To The Moon

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ I’m fully convinced this is a pivotal stretch for $NVDA: the numbers remain exceptional, execution is still elite, and yet the tape is forcing a sober re-rating of expectations. I’m tactically positioned long and I’m treating this as a high-conviction, data-led navigation rather than a dopamine trade.

💡 Conviction snapshot

I believe the $60B buyback approved on 26Aug25 materially changes downside elasticity. I’m confident Blackwell demand and an annual cadence keep the revenue engine compounding. I’m watching the China pathway as the narrative swing factor. I’m prepared for volatility as premium sellers harvest. I’m targeting incremental adds only at my predefined zones. I’m here for the multi-year AI infrastructure cycle, not a single quarter’s mood.

🧭 Price action and positioning today

Down on the day after the post-earnings bounce; spot near $178.75, off about 1.6%. Yesterday’s squeeze faded as implieds bled and premium writers dominated. I added on the drop and I’m up almost $7; I’ve moved my stops higher to protect the gain. I’m not chasing breakouts into resistance without confirmation because the buyback provides a floor over time, not a guarantee intraday.

🧾 Earnings print and guide in one page

• Revenue: $46.7B, up 56% YoY.

• Data Center: $41.1B; a touch light versus some whisper numbers but still colossal.

• EPS ex-items: $1.05 versus $1.01 consensus.

• Q3 revenue guide: about $54B plus or minus 2%. In line with the average estimate, shy of the loftiest calls that crept toward $60B.

• Added $60B to repurchases; prior authorisation had $14.7B left.

I’m confident that an annual product cycle, mix shift to Blackwell, and still-sold-out Hopper keep near-term utilisation high. I’m equally candid that the guide met the mean yet missed the mania; that difference is exactly what we’re repricing.

📰 Media and narrative temperature

Post-print coverage was split: a handful of headlines emphasised records and demand; most highlighted the after-hours drawdown, a modest data centre miss versus some stretch expectations, and China uncertainty. That divergence is healthy; it clears froth and lets the tape find real buyers.

🏗️ The capex spine that matters

Hyperscalers are still pushing an enormous capex wave. Management framed roughly $600B of data centre spend this year from the megacaps; Jensen reiterated a $3T to $4T AI infrastructure build by decade end. I’m unequivocally optimistic that this spine, plus sovereign and enterprise waves, sustains multi-year demand even as quarter-to-quarter cadence oscillates.

🇨🇳 China: optionality with teeth

No H20 revenue booked last quarter and none in the Q3 guide. Management still sees a genuine chance to ship constrained-spec Blackwell into China if Washington approves; reported discussions include a potential US take-rate on revenue and licensing gatekeeping. Jensen framed China as a $50B opportunity that could grow 50% per year.

Paul Meeks of Freedom Capital Markets put it bluntly: “We need China more than they need us.” That line captures the asymmetry investors fear; Nvidia’s ability to access the second-largest computing market in the world directly impacts both earnings growth and broader market stability.

Export controls already pressured data centre revenue, with $41.1B coming in just shy of Street estimates and $4B lost from halted H20 shipments. CFO Colette Kress still expects $2B to $5B of H20 sales could clear this quarter if licensing accelerates. But until then, Nvidia’s largest customers remain the hyperscalers, which account for half of data centre revenue.

Zooming out, Nvidia now makes up roughly 8% of the S&P 500. That means export controls and licensing uncertainty aren’t just a company story; they ripple through the benchmark itself and by extension every passive investor in the market.

🧱 Customer concentration: understand the risk, respect the scale

Roughly 85% of revenue is concentrated in six customers with two alone at 23% and 16% of sales. That concentration is a feature of hyperscaler-driven cycles. I’m conscious that any pause or optimisation by one mega-cap can ripple through the model; it is also true that diversification is improving via neoclouds, sovereign AI, and enterprise racks.

🧮 Street recalibration after the print

Upgrades rolled in:

• JPMorgan to $215 from $170

• Rosenblatt to $215 from $200

• Benchmark to $220 from $190

• BofA to $235 from $220

• Citi to $215 from $170

• Jefferies to $205 from $200

• KeyBanc to $230 from $215

• DA Davidson to $195 from $135

• Truist to $228 from $210

Oppenheimer reiterated Outperform and raised to $225, highlighting Blackwell as the primary driver of the Q3 sequential step-up with Hopper still selling alongside.

Wedbush’s Daniel Ives added colour, calling Jensen the “Godfather of AI” and framing Nvidia as the undisputed king of the AI revolution. His view: “There is one chip in the world fueling the AI Revolution and it’s Nvidia…that narrative is clear from these results and the positive commentary from Jensen.” He highlighted the data centre unit’s $41.1B result, which represented 56% annual growth and a 17% sequential jump, alongside the $46.74B topline that cleared Street by $610M. Ives argued any pullback should be viewed as a buying opportunity, with NVDA on track to a $5T market cap by early 2026. His punchline was blunt: “The chip landscape remains NVDA’s world with everybody else paying rent.”

I’m confident these targets and commentary reflect an earnings power bridge where Blackwell carries the baton into 2026 while the buyback smooths drawdowns.

🧰 Product cycle and supply

Rubin is taped out at TSMC with a more mature supply chain; NVLink at rack scale keeps the moat wide. Management said H100 and H200 remain sold out, Blackwell is spoken for into next year, and customers are renting capacity from other clouds. I’m comfortable that supply remains the limiter; that’s a good problem for margin preservation.

📈 Options, premium, and how I’m trading it

Into and after earnings, calls priced perfection. The guide reset meant premium sellers won as IV slid and realised failed to match. I’m leaning into defined-risk call diagonals and staggered shares against my levels rather than naked premium buys. I’m watching skew around $170 and $185 to signal whether dealers start pulling the spot toward a fresh pin.

📦 Buyback dynamics

A $60B increment allows real absorption over the next several quarters. Corporates do not habitually pay top tick; they layer. If management wants inventory cheaply, they can be patient while the market digests. That’s why I’m conscious they may let the stock drift lower into Autumn/Fall before becoming aggressive with deployment. It also explains why I’m happy letting price come to my zones rather than forcing entries at resistance.

📊 Valuation to execution

At this pace, the market is underwriting north of $200B annualised revenue within a few years. The fulcrum is execution versus concentration risk. Price-to-sales remains elevated for a semis name, which is appropriate only if the annual cadence and rack-scale software advantage monetise as advertised. FCF conversion is robust and operating leverage remains powerful. I’m confident that buyback-aided per-share math plus mix-shift to Blackwell sustains premium multiples even if headline growth slows from hyperbolic to simply exceptional.

🌐 ETF and factor currents

$QQQ and $SOXX remain the liquidity conduits. When $NVDA dips, passive flows cushion, yet crowding means factor unwinds can overshoot. I’m watching $SPY breadth; if megacaps rotate while cyclicals catch a bid, $NVDA can consolidate without breaking the secular story.

🧭 Technical map and levels I care about

Intraday: $174 to $184 is the active Keltner and Bollinger conflict zone. The 30-min chart shows repeated rejections near $182 to $184 with responsive bids around $175 to $176.

4H: rising channel faded; support layers stack near $176, then $172, then $170 where the lower volatility bands and prior volume shelves converge.

Daily swing: a clean reclaim and hold above $184 sets a path to $188 then $193. Lose $175 on volume and I’m eyeing $172 then $170 for the next add, with $167 as the line that would force me to revisit the thesis timing.

I’m targeting staggered adds at $176 and $172 if we flush; I’m confident a decisive close above $184 justifies adding momentum exposure with tight risk.

📋 Position status and risk

I’m long. I added on the post-print dip and I’m managing it with raised stops. I’m not levering up into resistance; I’m comfortable adding only at my zones or on a confirmed breakout. Position risk is trimmed if we lose $172 on a closing basis with expanding volume.

Here’s my current $NVDA $170C position, which is up nearly 10% from entry, reflecting how I’ve positioned tactically while respecting risk. Stops are raised to protect the gain, and I’m keeping my focus on disciplined execution rather than chasing noise.

🧩 History does not repeat, but it rhymes

The dot-com era saw serial upgrades that ignored cash-flow maturity and unit economics; many names later retraced 80 to 90 percent. $NVDA is not that vintage: it is cash generative with a full-stack moat and capacity constraints. Still, the lesson stands: when expectation gaps widen too far above realised cadence, price corrects. I’m managing that gap with discipline, not denial.

🤝 Second-order beneficiaries to watch

CoreWeave rallied on $NVDA’s print as GPU cloud demand and new DC funding accelerate; fresh analyst coverage adds credibility. If the AI infrastructure build stays intact, names levered to accelerator availability and rack-scale orchestration can keep compounding alongside $NVDA.

🎯 What gets me more aggressive

• China green-light for constrained Blackwell or a clearer H20 path: raises outer-year revenue slope.

• Evidence that hyperscaler capex outlay continues to expand quarter on quarter rather than plateau.

• A weekly close above $188 with breadth; that unlocks a measured move toward the low $190s.

• Volatility crush stabilising while call buyers re-emerge on tenor beyond weekly options.

🧯 What makes me de-risk

• A break and hold below $170 with negative breadth in $SOXX.

• Tangible capex deferrals from one or more top customers.

• Buyback pacing that signals hesitancy rather than conviction.

• Policy headlines that block China pathways without offsets.

🔥 Bottom line

I’m extremely confident the secular AI infrastructure cycle remains intact; I’m equally realistic that the market is recalibrating from euphoria to excellence. This is where fundamentals and positioning collide. I believe disciplined execution, an annual product drumbeat, and a $60B repurchase authorisation form a durable floor while the narrative resets. This isn’t just a trade; it’s a transition in narrative with optionality that still tilts right.

What’s your playbook here: accumulate into $176 to $172, or wait for a weekly close above $184 to re-enter with momentum?

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