To The Moon

China's Pop Mart, maker of the Labubu doll, says profit soars nearly 400% in first half - CNA

$POP MART(09992)$ Market Snapshot & Catalysts

• New Highs: Pop Mart stock recently hit record highs HK$320–HK$321 following the buzz around the imminent Labubu mini launch.

• Hang Seng Index Entry: Pop Mart will join the Hang Seng Index (and the China Enterprises Index) on September 8, 2025, joining only two other new entrants a move typically favoring higher institutional demand.

• Revenue & Profit Surge: Pop Mart’s H1 2025 net profit spiked nearly 400%, while revenue tripled, and full-year revenue is projected to exceed 30 billion yuan (~US$4.18B) well above prior targets.

• Analyst Sentiment: Analysts remain bullish, with an average target of HK$372, versus the current ~HK$320. The estimated P/E stands at 38 for 2025 and 27 for 2026.

Labubu 4.0 Launch Details

Labubu 4.0 News: Official Mini Version Confirmed & Leaks Explained

• Launch Date: Labubu 4.0 will debut on August 28, 2025 at 9:00 PM CT (Central US Time), featuring “Secret Code of the Heart” mini-style plushies 26 letters A–Z, plus a heart and three symbols.

• Strategic Timing: This launch comes on the heels of recent mini-Labubu hype and sets the stage for another demand surge.

Risks to Watch

• Counterfeit Concerns: Fake Labubu toys (“Lafufus”) continue to spread. Safety regulators in the U.S. and Ireland have issued warnings and recalls.

• Blind-Box Psychology Critique: Critics highlight possible overconsumption, addictive buying behavior, and emotional spending especially among vulnerable groups.

• Global Sensitivities & Bans: Some markets (like Russia and Kurdistan) have raised concerns about the toy’s design and psychological impact, though tangible financial effects haven't been explicit yet.

Your Move: Take Profit or Hold?

Option 1: Take Profit Now

• Capture gains at current highs (~HK$320).

• Mitigate near-term event risk e.g., if Labubu 4.0 rollout stalls or demand underperforms.

• Particularly appealing if you're a short-term trader or if you want to reallocate into other themes.

Option 2: Hold Through Late August

• Ride momentum from the Labubu 4.0 launch and visibility from Hang Seng inclusion on Sept 8.

• If investors continue to bid up expectation, price could climb toward the fast-tracking HK$372 target.

• Just be prepared for possible short-term volatility around the launch drop.

Short-Form Trading Note (Ready to Post)

Pop Mart ($9992.HK) is flexing again fresh record highs on the heels of a near-400% profit surge and full-year revenue guidance above RMB 30B. With Hang Seng index entry locked in for September 8 and a Labubu 4.0 launch due August 28 (9 PM CT), the setup is slick. Analysts are eyeing HK$372. If you’re riding the wave, holding through these catalysts could pay off but if you’d rather lock in gains, now's a clean exit. Traders, your call.

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Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice, nor the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell securities. The views expressed are those of the author and do not account for individual financial circumstances. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You alone are responsible