To The Moon

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ I’m fully convinced tomorrow’s $NVDA earnings are not just a corporate event; they’re a referendum on whether the AI trade can sustain Nvidia’s $4 trillion valuation. Options are implying a 6% swing, or roughly $260B in market cap, which is less than the long-term 7% average. That moderation suggests investors think they have a clearer handle on expectations, but the stakes are historic. Nvidia now sits just below the market cap of Japan’s entire stock market and dwarfs the equity value of the UK, China, Canada, France, and Germany combined.

Options Volatility and Market Positioning

I’m confident the options market is the clearest signal right now. The volatility surface shows elevated front-end implied volatility with skew tilted toward downside puts. The smile curve is steady but wings remain bid; traders are paying up for tail protection.

I’m watching net drift today: $9.8M in calls versus $6M in puts, skewed toward ≤90DTE single-leg call buying. That’s speculative aggression. At the same time, put demand signals institutions hedging against a miss. As Susquehanna’s Chris Murphy noted, the “ripples out of Nvidia might be more interesting than the actual move for Nvidia.”

$OPEN traded 300k contracts 45 min into the open, surpassing companies like $NVDA, $AAPL, $META.

Earnings Track Record and Implied Reactions

I’m deeply focused on history here. Over the last 12 quarters, implied moves averaged 7.7% while realised moves were 7.6% (ORATS). The range is violent: from -19.8% (Aug 2024) to +28.1% (May 2023). The last four reports:

• Feb 2025: -12.6%

• May 2025: +3.3%

• Aug 2024: -19.8%

• May 2024: +14.9%

One-day post-earnings, Nvidia has seen +16% in Q4 2024, +9% in Q1 2025, but -6% in Q2 2025. The pattern reinforces why traders hedge volatility even as directional flow leans bullish.

Previous Quarter Review and Q2 Expectations

I’m here for the numbers. Q1 revenue grew 69% YoY to $44.1B versus $43.3B expected. EPS was $0.96 (adj), beating $0.93. Data center sales hit $39.1B, gaming $3.8B (vs $2.85B est), automotive $567M. That growth would be enviable for most chipmakers, though it was Nvidia’s slowest percentage gain in two years.

NVDA’s operating engine is running hotter: higher gross margin, superior FCF conversion, and a step-change in capital efficiency versus AMD, with revenue growth still outpacing the peer set.

Q2 consensus:

• Revenue: $46.1B (guidance $44.1–45.9B)

• Adjusted net income: $24.6B

• Adjusted EPS: $1.01

I’m watching for commentary on GB200 deployments, networking momentum, and initial GB300 orders. The China H20 resumption is a tailwind, though slow ramp and political guidance remain constraints. Gross margin trajectory into the mid-70s will be critical for valuation support.

Strategic Roadmap and Partnerships

I’m unequivocally optimistic about Nvidia’s roadmap. Blackwell chips are sold out for 2025, Blackwell Ultra enters production H2 2025, and Rubin architecture is already set for 2026. Nvidia’s AI Factory concept strengthens vertical integration; turning raw data into intelligence within sovereign AI systems. 

Humain is building 100MW sites in Riyadh and Dammam for 2026, with a ~$540M order of $NVDA Blackwell chips & is targeting 1.9GW capacity by 2030 alongside a $10B $AMD deal.

Strategic partnerships include:

• Foxconn + Taiwan’s government: supercomputer factory with 10,000 Blackwell GPUs.

• Saudi Arabia’s Humain: 18,000 GB300 chips.

• Automotive: Toyota + Aurora/Continental partnerships via DRIVE.

• Healthcare: IQVIA, Illumina, Mayo Clinic.

This ecosystem expansion reinforces Nvidia as not just a chipmaker but the infrastructure layer for AI adoption worldwide.

China Revenue-Sharing Agreement

I’m confident the August 2025 revenue-sharing agreement with the US government, where Nvidia and AMD pay 15% of China AI chip sales in exchange for export licences, is a pivotal development. China accounts for 13% of NVDA’s revenue, but actual share could be higher. If restrictions ease and sales double, revenue could rise +10% net despite the levy. Wall Street sees the levy as a negative precedent but recognises “85% is better than 0%.”

Macro and Global Risks

I’m watching global headwinds:

• Trump’s firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook shook US monetary credibility.

• France’s CAC 40 faces pressure from €44B budget cuts and a no-confidence vote.

• September seasonality historically ranks as the weakest month for equities, adding volatility risk into NVDA’s setup.

Despite Powell’s dovish Jackson Hole stance, Nvidia sellers took control in August, breaking the clean uptrend channel that carried the stock through much of 2025. The $150 level is now a critical support line flagged by Bespoke as the battleground to defend a year’s worth of gains.

Technical Landscape

I’m tactically positioned on the chart. Current price: $181.27, with shares closing Monday at $179.81 (+1.02%) while the S&P 500 fell 0.43% to 6,439.32, up 9.5% YTD. Key levels:

• Upside: $185, $190, extensions toward $200+.

• Downside: $174.50, $162 (volume shelf), $154.63 (harmonic level).

• Long-term: $150 is the line in the sand.

The 4H chart shows Keltner/Bollinger compression. A clean break will set direction, and with options implying ±6%, we’re right at the hinge.

My Positioning and Unrealised Gains

I’m putting my money where my conviction is. As of this morning, I’m sitting on an unrealised gain of +$5,308.14 in my NVDA long. My cost basis is $176.32 and the stock is trading at $181.60. This positioning isn’t about luck; it’s a deliberate allocation built on Nvidia’s dominant AI trajectory and the asymmetric setup around earnings. I’m confident this gain reflects both the strength of the trend and my commitment to tactical positioning ahead of the binary event tomorrow.

Competitive Landscape: AMD’s Push

I’m watching $AMD carefully. Truist upgraded AMD to Buy with a PT raise from $173 to $213, citing stronger demand for data center CPUs and AI GPUs. Hyperscalers are increasingly considering AMD as a cost-effective alternative to Nvidia clusters.

Elliott wave counts suggest AMD is in wave 5, targeting $190–236 if $152 holds. A break below risks $144 or even $131. AMD’s MI355X GPUs are showing 30% better inference throughput per $ versus Nvidia’s Blackwell. AMD also teamed with IBM for “quantum-centric supercomputing.” This is the first credible sign of Nvidia’s ~90% market share facing erosion.

Options Income Strategy Example

I’m extremely confident covered calls remain one of the most effective volatility yield plays. Against 100 shares at $122.75 average, I sold $185 calls for $2.37 each, pocketing $237. Worst case: I sell shares at $185, still locking gains. Best case: NVDA closes lower, I retain both shares and premium. The strategy yielded 1.7% in a week. I’m here for systematic yield extraction rather than speculation.

ETF and Passive Flow Amplification

I’m confident ETFs will amplify post-earnings moves:

• $SHOC: 27.3% NVDA weight.

• $SMH: 24.0%.

• $DARP: 21.6%.

If NVDA beats, passive rebalancing chases higher. If NVDA misses, ETF flows magnify the downside.

Mag 7 Context

I’m focused on positioning within the Magnificent Seven. YTD returns:

• NVDA +33%

• META +29%

• MSFT +21%

• GOOGL +9%

• AMZN +4%

• AAPL -9%

• TSLA -16%

Nvidia is the undisputed leader of the pack, but the divergence highlights how its print can dictate sector rotation.

Economic Events to Watch

I’m watching the calendar: Durable Goods Orders (July) hit at 8:30am, and CB Consumer Confidence (August) drops at 10:00am. One lands pre-market and the other during trading hours, setting the stage for volatility even before Nvidia’s numbers drop.

Closing Conviction

I’m confident tomorrow isn’t just about Nvidia’s numbers; it’s a test of narrative. Can AI infrastructure justify valuations bigger than nations? Can gross margins sustain mid-70s while competitors like AMD gain ground?

“It’s just a Goldilocks time for Nvidia,” as Matt Amberson at ORATS put it. But with the stock up 34% YTD and sellers breaking the clean uptrend, the battleground is as tense as ever.

This isn’t just a trade, it’s a transition in narrative. Nvidia’s print will determine whether the AI trade consolidates leadership or fractures under valuation gravity.

Are you positioned for the binary outcome, or do you prefer to wait for post-earnings price discovery?

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