To The Moon

The crypto IPO wave is heating up, with Gemini and Figure joining Circle in the rush to public markets, targeting combined hauls over $800 million amid a $15 billion fintech IPO pipeline. Gemini, the Winklevoss-backed exchange, eyes a $2.22 billion valuation with a $317 million raise, while Figure, the blockchain lender, seeks up to $526 million at a $4.13 billion valuation. Circle's blockbuster debut, raising $1.1 billion and surging 89% above IPO price, sets the bar high. With the S&P 500 at 6,512.34, Nasdaq at 21,918.45, and Bitcoin at $123,456, the VIX at 14.12 reflects calm amid tariffs (30% on EU/Mexico, 35% on Canada) and oil at $74.50/barrel. Can Gemini uphold compliant exchange banner despite losses? Will Figure's RWA model spark a trillion-dollar track? In the IPO boom, do you favor exchanges or RWAs? This deep dive explores the filings, valuations, market reactions, and strategies to bet on the next star or hedge the risks.

IPO Wave Unpacked: Gemini & Figure Filings

The rush to public markets is accelerating:

• Gemini Details: Filed for Nasdaq IPO under GEMI, targeting $317 million at $17-$19 per share, valuing at $2.22 billion. H1 2025 revenue $142.2 million (up 45% YoY) but losses widened to $282.5 million, with 5.7% user growth and 50% trading volume surge. Compliant focus with Ripple backing positions it as a regulated player.

• Figure Details: Filed for Nasdaq as FIGR, aiming $526 million at $18-$20 per share, valuing at $4.13 billion. H1 2025 revenue $191 million (up 22.4% YoY), profit $29 million (from $13 million loss), with RWA model in home equity lending.

• Circle Benchmark: $1.1 billion raised in June 2025, shares up 89% post-IPO to $60 from $31, market cap $10 billion, setting the stage for crypto IPOs.

• Pipeline Buzz: Klarna (KLAR) $35-$37 per share, $20 billion valuation; more like Kraken, OKX in wings, with $40 billion fundraising expected this year, up from $27.5 billion last.

• Market Reaction: Gemini up 5% pre-IPO hype, Figure steady, but Circle's success fuels optimism, with volume spikes.

• Sentiment Check: Posts found on X hype "crypto IPO boom" but warn of "bubble risks," showing split views.

The wave could reshape crypto, but execution is key.

Gemini's Compliance Banner: Uphold or Drag Down?

Gemini's exchange model faces scrutiny:

• Strengths: Regulated focus with $142.2 million revenue and Ripple backing position it as a compliant leader, with 50% trading volume growth and 30% asset increase.

• Losses Challenge: $282.5 million H1 loss (worsening from $158.5 million in 2024) due to legal fees and competition, per filings.

• Upside Potential: If IPO raises $317 million for expansion, revenue could hit $300 million in 2026 (up 110%), with $3 billion valuation (35% upside) if compliance wins.

• Downside Risks: Regulatory hurdles and losses could cap at $1.5 billion valuation (32% downside) if sentiment sours.

• Sentiment Check: Optimism on X for "Gemini compliance win" contrasts with "loss drag," reflecting uncertainty.

Gemini could uphold the banner if losses reverse.

Figure's RWA Model: Trillion-Dollar Track?

Figure's RWA approach sparks interest:

• Model Details: Blockchain-based lending with $191 million H1 revenue and $29 million profit, reversing $13 million loss, focusing on home equity and AI.

• Trillion Potential: RWA market projected to $30 trillion by 2030 (Boston Consulting), with Figure's $4.13 billion IPO valuation positioning it as a leader if tokenized assets scale.

• Upside Potential: If revenue hits $400 million in 2026, valuation could double to $8 billion (93% upside).

• Downside Risks: Competition from BlackRock's BUIDL and regulatory scrutiny could cap at $3 billion (27% downside).

• Sentiment Check: Posts found on X see "RWA trillion track" but "execution risks," showing cautious hope.

RWA could be a trillion-dollar track if Figure executes.

Exchange vs RWA: Your IPO Boom Pick?

In the boom, models diverge:

• Exchange Model (Gemini): Compliance and volume growth favor it for stability, but losses and regulation pose risks, with 45% revenue growth but widening deficits.

• RWA Model (Figure): Tokenization and lending offer high upside in a $30 trillion market, with profit turnaround, but volatility and adoption hurdles loom.

• Preference Debate: Exchanges for liquidity plays (Circle's 89% surge), RWAs for asset innovation (Figure's 22.4% revenue growth).

• Boom Context: $40 billion fundraising expected this year, up from $27.5 billion, with Klarna, Kraken in pipeline.

• Sentiment Check: X favors "RWA trillion potential" over "exchange compliance," but "bubble fears" persist.

RWAs may edge exchanges for transformative upside.

Trading Strategies: Bet on the Stars or Hedge

Short-Term Plays

• Gemini Breakout: Buy at $18-$20 IPO, target $25, stop at $17. A 25% gain if compliance shines.

• Figure Dip: Buy at $18-$20, target $25, stop at $17. A 25% upside if RWA scales.

• Profit Lock: Sell Gemini at $22, target $20, stop at $24. A 9% buffer if overbought.

• Options Play: Buy $25 calls for Gemini/Figure (post-IPO) for 150-200% gains on a 20% move.

• Scalp Swing: Buy Figure at $18, sell at $20-$22, stop at $17. A 11-22% quick win.

Long-Term Investments

• Hold Gemini: Buy at $18-$20, target $30-$40 by 2026, for 67-100% upside if losses reverse. Stop at $15.

• Hold Figure: Buy at $18-$20, target $30-$40, for 67-100% upside if RWA hits. Stop at $15.

• Diversify with Circle: Buy at $60, target $80, for 33% upside. Stop at $50.

• Defensive Pick: Buy PepsiCo at $185, target $200, for 8% upside. Stop at $180.

Hedge Strategies

• VIXY ETF: Buy at $14, target $17, stop at $12, to hedge volatility.

• SPY Puts: Use puts at 6,400 for a 5-10% market drop.

• Gold (GLD): Buy at $200, target $210, stop at $195, as a buffer.

My Trading Plan: Betting on RWA

I’m betting on Figure's RWA model with a balanced approach. I’ll buy Figure at $18-$20 IPO, targeting $25, with a $17 stop, riding tokenization wave. I’ll add Gemini at $18-$20, aiming for $25, with a $17 stop, for diversification. I’ll include Circle at $60, targeting $70, with a $55 stop, and PepsiCo at $185, targeting $195, with a $180 stop. I’m hedging with VIXY at $14, targeting $16, and holding 20% cash for a dip to $15 or tariff news. I’ll monitor IPO debuts and Fed signals closely.

Key Metrics

The Bigger Picture

Gemini and Figure's IPO filings on September 7, 2025, targeting $2.22 billion and $4.13 billion valuations, follow Circle's 89% surge, with a $40 billion fundraising boom projected. A 25-67% rise to $25-$30 is possible post-IPO if compliance/RWA shine, with $40 target (100% upside) by year-end if market holds. A 15-20% dip to $15-$16 threatens if losses/regulations hit, with $12 support. The valuations signal boom—bet on the next star with hedges or wait for clarity. The crypto IPO game is on—your next move?

Exchange or RWA: your IPO pick? Share below! 🎁

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📝 Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.

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