To The Moon

Key Dates & Estimates

• Earnings Release: Confirmed for Wednesday, August 27, 2025, after market close

• Quarter Focus: Q2 of fiscal year 2026 (ending July 2025).

• Consensus Estimates:

  Revenue: ~$45.8 billion, ~52% YoY growth.

• EPS: ~$1.00–1.01 per share.

• Company Outlook: Former Q1 posted $44.1 B in revenue with an $8 B hit from H20 export restrictions; Q2 guidance anticipated at ~$45 B, ±2%, and non‑GAAP gross margin around 72%

Why "Leap" or "Trap"?

Bullish Catalysts (“Leap”)

• $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ (Nvidia) remains the AI infrastructure leader and is central to the “AI trade” momentum.

• Analysts continue raising price targets on long-term AI optimism.

• Strong backlog from data-center, enterprise, and international demand remains intact despite macro pressure.

Risks (“Trap”)

• China exposure is dicey: H20 chip production paused amid regulatory crackdown; sales are now subject to U.S. licensing and a 15% revenue-sharing deal .

• Market sentiment is sober: warnings of an AI bubble from OpenAI’s CEO and others, signs of an “AI winter” Investors.

• Tech sector weakness could amplify any Nvidia misstep, given its significant weight in S&P 500 and "Magnificent 7" indices.

Trade Strategy Ideas

Long-Term Thesis

• Nvidia is the AI infrastructure backbone, powering on-prem and cloud compute ecosystems.

• While the China strategy is complicated, mitigation via new chip designs (like B30A) and partnerships (Saudi data center deals) offer growth buffers.

• If margins and China revenues normalize, the stock has room to rally back toward the higher analyst targets.

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