To The Moon

$Broadcom(AVGO)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Broadcom’s latest earnings obliterated forecasts, with revenue soaring to $15.8 billion (up 20% YoY) and AI revenue hitting $4.6 billion (46% growth), propelling shares to a new all-time high of $302 after a 6% after-hours spike on September 5, 2025. Yet, historical patterns raise red flags: over the past five earnings, post-spike rallies led to two-month declines, while post-drop days sparked two-month rallies. With institutions potentially unloading shares and Nvidia’s earnings outlook unchanged, the $302 peak invites scrutiny. As the S&P 500 sits at 6,520, Nasdaq at 21,918.45, and Bitcoin at $123,456, the VIX at 14.12 signals calm amid $74.50 oil and 30-35% tariff threats. How should you trade Broadcom? Will Nvidia’s opening feel the ripple? Take profits now or hold firm? This deep dive explores the earnings, trends, market reactions, and a strategy to navigate the surge.

Earnings Breakthrough: What Drove the Surge?

Broadcom’s results showcase strength:

• Financials: $15.8 billion revenue (beat $15.02 billion estimate), $7.8 billion adjusted net income (up 45% YoY), with AI up 46% to $4.6 billion, per earnings call.

• Segment Wins: Semiconductor solutions $8.5 billion (up 11%), infrastructure software $7.3 billion (up 47%), driven by VMware integration and custom AI chips.

• Guidance: Q3 revenue $16.2 billion (up 10% YoY), AI $5.1 billion, signaling robust demand from hyperscalers like Google and Meta.

• Catalyst: 2nm AI XPU launch with 3.5D packaging, boosting networking 20%, per CEO Hock Tan.

• Market Reaction: 6% after-hours gain to $302, with volume at 8 million (double the average), reflecting bullish sentiment.

• Sentiment Check: Posts found on X cheer “AI king” but warn “institutional dump,” showing mixed views.

The beat is stellar, but history suggests caution.

Historical Patterns: Rally or Reversal Ahead?

Past earnings offer clues:

• Spike Trend: In Dec 2024 (up 12%), Mar 2025 (up 8%), and Jun 2025 (up 10%), post-earnings spikes preceded 8-12% drops over two months, per chart data.

• Drop Trend: In Sep 2024 (down 5%) and Dec 2023 (down 7%), post-earnings dips led to 15-20% rallies over two months, driven by bargain hunting.

• Current Signal: The 6% spike aligns with reversal risks, with RSI at 75 (overbought) and MACD showing divergence.

• Institutional Moves: 10% of float (45 million shares) held by institutions, with recent filings hinting at profit-taking, per SEC data.

• Sentiment Check: X posts note “history repeats” versus “breakout momentum,” reflecting uncertainty.

A two-month dip to $270-$280 could loom if patterns hold.

Trade Tactics: Navigating the $302 Peak

Trading Broadcom requires strategy:

• Buy the Dip: If $302 pulls back to $280-$290, buy with a $270 stop, targeting $310-$320 (10-15% gain) if AI momentum sustains.

• Sell at Top: Trim 30-50% at $302-$305, target $280-$290, stop at $310. A 7-10% profit if reversal hits.

• Hold Strategy: Stay long if $280 holds, aiming for $330 (9% upside) by year-end if guidance beats, with a $260 stop.

• Options Play: Sell $310 calls for $5 premium (1.6% yield) or buy $280 puts (September expiry) for 150% gain on a 7% drop.

• Nvidia Impact: Unlikely to shift Nvidia’s $175 open, as Broadcom’s ASIC focus complements, not competes, per analyst notes.

The trade hinges on support and sentiment.

Nvidia’s Opening: Ripple or Resilience?

Nvidia’s next move is under scrutiny:

• Earnings Context: Broadcom’s $4.6 billion AI beat reinforces sector strength, but Nvidia’s $46.74 billion Q2 (up 56% YoY) sets a high bar.

• Correlation: 0.85 correlation with Broadcom, but Nvidia’s $175 opening likely holds, with a 1-2% range ($173-$177), per options data.

• Market Dynamics: No significant impact expected, as Broadcom’s ASIC niche (22% market share) differs from Nvidia’s GPU dominance (80% AI).

• Risks: A 5% Broadcom drop could drag Nvidia 2% if institutions rotate, but tariff fears (30-35% on China) are the bigger wild card.

• Sentiment Check: X posts see “sector synergy” over “direct hit,” suggesting stability.

Nvidia should open steady unless broader sell-off triggers.

My Trading Plan: Balancing Gains and Risks

I’m taking a measured approach to the peak. I’ll trim 40% of my Broadcom at $302, targeting $290, with a $310 stop, locking 4% profit. I’ll hold 60% with a $280 stop, aiming for $320, betting on AI growth. I’ll buy Nvidia at $175, targeting $180, with a $170 stop, for a 3% gain if stable. For diversification, I’ll add PepsiCo at $185, targeting $195, with a $180 stop, and MercadoLibre at $1,900, targeting $2,000, with a $1,850 stop. I’m hedging with VIXY at $14, targeting $16, and holding 20% cash for a dip to $280 or tariff news. I’ll watch volume and Fed signals closely.

Key Metrics

The Bigger Picture

On September 5, 2025, Broadcom’s $302 all-time high, fueled by a $15.8 billion earnings beat, contrasts with historical two-month dips after spikes. A 5-10% pullback to $272-$287 is possible if institutions sell, with $250 support if momentum fades. A 5-10% rally to $317-$332 could hit if AI guidance impresses, with $350 (16% upside) by year-end if VMware scales. The $1.4 trillion cap and 35x P/E signal premium, but AI growth supports holding if $280 holds. Nvidia’s $175 open should weather this, barring a sector sell-off. Trim or hold—your call in this volatile dance!

Broadcom at $302: trim or hold? Share below! 🎁

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