To The Moon

We all know that electrifying feeling when a trade moves in our favor—the thrill of seeing green numbers rise and imagining the profits rolling in. Yet, paradoxically, taking those profits can feel almost impossible. So, what really keeps us from turning potential gains into actual profits?

For me, the answer is surprisingly simple: luck. Timing plays a bigger role than we often admit. I can buy a stock with careful analysis, only to watch it stagnate or move in the wrong direction. No matter how confident I am in my research, if the price doesn’t reach a level that allows me to sell profitably, I simply can’t take profits. It’s as straightforward and as frustrating as that.

But luck isn’t the only factor. Our psychology plays a huge role. Fear and uncertainty often creep in when a stock approaches a profit target. Many traders, myself included, sell early, not out of greed, but out of caution. We prefer a smaller, certain gain over the possibility of a larger one that might never materialize. This is why, with positions I don’t fully trust or don’t believe in long-term, I usually take profits quickly.

There are exceptions, of course. For certain securities like TLT and TLH—long-term treasury ETFs I believe in, I’m willing to hold, even when profits are sitting on the table. My confidence in these investments allows me to resist the urge to sell prematurely, highlighting how conviction and research can sometimes outweigh luck or fear.

iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLH)

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

Another subtle factor is the trading environment itself. Volatility, news events, market sentiment—all of these can influence whether a position reaches our target. A well-timed profit can feel almost like catching lightning in a bottle, while a missed opportunity can leave us wondering if holding out would have been smarter. Recognizing these forces helps us understand that not every “missed profit” is a personal failure—it’s often just part of the game.

Moreover, reviewing past trades and patterns is key. Are we consistently selling too early? Are certain types of trades more prone to stagnation or loss? By analyzing these patterns, we can identify habits that limit profit-taking and adjust our strategies over time. In other words, luck matters, but preparation, discipline, and self-awareness are the tools we control.

Ultimately, taking profits is as much a mental game as it is a market game. It’s a delicate balance between patience, conviction, and timing and yes, sometimes, a little luck. Understanding why we sell or fail to sell can transform the way we approach trading. It allows us to make more strategic decisions, capture more gains, and navigate the market with both confidence and humility.

Profit isn’t just about numbers on a screen—it’s about understanding ourselves as traders. The more we study our behaviors, the more we can turn fleeting moments of opportunity into real, lasting success.