To The Moon

Oracle $Oracle(ORCL)$ , the world’s second-largest software company and a major cloud player, dropped its Q1 FY26 earnings after the bell on Tuesday (covering the quarter ended August 31). While revenue and profit came in slightly below expectations, demand tied to the “Stargate” project sent Oracle’s cloud infrastructure orders through the roof. The result? Oracle’s stock price soared 36% in a single day — its biggest one-day gain since 1992 — pushing the company’s market cap close to the $1 trillion club. Oracle’s rapid rise may also be signaling that the balance of power in the AI industry is starting to shift.

Source: investor.oracle.com

Oracle at a Glance

Oracle is a global leader in enterprise software and cloud solutions, best known for its database business. Its flagship Oracle Database provides a full suite of data storage, management, optimization, and maintenance solutions, prized for its high performance, security, and scalability — the backbone of data systems for banks, governments, manufacturers, retailers, and more.

Beyond databases, Oracle also offers a full suite of SaaS enterprise applications including ERP, HCM, CX, and SCM, which are widely used by businesses worldwide. In recent years, Oracle has leaned hard into cloud computing with its Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) platform. Compared with AWS and Azure, OCI emphasizes bare-metal compute, high performance, and strong cost efficiency. Oracle is now the fourth-largest cloud provider globally, behind the “Big Three,” and while there’s still a big gap in market share, its growth rate is among the fastest.

Orders Go Parabolic

In Q1, Oracle’s revenue rose 12% year-over-year, just shy of analyst forecasts, but the real story was the cloud segment:

• Total cloud revenue was up 28% YoY

• OCI revenue exploded 55% YoY

• Adjusted operating income rose 9%

• Adjusted EPS came in at $1.47, up 6%

Source: Oracle Q1 Earnings

Margins ticked down slightly, but investors weren’t focused on quarterly profitability — they were focused on the flood of new orders.

• Remaining performance obligations (RPO) jumped 359% YoY to $455 billion.

• Oracle signed four multi-billion-dollar cloud infrastructure deals in the quarter.

• Management said even more billion-dollar-plus deals are expected in the coming months, likely pushing RPO beyond $500 billion.

Because of this, Oracle raised its FY26 OCI revenue growth guidance from 70% to 77%, targeting $18 billion this year. Management sees OCI revenue reaching $32B, $73B, $114B, and $144B over the next four fiscal years — most of which is already reflected in RPO. In other words, OCI is becoming a powerful “second growth engine” for the company.

Stargate Project and the Changing Cloud Landscape

Oracle’s updated forecast implies its cloud infrastructure business could, within a few years, get close to — or even surpass — some of the Big Three cloud providers. With AWS expected to generate $120–130B in cloud revenue this year, Oracle’s growth trajectory positions it as a potential disruptor. For AWS, whose growth has slowed, and for Google Cloud, which lacks scale efficiency, Oracle could become a serious competitive threat.

Media reports suggest Oracle’s massive new orders are largely tied to OpenAI’s demand for 4.5GW of data center capacity, worth an estimated $30B annually. This demand is part of the “Stargate” AI infrastructure project, a joint effort between Oracle, OpenAI, and SoftBank.

And it’s not just Oracle: other companies in the AI supply chain are also seeing massive orders, many rumored to be tied to OpenAI.

• Broadcom$Broadcom(AVGO)$ recently said it landed a fourth custom AI chip customer and signed a $100B production deal — with many speculating that the “mystery customer” is OpenAI.

• CoreWeave$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ , which went public this year, has reportedly secured $16B in orders from OpenAI, further expanding its GPU clusters.

If true, this could mean OpenAI is taking a page out of Microsoft and Google’s playbook — designing its own chips, building its own AI compute clusters, and reducing its reliance on NVIDIA.

All these moves suggest the once tightly-knit OpenAI + Microsoft + NVIDIA “iron triangle” may be loosening, creating space for new players. Combined with the massive capex tied to the Stargate project, this could be the start of a new boom for the entire AI infrastructure sector. We think this shift creates opportunities for several key players:

• Arm$ARM Holdings(ARM)$ — a named partner in the Stargate project, which hasn’t yet seen major orders flow through. Future contract announcements could be a catalyst for the stock.

• AMD$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ — already a key Oracle and OpenAI partner. If Oracle is ramping up its data center buildout this aggressively, it could be a big boost for AMD’s GPU sales.

• Other AI infrastructure suppliers — including chipmakers, server manufacturers, power providers, optical module makers, and liquid-cooling solution vendors — could all see multi-year tailwinds.

Invesight Viewpoint

Oracle’s breakout is not just a win for its cloud transformation strategy — it’s a signal that we’re entering a new era of AI infrastructure buildout. As OpenAI and other AI leaders diversify their compute supply chains, the industry’s “big three” dynamic may be disrupted, paving the way for a new set of winners.

For investors who have been heavily focused on Microsoft, NVIDIA, and the usual AI leaders, it may be time to broaden your radar. Companies that can deliver high-performance infrastructure — and still have plenty of room for valuation expansion — could offer some of the best opportunities in the next phase of the AI supercycle.