To The Moon

$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$ $Carvana Co.(CVNA)$ $Zillow(Z)$ First off, thanks to @Tiger_SG for setting the stage so well. $OPEN’s rally is no ordinary meme stock run. With year-to-date gains now pushing +280% and short interest still elevated at 24% of float, Opendoor has become the hottest battleground in the market: Hedge Funds vs. Retail, Fundamentals vs. Momentum.

📊 Technicals & Price Action

The charts continue to confirm breakout strength across all timeframes. On the 4H and intraday charts, $OPEN is climbing with stacked EMAs, expanding Bollinger/Keltner channels, and explosive volume. Price hit $6.83 on Sep 5, the highest close since August 2022. The 15m and 5m tapes show buyers absorbing every dip and momentum accelerating into the close. The technical picture supports further upside, with $8 as the next realistic target in this squeeze cycle.

💸 Options Flow

Options are where $OPEN’s squeeze narrative gets turbocharged. Over 1.5M contracts traded Thursday (+118% day-over-day), with calls making up 75% of all flow. Friday saw another $225K whale buy into the 31% OTM $9C expiring Oct 10. Implied volatility sits at ~205%, placing it in the top percentile of the market and signaling traders are willing to pay extreme premiums for upside exposure.

Looking inside the chain for Sep 12 expiry:

• $5C (ITM) carries a Delta of 0.91, basically trading like stock. Dealers are already fully hedged here.

• $6C (near the money) has Delta ~0.73 and Gamma 0.190. This is the “sweet spot” where hedging pressure ramps fast.

• $6.5C shows Delta 0.62, Gamma 0.217, and the highest convexity. This is the strike with the most mechanical firepower; if $OPEN holds above $6.50, dealers are forced to buy stock to cover exposure.

• $7C is the true gamma accelerator: Delta 0.51, Gamma 0.220. Break $7 with size and dealer hedging flips into a reflexive feedback loop, squeezing price higher.

• $8C and $9C OTM remain heavily traded lottery tickets, with 33K and 10K contracts respectively. Delta is lighter (0.33 and 0.22), but Gamma remains meaningful, extending the hedging ladder higher.

Theta decay is sharp across the chain (-0.036 to -0.046), which punishes weak hands, but that’s offset by sticky Vega exposure (0.003–0.004) that keeps volatility bid. The net effect is that calls between $6.50 and $7 dominate dealer risk positioning, meaning momentum here can snowball violently.

This is exactly why the $9C whale order matters: it stretches the gamma ladder upward, ensuring that if retail and activists push $OPEN through $7, hedging demand will cascade into the wings, potentially dragging price toward the $8 target and beyond.

⚖️ Activism & Board Pressure

The activism storyline just escalated. Colonel Randian Capital issued a memo arguing the board must engage with the campaign driving $OPEN to be one of the most heavily traded U.S. stocks. “The board most likely won’t want the fight, it’s bad PR and career jeopardy,” the memo states, concluding board change is likely.

Eric Jackson confirmed he’s received interest from a law firm representing $OPEN shareholders, investigating whether directors are failing fiduciary duties. He demanded Keith Rabois be appointed to the board by Monday, calling it a non-negotiable ultimatum. The market responded decisively: $OPEN spiked 12% on the news. Retail and Team Rabois are dictating the narrative, and for once, the board is under immense pressure to follow.

📰 Market Narrative

$OPEN was the number one trending story on Yahoo yesterday. Citron Research tried to swing the narrative, calling Opendoor a “stock promo and a science project in how to burn money,” while pumping $LDI. Retail brushed it off, sending Opendoor higher. The market has clearly chosen sides: momentum is with Jackson and retail, not with short sellers.

🏦 Macro Context

The S&P 500 just closed at record highs, with rate cut expectations still in play. Lower borrowing costs are rocket fuel for housing-linked names, and for Opendoor, they expand TAM directly. Coupled with activist firepower and options-driven flows, macro tailwinds strengthen the setup for another leg higher.

🔎 Short Squeeze Mechanics

Short interest has risen with price, not fallen. S3 Partners shows nearly 160M shares short with a 7.2 days-to-cover ratio. Daily short volume remains heavy at 50M shares. Hedge funds are pressing harder, but this increases the risk of a face-ripping squeeze if price action forces covers. The parallels to $CVNA’s early breakout are hard to ignore. eyedrops

📌 Conclusion

I believe $OPEN now represents one of the most asymmetric trades in the market. On one side, Citadel, Jane Street, Wolverine, and Citron are pressing shorts and highlighting structural flaws. On the other, retail investors, Eric Jackson, and Keith Rabois are turning the stock into a public activist campaign. The technicals point to $8 as the next upside level, and options flows confirm institutional money is hedging against upside, not just downside.

👉❓Can it be the next Carvana? The activist fight, high short interest, and retail energy give it the hallmarks of an early $CVNA-style run. What’s the price target? Near term, $8 looks achievable, and in a true squeeze, double digits are possible. Do you chase or sit out? Traders chasing momentum may ride the squeeze higher, but must respect 200%+ IV and brutal intraday swings. Sidelines might feel safer, yet risk missing a generational-style move if the board shifts or shorts capitulate. These are not predictions. They’re probability-weighted frameworks.

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