When will the US government shutdown end?
Although the U.S. government officially shut down on October 1, after Democrats and Republicans failed to agree on funding, the stock market showed little concern, posting solid gains on the first trading day of the month.
Some investors wryly noted that “no data means no bad data.” The suspension of key economic releases such as jobs and CPI could temporarily remove negative catalysts from the market.
Historically, government shutdowns have had limited market impact, typically lasting less than two weeks. While most investors remain unfazed, a few caution that if the Trump administration follows through on its threat to lay off large numbers of federal employees, or if the shutdown drags on longer than expected, the economic damage could escalate.
Bank of America compiled historical data showing that markets usually react sharply at the onset of a shutdown, but the overall impact is muted unless the disruption lasts several weeks or coincides with other stress factors such as a debt ceiling standoff.
The key question now is how long the current impasse will last. Prediction market Polymarket shows the most popular bets clustered around “October 15 or later” and “October 10–14,” each with over 30% probability.
This implies that more than half of market participants expect the shutdown to last at least until mid-October, while only a minority anticipate a resolution within the first five days.
Fund manager Dan Niles wrote on X (formerly Twitter) that he expects this shutdown could exceed the 35-day standoff of 2018. However, he believes the market remains more focused on three factors: 1）The strength of upcoming Q3 earnings season; 2）Persistent optimism surrounding AI; and 3）The Federal Reserve’s Oct. 29 meeting, where the Fed is expected to stick to its three-rate-cut plan for the year.
In summary, he believes that while there may be some short-term volatility, the market will eventually reach new highs as it slowly moves higher.
Most investment banks expect the shutdown to be short-lived. Goldman Sachs pegs the probability of a deal by mid-October at around 60%.
Bank of America’s Washington team warns that the government needs to reopen no later than October 15 to avoid meaningful economic fallout. Delays beyond mid-October would raise the costs:
The CBO estimates that each week of shutdown shaves 0.1–0.2 percentage points off quarterly GDP growth.
A prolonged closure could weigh on consumer confidence and disrupt contractors tied to federal projects.
Uncertainty from delayed data releases could complicate the Fed’s policy signaling at its end-of-month meeting.
What you guess？Within 2wks or longer？
[Predict] When the U.S. government shutdown end？(Single choice)Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
