To The Moon

$Broadcom(AVGO)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $Alibaba(BABA)$ I’m not treating this as a routine week. What’s lining up between earnings, Fed reports, global trade rulings, and record highs is the type of setup that creates outsized opportunity if you’re prepared; and landmines if you’re not.

🌍 Macro Backdrop: A Market Balancing on Policy Shocks

The $SPX has closed above 6,500 for the first time in history. Yet beneath the surface, risk is building. A US federal appeals court ruled most of Trump’s tariffs illegal, striking at the heart of his global trade policy. The ruling is paused until 14Oct, giving the White House time to appeal to the Supreme Court. That means tariffs remain in force for now; but the binary outcome into Q4 is now a live macro overhang.

🇨🇳 China is starting September on a very different note. CSI300 blue chips jumped more than 10% in August, fuelled by home-grown AI chip optimism. Alibaba surged nearly 19% on cloud momentum, adding $50B in value. JP Morgan upgraded $BABA to $170 (from $140), signalling institutions are repositioning. When heavyweight banks shift targets like this, I treat it as a signal, not noise.

At the same time, China’s manufacturing sector is showing sustained recovery momentum. Production activity has accelerated, market expectations are improving, and exports are being redirected aggressively. US tariffs have made the American market harder to access, forcing China to cut prices and push goods into new regions. That creates a potential deflationary shock radiating across emerging markets and Europe.

Nowhere is this shift clearer than in the GPU market. Huawei has launched a 96GB VRAM GPU under $2,000, compared with NVIDIA’s RTX 6000 Pro starting north of $10,000. For Beijing, this is not just about semis, it’s about strategic control of AI infrastructure. NVIDIA remains the US’s most important corporate weapon, controlling over 90% of the global AI chip market. A credible Chinese challenger that undercuts on price is more than a commercial threat; it’s a geopolitical move.

The scale of what’s at stake becomes obvious when you look at valuations. In August 2025, the combined market cap of the top 10 US stocks reached $22.7T, larger than China’s entire $16.3T equity market, larger than the EU at $12.8T, and dwarfing Japan at $7.4T. Individually, NVIDIA at $4.2T and Microsoft at $3.8T are each bigger than most national markets. When China enters the GPU space, it’s not just a new competitor; it’s a direct challenge to assets bigger than entire economies.

📊 Economic Calendar: Data That Will Drive the Tape

• Tue 2Sep: ISM Manufacturing (48.5% vs 48.0% prior), Construction Spending.

• Wed 3Sep: JOLTS Job Openings (7.4M), Factory Orders (–1.3%), Beige Book, Fed speakers Musalem & Kashkari.

• Thu 4Sep: ADP (+75k), Jobless Claims (231k), Productivity 2.6%, Trade Deficit –$77.8B, ISM Services 50.5%, Fed’s Williams & Goolsbee.

• Fri 5Sep: NFP (+78k), Unemployment 4.3%, Wages +0.3% MoM / +3.7% YoY.

Labour softness is creeping in. Payrolls at +78k are far below last year’s 3-month average of 123k, and the unemployment rate ticking to 4.3% tells me the Fed will lean dovish into CPI on 11Sep.

💡 Earnings Watch: Critical Sector Prints

• Tue: $NIO, $ZS.

• Wed: $CRM, $M, $DLTR, $CPB, $AI, $GTLB, $FIG.

• Thu: $AVGO, $LULU, $DOCU, $PATH, $IOT.

• Fri: $ABM.

Options are pricing double-digit moves in $ASAN, $DLTH, $GWRE. I see traders crowding into these earnings lotteries, but the edge isn’t there; it’s in structuring spreads where IV is mispriced.

🔎 Technical Setups I’m Tracking

$AVGO: Support $1,700, resistance $1,875, Fib retrace $1,735. RSI 55 with MACD compression. I’m leaning bullish but structuring a call spread, shorting wings where vol is overpriced. Stop below $1,700.

$BABA: Constructive above $95. Upside $118 (50WMA) and $135 (Fib cluster). The AI Cloud surge isn’t hype; it’s a TAM expansion that demands a multiple re-rating.

$TSLA: Model 3 LR cut to 259,500 yuan ($36,279) in 🇨🇳. Price war is alive, but I’m watching $320–$325 compression. Break above $353 could ignite algorithmic flows to $414 Fib. Invalidation: close under $310.

$JPM: ATH $299.28, P/B 2.4x. I’m trimming into strength but holding a core. Banks are still the fortress trade while balance sheet quality is rewarded.

$SPX: Closing above 6,500 with risk trigger tested. Support remains firm, but I see tail risks tied to macro shocks.

$NVDA: Option smile steady. Downside protection clustered <200 strikes, long-dated vols anchored. Market is calm at the surface, but traders are hedging right under spot. That equilibrium is fragile.

⚠️ Risks I’m Accounting For

1. Supreme Court ruling on tariffs could trigger binary macro shock.

2. Labour undershoot accelerates Fed dovish pivot.

3. China’s August AI surge reverses on profit-taking.

4. Options markets underpricing tail events, especially in megacap AI.

🎯 Trade Structuring: Where My Edge Is

Most traders will overpay for lottery calls this week. I’m selling wings and financing directional spreads, targeting asymmetric payoffs where IV is misaligned with realised vol. For example, on $AVGO I prefer short-wing call spreads, and on $TSLA I’d scale equity above $325 with defined risk under $310.

🌍 Bigger Picture: Power, Policy, and Innovation

This isn’t just about earnings per share. It’s about who controls the levers of growth. Courts deciding tariff legality, Beijing pushing AI sovereignty, and labour softness testing Fed credibility all collide in price discovery. Markets aren’t trading quarterly EPS; they’re trading power.

📌 My Watchlist

$AVGO, $CRM, $ZS, $LULU, $BABA, $TSLA, $JPM, $NVDA

✅ The conclusion: These aren’t predictions. They’re probability-weighted frameworks, and I’m positioning accordingly. When others chase headlines, I’m focusing on levels, flows, and the silent signals the market leaves behind.

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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