To The Moon

Economic Calendar: Key Market Movers (week of 13Oct25)

Public Holidays

There are no public holidays in China, Hong Kong and the USA. Singapore is closed on 13 Oct 2025 as we celebrate Deepavali (Diwali).

Market Outlook and Key Economic Indicators for the Coming Week

The following is an overview of the key economic events and data releases anticipated to drive market sentiment and volatility in the coming week.

Inflationary Data

Market attention will be primarily focused on two critical inflation metrics, which are particularly relevant following recent Federal Reserve (Fed) communications:

• Consumer Price Index (CPI): This is the most anticipated economic event. As a primary measure of inflation, any significant deviation from market forecasts is likely to induce substantial market volatility and directly influence future monetary policy expectations.

• Producer Price Index (PPI): The PPI, which tracks inflation at the producer level, is a crucial reference point. It is often viewed as a leading indicator for the CPI, as increased costs for producers typically translate into higher prices for consumers.

Consumer and Manufacturing Activity

Data reflecting consumer demand and manufacturing health will also be closely scrutinized:

• Core Retail Sales: Forecasted at 0.4%, this figure serves as a key indicator of consumer spending strength. Any deviation from this forecast could lead to market volatility.

• Retail Sales (Month-over-Month): The September MoM figure, also forecasted at 0.4%, will offer a clear reflection of the retail market’s performance.

• Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index: This report provides valuable insights into the health and outlook of the manufacturing sector.

Labour Market Statistics

Several important reports will offer a comprehensive view of the labour market, which is central to the Fed’s dual mandate:

• Non-Farm Payroll (NFP): The September NFP is expected to be at 52,000.

• Initial Jobless Claims: Forecasted at 223,000.

• Average Hourly Earnings (MoM): Expected to show a growth of 0.3%.

• Unemployment Rate: The rate is currently expected to hold steady at 4.3%.

Any significant change in these labour market figures will be a key determinant of market volatility and will heavily influence the Federal Reserve’s forthcoming decisions regarding interest rates.

Other Macro Indicators

• Crude Oil Inventories: This data provides a useful macroeconomic reference point, as changes in inventory levels can serve as a preliminary indicator of producers’ consumption forecasts.

@TigerStars

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