To The Moon

$Gemini Group Global Corp.(GMNI)$ $Figure Technology Solutions (FT Intermediate)(FIGR)$ $Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ I believe Figure Technology’s IPO is the most consequential blockchain-fintech listing since Circle. Priced at $18–$20 per share, aiming for $526M in proceeds, a $4.1B valuation, and with a $50M anchor from Duquesne Family Office, this isn’t hype; it’s a seismic shift. When Goldman Sachs, Jefferies, and BofA Securities lead the syndicate, the signal is clear: Wall Street is betting on blockchain rails at scale.

🗓️ IPO Calendar

🌟 Figure (FIGR): Pricing 10Sep25, trading 11Sep25 on Nasdaq

🌟 Gemini (GEMI): Pricing & listing 11Sep25

🌟 Klarna (KLAR), Legence (LGN), BRCB, VIA: Also in the same crowded week

🌟 Roadshows: Aptera Motors (SEV), VAST Data

🏦 Deal Structure & Valuation

• Shares offered: 26.3M (82% primary, 18% secondary)

• Net proceeds: ~$376M ($447M with overallotment)

• Market cap: ~$3.9–$4.1B post-offer; EV ~$3.6B

• Anchor order: Duquesne Family Office committing $50M (~10% of deal)

🔗 Blockchain Edge No Competitor Can Replicate

Figure’s Provenance Blockchain; 27B+ transactions and 168 partners; is the backbone of a financial stack no rival has matched. Its rails support:

🌟 DART: lien & eNote registry

🌟 Figure Connect: credit marketplace

🌟 Figure Exchange: digital asset trading

🌟 YLDS: SEC-registered yield-bearing stablecoin

Loans fund in 10 days vs 42 at banks, saving hundreds per loan. Figure leads as the top non-bank HELOC originator, funding over $16B and expanding from $12.5B just last year.

📈 Financial Performance That Commands Respect

• 2024 revenue: $339M (+22% YoY)

• Q2’25 adjusted EBITDA margin: 41%

• 1H25 net profit: $29M vs $13M loss prior year

• Outstanding loans: ~$11B

• Provenance transactions: $50B+

This isn’t just growth; it’s profitable dominance.

🌍 Growth Drivers

🌟 40% more HELOC financing projected in 2025 vs $5.5B in 2024

🌟 Half of top 20 U.S. mortgage firms already using Figure’s rails

🌟 Vertical expansion: first lien mortgages, auto loans

🌟 Horizontal expansion: equities via YLDS, tokenized RWAs

🤖 AI as a Catalyst

The AI in Finance market is projected to grow from $38.36B in 2024 to $190.33B by 2030. Another model shows $17.79B in 2025 to $52.19B by 2029. Already, 72% of financial leaders use AI in operations and 64% for fraud detection.

Figure integrates Cotality’s API and CLIP™ tech, providing real-time property data and AI-driven underwriting. This reduces risk, accelerates approvals, and aligns with the broader shift toward hyper-personalization and predictive analytics.

⚠️ Risks as Catalysts

Regulation and competition are not weaknesses; they are accelerants. Compliance-forward firms like Figure build moats as frameworks such as the EU’s DORA tighten operational resilience. For FIGR, regulatory clarity strengthens its position as the blockchain-native leader carving a trillion-dollar path.

For GEMI, legal costs and fee compression remain headwinds, but scarcity as one of only three listed U.S. exchanges (alongside Coinbase and Bullish) could fuel debut demand.

📊 IPO Market Backdrop

The IPO window is heating up: Klarna, Gemini, and Legence pricing alongside Figure. Earlier successes from Circle, eToro, and Bullish confirmed investor appetite. IPOX CEO Josef Schuster notes the pipeline will stay active for compliance-forward issuers.

It would be a massive understatement to say the IPO market has seen fluctuations over the past five years. In 2021, U.S. markets experienced a record-breaking 1,035 IPOs, driven by near-zero interest rates. That surge was followed by an 80%+ drop in 2022–2023, compared with the 20-year historical average of 254 IPOs per year. This muted environment led many to question whether companies would remain “private forever.” The answer is no: liquidity, capital efficiency, and brand recognition mean IPOs will inevitably return. Public markets process more volume in four days than all of private equity does in a year, underscoring why access to public capital remains indispensable.

Recent volatility also reminds us that IPO performance is often uneven. Figma (FIG), for example, traded down to $57.90, a 35.7% decline over the past three months, showing how quickly euphoric debuts can fade.

Reddit forums highlight a key truth: IPOs skip accumulation and open in euphoria. Unless allocated, chasing day one often punishes retail. The real test will be the first earnings call.

🧩 GEMI Context

• Offering: 16.7M shares @ $17–$19, ~$317M raise

• Valuation: $2.1–$2.2B

• Assets under custody: ~$18B

• Financials: 2024 revenue $142M vs $98M in 2023, but –$158.5M net loss in 2024 and –$282.5M in 1H25 on $68.6M revenue

GEMI brings brand recognition and scarcity, but its execution risk is high. By contrast, Figure enters public markets with profitability in hand.

🏁 Strategic Takeaway

• FIGR: Profitable, scaling, institutionally backed. Positioned to rewrite how trillions in credit flow.

• GEMI: Scarcity and brand play, but weighed down by losses and regulation.

These are not predictions; they’re probability-weighted frameworks. And the probability is high that FIGR won’t just trade; it will test the very architecture of capital markets.

🚀❓If allocated one, would you choose FIGR for profitability and rails or GEMI for scarcity and risk? How would you size for day-one volatility?

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

@Tiger_comments