To The Moon

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ 📆 August Seasonality vs September Risk

I’m watching August finish stronger than usual. $SPY is closing the month up ~3%. The last time we saw this was August 2020, which ended +7% but gave back 65% of those gains in September with a –4.5% decline. Seasonality warns that September rarely inches green, so I’m weighing whether we’ll see a controlled pullback or a surprise August–September back-to-back surge given the April 30% drawdown already reset positioning.

📍 Key Dark Pool & Technical Levels

I’m tracking intraday rejections at $644.85 and immediate support at $643.34, with $642.78 beneath. Multiple uploaded Keltner and Bollinger overlays show SPY compressing inside narrowing bands, signaling volatility expansion is ahead. The 5m breakdown chart confirmed the opening range break, aligning with end-of-month sell pressure.

🪞 Possible Inverse Head & Shoulders Formation

I’m also watching the potential development of an IHS pattern on $SPY. The left shoulder and head are already defined, and if the right shoulder stabilizes above the $643–644 support shelf, it sets up a constructive reversal base into September. That neckline sits near $648, meaning any breakout above that zone could trigger a measured move higher, invalidating the seasonal weakness playbook. For now, that $643–648 range is where the battle is being fought.

💥 Options Flow & Gamma Exposure

I’m seeing relentless put flow:

• 0DTE puts > calls by $5M+

• 7DTE puts > calls by $800K

• ≤90DTE puts > calls by $15M+

Gamma exposure clustered at $650 earlier but faded as SPY slipped, leaving little negative gamma under spot. That means dealers aren’t forced into aggressive downside hedging yet, suggesting a grind lower rather than panic.

📊 Macro & CTA Context

SPX is still climbing on CTA support per the MenthorQ chart, which explains the resilience. But Edgeful’s screeners line up with today’s action:

• SPY → bearish bias, target close below $647.47

• QQQ → bullish bias, target close above $574.67

• IWM → bearish bias, target close below $236.76

SPY has already exceeded 94.7% of ADR and triggered opening candle continuation downside, giving mechanical confirmation to the selloff.

📈 Macro Data Check

July Core PCE came in at +0.3% MoM / +2.9% YoY, right in line with expectations. Spending and income data were strong, keeping the Fed steady but leaving September ripe for volatility.

🔮 My Takeaway

I’m bracing for September to deliver sharper swings than August. The setup favors a pullback unless $647–648 is reclaimed quickly. If history rhymes, September could give back part of August’s gains, setting up prime buying opportunities into year-end. If CTA flows keep pressing, the market could surprise with consecutive upside months.

These are not predictions. They’re probability-weighted frameworks.

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