and 21EMA, RSI 54.2, immediate resistance $25.74.

• Weekly: Wedge breakout projection to $32 aligns with consensus targets.

• Monthly: Trend confirmed off $12.72 lows.

Alt-data: engagement fuels monetisation runway

I find the alt-metrics compelling. Web traffic is up 13% to 90M visitors, daily app downloads surged 48% to 14K, while social growth is flat. AI-based engagement score is 83, a strong buy signal. This validates Bilibili’s reputation as the “YouTube of China,” a Gen Z-driven ecosystem of bullet comments and ACG content.

📊 Sector strength: ETF flows stabilising

I think the context matters. BILI outpaces iQiyi and Kuaishou. KWEB ETF inflows have steadied, yuan weakness has paused, and Beijing’s regulatory tone is easing. This sector rotation toward quality Chinese tech is a tailwind.

⚖️ Trading blueprint: structured upside vs downside

I’m currently looking for entries at $23.50–24.20. Breakout above $25.80 triggers $29 with $32 stretch. Stop below $21.50. For leverage, $27.5 calls expiring 29Aug offer convex upside. Volume confirmation above 3M shares is my trigger.

Why TigerAI is right

I believe this is the kind of asymmetric setup TigerAI is designed to catch: strong fundamentals, Gen Z cultural moat, bullish institutional flows, and high short positioning. The convergence of structural shifts, sentiment, and technical breakout potential makes $BILI one of the most attractive opportunities into earnings.

I assign a 65% probability of rally to $29–32 on a beat, versus 35% retrace to $21–22 on a miss. This is not prediction, it’s a probability framework.

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