To The Moon

As Q2 2025 earnings season wraps up, a slew of high-growth companies are stealing the show, flipping from losses to profits and sparking investor frenzy. DoorDash ( $DoorDash, Inc.(DASH)$ ), Okta ( $Okta Inc.(OKTA)$ ), Nutanix ( $Nutanix Inc.(NTNX)$ ), TransMedics Group ( $TransMedics Group, Inc.(TMDX)$ ), Toast ( $Toast, Inc.(TOST)$ ), and Remitly Global (RELY) have turned heads with their turnaround tales, while Chinese ADRs like Niu Technologies (NIU), Bilibili (BILI), and Miniso (MNSO) offer global flair. With the S&P 500 at 6,466.58 and Bitcoin at $124,002 adding momentum, these under-the-radar plays boast outsized gains, like NIU’s 30% surge on profitability and MNSO’s 6% pop on toy revenue. The VIX at 14.49 signals calm, but tariffs (30% on EU/Mexico, 35% on Canada) and oil at $75/barrel inject caution. Which ones deserve more attention, and are they your next portfolio stars? This deep dive explores their earnings triumphs, market potential, and strategies to seize the upside.

Earnings Triumphs: The Profit Flip That’s Turning Heads

These companies are rewriting their stories:

• DoorDash (DASH): Q2 revenue hit $2.63 billion (up 23%), with EPS flipping to $0.38 from -$0.02 last year. Marketplace GOV soared 19% to $19.7 billion, driven by 12.7 million monthly active users, sparking a 13% stock jump to $132.25.

• Okta (OKTA): Revenue climbed 16% to $646 million, with EPS at $0.72 (up from $0.31), as subscription growth hit 16% to $632 million. The company raised its FY25 outlook to $2.57-$2.58 billion, fueling a 7% rise to $99.46.

• Nutanix (NTNX): Q4 revenue reached $547.5 million (up 11%), with EPS at $0.27 (above $0.24 expected). ACV Billings grew 20% to $336 million, boosting shares 2% to $57.85.

• TransMedics Group (TMDX): Revenue exploded 117% to $114.3 million, with EPS at $0.35 (from $0.03). OCS sales surged 152% to $103.8 million, driving an 8% stock gain to $169.95.

• Toast (TOST): Revenue up 27% to $1.24 billion, with EPS at -$0.02 (better than -$0.19). ARR hit $1.5 billion (up 31%), lifting shares 6% to $27.71.

• Remitly Global (RELY): Revenue rose 31% to $306.2 million, with EPS at $0.15 (from $0.04). Active customers grew 38% to 6.3 million, pushing shares 4% to $15.65.

• Niu Technologies (NIU): Revenue climbed 21% to $138.3 million, with EPS flipping to $0.12 from -$0.01. E-scooter sales up 18% to 256,000 units, sparking a 30% stock surge to $2.10.

• Bilibili (BILI): Revenue up 15% to $850 million, with EPS at -$0.08 (better than -$0.14). Ads grew 10% to $250 million, but shares fell 6% to $13.86.

• Miniso (MNSO): Q4 revenue surged 24% to $552 million, with EPS at $0.39 (from $0.31). TOP TOY revenue +73% to $110 million, driving a 6% stock gain to $16.50.

These turnarounds, like DASH’s 23% revenue leap and TMDX’s 117% surge, reflect resilience in tech and consumer sectors, offering value at current levels.

Market Forces: Turnaround Fuel or Temporary Hype?

The broader backdrop sets the stage:

• Tech Resilience: Tech dipped 0.9% last week but rebounded with a 1.2% gain today, supporting these growth plays amid a 4.05-to-1 NYSE advancer-decliner ratio.

• Tariff Impact: The 30-35% tariffs on EU/Mexico/Canada, with Prism Capital’s 0.9% GDP cut forecast, could squeeze margins for export-heavy firms, though domestic demand buffers like NIU’s U.S. sales add strength.

• Technical Signals: DASH’s RSI at 65 and support at $130 suggest a steady climb, while NIU’s 2.10 price and resistance at $2.50 hint at a breakout if volume spikes.

• Valuation Debate: DASH’s 25x P/E and TMDX’s 50x exceed norms, sparking questions about sustainability, but BILI’s $13.86 and MNSO’s $16.50 offer value at 15x and 18x.

• Sentiment Split: Optimism on X touts “profit flip magic” for DASH and TMDX, but bearish views warn of a “hype trap” if growth slows, reflecting a market at a crossroads.

The turnaround trend could persist if Q3 data holds.

Your Next Big Win: The Week’s Outlook for August 20-22

Which gem shines brightest?

• DASH Bull Case: At $132.25, a 5-8% rise to $140-$142 is feasible this week if $130 holds, with a $150 target (13% upside) by year-end if GOV hits $80 billion.

• DASH Bear Case: A 5-7% dip to $124-$126 risks if $130 breaks, with $120 as support; a rejection could trigger profit-taking.

• OKTA Bull Case: At $99.46, a 4-6% climb to $103-$105 is possible if $98 holds, with $110 (11% upside) by year-end if subscriptions grow.

• OKTA Bear Case: A 4-6% drop to $94-$95 threatens if $98 fails, with $90 as a floor.

• NTNX Bull Case: At $57.85, a 3-5% gain to $60-$61 is in play if $57 holds, with $65 (12% upside) by year-end if billings surge.

• NTNX Bear Case: A 3-5% slide to $55-$56 looms if $57 breaks, with $53 support.

• TMDX Bull Case: At $169.95, a 5-7% rise to $178-$182 is feasible if $168 holds, with $200 (18% upside) by year-end if sales grow.

• TMDX Bear Case: A 5-7% dip to $161-$163 risks if $168 fails, with $155 as support.

• TOST Bull Case: At $27.71, a 4-6% climb to $29-$29.50 is possible if $27 holds, with $32 (15% upside) by year-end if ARR hits $1.6 billion.

• TOST Bear Case: A 4-6% drop to $26-$26.50 threatens if $27 breaks, with $25 as a floor.

• RELY Bull Case: At $15.65, a 3-5% gain to $16.20-$16.50 is in play if $15.50 holds, with $18 (15% upside) by year-end if customers grow.

• RELY Bear Case: A 3-5% slide to $15-$15.20 looms if $15.50 fails, with $14.50 support.

• NIU Bull Case: At $2.10, a 10-15% rise to $2.31-$2.42 is feasible if $2 holds, with $3 (43% upside) by year-end if sales hit 1 million units.

• NIU Bear Case: A 10-15% dip to $1.89-$1.79 risks if $2 breaks, with $1.75 as support.

• BILI Bull Case: At $13.86, a 5-8% climb to $14.60-$15 is possible if $13.50 holds, with $16 (15% upside) by year-end if ads rebound.

• BILI Bear Case: A 5-8% drop to $13.10-$12.80 threatens if $13.50 fails, with $12 as a floor.

• MNSO Bull Case: At $16.50, a 6-10% gain to $17.50-$18.15 is in play if $16 holds, with $20 (21% upside) by year-end if toy demand persists.

• MNSO Bear Case: A 6-10% slide to $15.50-$15.10 looms if $16 fails, with $14.50 support.

Daily forecasts suggest volatility with upward bias if earnings hold.

Trading Strategies: Seize the Turnaround Wave

Short-Term Plays

• DASH Breakout: Buy at $130-$132, target $140-$145, stop at $128. A 6-11% gain if GOV shines.

• OKTA Dip: Buy at $95-$97, target $105-$110, stop at $93. A 8-13% rebound if subscriptions grow.

• NTNX Momentum: Buy at $57-$58, target $62-$65, stop at $55. A 7-13% upside if billings surge.

• TMDX Rally: Buy at $168-$170, target $180-$185, stop at $165. A 6-9% gain if sales beat.

• TOST Scalp: Buy at $27-$28, target $30-$32, stop at $26. A 7-15% quick win if ARR hits.

• RELY Play: Buy at $15.50-$15.70, target $17-$18, stop at $15. A 8-15% gain if customers grow.

• NIU Surge: Buy at $2.00-$2.10, target $2.50-$3, stop at $1.90. A 19-43% pop if demand holds.

• BILI Recovery: Buy at $13.50-$14, target $15-$16, stop at $13. A 7-15% rebound if ads rebound.

• MNSO Momentum: Buy at $16-$16.50, target $18-$20, stop at $15.50. A 9-21% gain if toys shine.

• Options Kick: Buy $140 DASH calls or $95 OKTA calls (August expiry) for 150-200% gains on a 5-10% move.

Long-Term Investments

• Hold DASH: Buy at $130-$132, target $180-$200 by 2026, for 36-51% upside if GOV hits $80B. Stop at $120.

• Hold OKTA: Buy at $95-$97, target $120-$130, for 24-33% upside if subscriptions grow. Stop at $90.

• Hold NTNX: Buy at $57-$58, target $70-$80, for 21-38% upside if billings surge. Stop at $55.

• Hold TMDX: Buy at $168-$170, target $220-$250, for 29-47% upside if sales grow. Stop at $160.

• Hold TOST: Buy at $27-$28, target $40-$45, for 44-61% upside if ARR hits $1.6B. Stop at $25.

• Hold RELY: Buy at $15.50-$15.70, target $20-$22, for 28-40% upside if customers hit 7M. Stop at $15.

• Hold NIU: Buy at $2.00-$2.10, target $3-$3.50, for 43-67% upside if sales hit 1M. Stop at $1.90.

• Hold BILI: Buy at $13.50-$14, target $18-$20, for 29-43% upside if ads rebound. Stop at $13.

• Hold MNSO: Buy at $16-$16.50, target $22-$25, for 33-51% upside if toys grow. Stop at $15.50.

• Defensive Play: Buy Coca-Cola (KO) at $70-$72, target $78-$80, for 6-14% upside. Stop at $68.

Hedge Strategies

• VIXY ETF: Buy at $14, target $17, stop at $12, to hedge volatility.

• SPY Puts: Use puts at 6,400 for a 5-10% market drop.

• Gold (GLD): Buy at $200, target $210, stop at $195, as a buffer.

My Trading Plan: Betting on the Turnaround Gems

I’m diving into these profit turnarounds with a focused strategy. I’ll buy DASH at $130-$132, targeting $140, with a $128 stop, betting on GOV growth. I’ll add OKTA at $95-$97, aiming for $105, with a $93 stop, on subscription strength. I’ll include NTNX at $57-$58, targeting $62, with a $55 stop, TMDX at $168-$170, targeting $180, with a $165 stop, and TOST at $27-$28, targeting $32, with a $26 stop. For the ADRs, I’ll buy NIU at $2.00-$2.10, targeting $2.50, with a $1.90 stop, BILI at $13.50-$14, targeting $15, with a $13 stop, and MNSO at $16-$16.50, targeting $18, with a $15.50 stop. I’ll hedge with VIXY at $14, targeting $16, and hold 20% cash for a dip to $120 (DASH) or tariff news. I’ll watch Q3 guidance and consumer data closely.

Key Metrics

The Bigger Picture

The earnings season's hidden gems, like DASH’s 23% revenue leap to $2.63 billion and TMDX’s 117% surge to $114.3 million, reflect resilience in tech and consumer sectors as of August 20, 2025, against a 6,466.58 S&P 500 and $115,000 Bitcoin. A 5-15% weekly rise to $140 (DASH) or $180 (TMDX) is possible if $130-$168 supports hold, with long-term targets of $200 (DASH) and $250 (TMDX) by 2026 if growth holds. A 5-10% dip to $120 (DASH) or $160 (TMDX) threatens if tariffs or misses hit, with support at $125 and $165. The 25-50x P/E ratios and ETF inflows (165 billion AUM) show strength, but tariff risks and VIX at 14.49 fuel doubt. Seize the gems with VIXY or GLD hedges, and watch Q3 guidance. This could be your big win—act decisively.

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