To The Moon

Alibaba: Earnings, Value Outlook & Technical Insights 💼📈🔍

On to Alibaba for quite a bit as good long and diversification with $75usd. Now it's relative fair value and hope it goes higher. Coz still have options to sell. Let's see. Hope the New AI Chip is gonna be a big mega star. 

China market Wise, Alicloud is the preferred one. So long term is an advantage. And Alipay still a leader and probably a southeast Asian Leader too,... and growing to more markets 

For Now... here we go

1. Earnings Recap: Cloud Shines Despite Retail Headwinds

• Mixed results: In the quarter ending June 2025, Alibaba’s total revenue was ¥247.65 billion (~US$34.6 billion)—slightly below estimates of ¥252.92 billion, weighed down by a struggling e-commerce segment. 

• Bright spot: Its cloud computing segment surged 26% YoY to ¥33.40 billion, beating the expected 18.4% growth. 

2. Value Narrative: Strategic AI Pivot & Chip Innovation

• New AI chip unveiled: Alibaba has developed a more versatile AI inference chip aimed at reducing reliance on Nvidia. This chip—still in testing—supports inference tasks broadly and is compatible with Nvidia’s software platform. 

• Long-term commitment: The company plans to invest over US$50–53 billion in AI and cloud infrastructure over the next three years—a bold move for future growth. 

• Sector momentum: This aligns with broader industry efforts in China to transition from Nvidia chips to domestic AI solutions amid geopolitical challenges. 

3. Technical Analysis & Entry Strategy

• Recent performance: On August 29, 2025, Alibaba shares traded around US$119–120, down slightly in pre-market due to muted retail earnings. 

• Entry point ideas:

• Conservative approach: Consider accumulating near the US$115–118 range, which could act as short-term support.

• Growth-sensitive investors: A breakout above US$122–125 on renewed confidence in AI/cloud momentum could signal stronger upside.

• Long-term fair value: With consistent cloud growth and strategic AI investments, Alibaba could justify a forward P/E of ~15–18, especially if earnings accelerate from AI and enterprise services.

*PS: DYOR and Not Financial Advice