To The Moon

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ I’m stepping into this week with a sharp focus on positioning because sentiment, dealer exposures, and macro catalysts are colliding. The risk isn’t the Fed speech alone; it’s the market’s complacency heading into it.

📈 Market sentiment: greed but fragile

The CNN Fear & Greed Index sits at 64 as of 15Aug, firmly in “Greed.” That’s up from 59 last week and 32 one year ago, though it has eased off July’s 73. History shows levels like this often coincide with narrowing breadth and crowded longs.

Since 01Aug, the S&P 500 has surged +211 points (+3.4%) into fresh all-time highs near 6,500. Over 30 years, August averages a –0.56% return, with extremes like 1998 at –14.56% and 2020 at +7.01%. With bulls eyeing 6,500, sentiment says upside exists, but risk-reward is stretched.

⚙️ Dealer exposures and flows

SPX gamma and delta maps show concentrated GEX at $6,470, DEX support building at $6,400, and negative exposure above $6,500. Vanna exposure is mixed, highlighting fragility into OPEX. For SPY, the $642.78–$646.97 range is my pivot band with $644.85 as the fulcrum. Holding above is constructive; losing $642.78 risks an air pocket.

The SPY swing model backs this: risk trigger is $633.04, with momentum pressing upper band resistance at $653.84. Above $635, buyers remain in control. Below, gamma softens and ranges widen.

🛢️ Oil and CTAs

Crude continues to slide, with Q-CTA data showing systematic trend followers cutting length. That cools inflation impulse but also warns of reflexive de-risking in energy equities. For CPI-sensitive tech, it’s a quiet tailwind if crude remains heavy.

🧠 NVDA: geopolitics meets profit

Nvidia won approval to resume AI chip sales into China, though with a 15% revenue share directed to the U.S. government. That’s more than a revenue win; it’s policy as profit. The options smile shows vols easing compared with one month ago, but skew remains put-heavy. Hedgers aren’t relaxing. On fundamentals, data-centre remains the flywheel with strong margin contribution from software attach and networking. BofA’s $220 PT post-split remains credible institutional anchoring.

Structurally, I’m eyeing time spreads and diagonals into earnings; if IV compresses further, I’ll layer calendars around $168–$173.60 strikes, targeting $181.20 on upside extensions.

🚗 TSLA: gamma regime in play

TSLA closed at $330.56 with HVL support at $327.5, put wall at $300, and call resistance at $350. That sets up a positive gamma regime: above $327.5, dealer hedging dampens volatility. If TSLA clears $350, calls flip into fuel for a controlled squeeze. Fibonacci references give me $347.58, $353, and $414.50 as staggered targets. Invalidation: two closes below $327.5 or a flush under $320.

📊 SPX positioning, leveraged ETFs, and conditions

Bloomberg flow data confirms leveraged long ETFs are bleeding capital. Retail beta-chasers are stepping back even as indices push highs, which adds fragility. Goldman’s Financial Conditions Index shows easing conditions almost entirely because of equities. Strip equities out and conditions remain tight, which Powell will note at Jackson Hole.

Dealer maps confirm why: $6,470 is the GEX anchor, $6,500 the resistance wall, and $6,400 the key DEX shelf. Into Powell, this zone matters more than the speech transcript.

🌍 Geopolitical backdrop

SPX options positioning shifted notably as Trump landed in Alaska en route to meet Putin. Macro catalysts are increasingly layered with geopolitics. A market already leaning greedy doesn’t need a sharp headline to wobble.

🔥 What most traders miss

Crowd money is over-allocating to binary headline bets. My edge comes from recognising that the tape is already tilted by sentiment, flows, and dealer hedging. Powell’s words won’t land on a neutral surface; they’ll land on a book leaning greedy, with retail sidelined, and ETFs bleeding.

🛠️ How I’m structuring trades

SPX: play $642–$647 tactical range with short-dated put spreads for insurance if $642 breaks, and $6,500+ call flies if Powell leans dovish.

TSLA: long equity above $327.5, overlay Sep $330–$360 call spreads, trimming near $350.

NVDA: earnings diagonals around $168–$173.60 with upside exposure to $181.20.

Hedges: SPY put flies below $633 through Friday to defend book.

⚠️ Risks and invalidations

• Powell could front-load cuts or double down on inflation vigilance; either would disrupt consensus.

• TSLA rejection at $350 with IV spike signals dealer regime flip.

• NVDA China policy could tighten again.

• A geopolitical surprise could send haven flows ripping.

📊 Watchlist into Jackson Hole

SPX: $6,470–$6,500 zone, $6,400 support

SPY: $642.78, $644.85, $646.97 pivots

TSLA: $327.5 HVL, $350 wall, $353/$414.50 targets

NVDA: skew heavy, $168–$173.60, $181.20 upside

WMT, WDAY, BILI, PANW: implied vs realised earnings moves

Oil: CTA unwinds matter for CPI path

Conclusion

I’m not trading Powell’s speech. I’m trading the setup into it. Greed is elevated, leveraged ETFs are bleeding, and gamma maps show where stress will hit first. If Powell sticks to optionality, the grind higher holds. If he surprises, I’ll rotate fast, cut risk at invalidation, and monetise volatility where others freeze. These aren’t predictions; they’re probability-weighted frameworks.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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