To The Moon

Gemini Space Station (NASDAQ: GEMI), the crypto exchange founded by the Winklevoss twins, priced its IPO at $28 per share on September 11, 2025, raising $425 million in a deal that was oversubscribed ~20x. The stock debuted strongly on September 12, opening at $41 and peaking at ~$46, before closing the first day at $32 (up 14% from IPO). However, it has since pulled back sharply amid broader market volatility, post-IPO selling pressure, and scrutiny over the company's fundamentals. As of September 17 close, GEMI traded at ~$24.53, down 12.8% that day and ~24% from debut highs—firmly below the IPO price.This dip aligns with a cooling in the 2025 crypto IPO wave (e.g., Bullish $BLSH down 43% post-IPO, eToro down 14%), where initial hype fades as investors digest losses and competition.

Bottom Fishing Case (Buy the Dip): Crypto Tailwinds: In a bull cycle (BTC up 7% in last 12 weeks), exchanges like GEMI could rebound on higher volumes. Oversubscription and Nasdaq backing show demand for "crypto exposure without holding coins." Early investors (e.g., Cleo Capital) remain bullish on long-term innovation (staking, custody).

Technical Setup: $28 is key support (IPO level); a hold could spark rebound to $32–$35. Recent volume spikes (135M+ shares) suggest accumulation. If SEC settles positively, it could catalyze 20–30% upside.

Long-Term: Expansion (e.g., citral derivatives, cooling agents) and diversification position it to rival COIN if adoption grows.

Avoid Case (Wait or Pass): Profitability Drag: Losses ballooned in 2025 despite revenue growth—far from breakeven. Analysts note it's "still far from turning a profit," trading at a rich multiple amid sector skepticism.

Market Context: Post-Fed rate cut (25bps Sept 18), risk assets dipped; GEMI extended a 24% weekly slump. Broader IPO fatigue: Recent debuts (Klarna $KLAR, Figure $FIGR) also traded below day-one closes. Studies show most IPOs fall below offer price within 12 months.

Volatility Risk: Thin float + high short interest (81% churn) = wild swings. If BTC corrects, GEMI could test $20.

My TakeThis is classic post-IPO indigestion—hype met reality. Bottom fish if you're bullish on crypto's 2025 cycle and can stomach volatility; it's a high-conviction play on institutional adoption at a ~30% discount to IPO. But with losses mounting and no clear path to profits, avoid if you're risk-averse or short-term focused—wait for SEC clarity or a $20–$22 stabilization