To The Moon

My Investing Muse (13Oct25)

Layoffs, Bankruptcy & Closure news

Investing - TRUMP: WILL BE MAKING PERMANENT CUTS DUE TO SHUTDOWN

• “US auto bankruptcies show rising credit pain in low-income households,” per Reuters.

• 44% of US homeowners and renters are struggling to afford their regular rent or mortgage payments, per Redfin

• “Gen Z are dipping into their retirements, skipping meals and selling their belongings just to get by,” per FORTUNE

CNBC - France’s political chaos throws its soaring debt and deficit into the spotlight

This is the largest trucking bankruptcy of the year - 1000 employees out of work at Montgomery Transport. - X user Craig Fuller

An insurance executive told me that he expects new trucking and brokerage policies will forbid hiring non-domiciled CDLs. “It’s all over.” - X user Craig Fuller

The US construction industry is in a RECESSION: US construction job openings CRATERED by 115,000 in August, to 188,000, the lowest in 8 YEARS. Over the last 18 months, job openings in construction saw one of the largest drops on record. - X user Global Markets Investor

U.S. auto loan losses have reached their highest level since March 2020. First, people stop paying their cards. Then, they stop paying for their cars. Finally, they stop paying for their homes. And the government shutdown isn’t helping.

World debt spiked $14 TRILLION in Q2 2025 to $338 TRILLION, an all-time high. Emerging markets debt hit a RECORD of $109 trillion. Global debt-to-GDP ratio fell 1 percentage point to 324%. Emerging markets’ debt-to-GDP hit a record 242%. - X user Global Markets Investor

64% of Gen Z and 61% of Millennials with student loans rely on credit cards, buy-now-pay-later loans or personal loans to bridge financial gaps, per FICO

2025 On Course for The Highest Auto Repossession Volume in Recorded History, Nearly 3 Million Cars Set to Be Seized — CUReposession

We may literally be entering a bubble. Last month, retail investors bought a record $100 billion worth of stocks. Given that the market was already expensive, they likely got caught up in FOMO and poured most of this money into already overvalued stocks, further stretching valuations. At some point, smart money will inevitably start dumping some of these overextended names to take profits and de-risk their portfolios. When that happens, retail investors will panic and flee the market faster than they bought in. This will likely trigger the long-overdue correction. It’s time to be more fearful than greedy. - X user The X Capitalist

US FREIGHT RECESSION DEEPENS: The Cass Freight Index, a key gauge of shipping and logistics activity, plunged in August to its lowest level since the 2008 Financial Crisis, signalling severe weakness in freight volumes and ongoing strain across the U.S. transportation and manufacturing sectors. - First Squawk

There will be a surge of trucking bankruptcies over the next year. Many of the small and midsize truckers hired non-domiciled CDLs and drivers without work permits. The Administration’s outlawing of this practice will put these carriers into bankruptcy. The carriers hired these drivers because they would take the job at rates much cheaper than their American counterparts. With the pipeline of drivers closing, most of these carriers will not survive. Without considering driver wages, the operating cost for truckers on a per-mile basis is up more than 40% over the past 5 years, but rates are down nearly $.30/mile. Most miles that carriers run in this market is at a loss. To survive, many mid-sized operators hired these illegal truckers. It was permitted because the government looked the other way and created an endless pipeline by issuing CDLs to truckers who had a commercial driver’s license from another country, without ever having to pass a CDL test in the US or even having a work permit. With the pipeline of cheap labour shuttering and having to pay more, their days are numbered. Chart: National truckload rate per mile - X user Craig Fuller

It seems that layoffs, closures and bankruptcies continue to trend in the “wrong” direction.

My final thoughts

JPMORGAN CEO JAMIE DIMON WARNS INVESTORS ARE IGNORING THE THREAT OF A MASSIVE MARKET CRASH THAT COULD WIPE OUT ONE-THIRD OF STOCK VALUE - First Squawk

Institutional investors and hedge funds SOLD US equities for the 4th week STRAIGHT. Hedge funds’ 4-week selling average rose to $2.1 BILLION, the most since at least the Great Financial Crisis. - X user Global Markets Investor

Primary Market Headwinds

The market is facing significant pressure following a $1.65 trillion market wipeout that occurred last Friday. The primary catalyst remains the unresolved trade conflict, marked by an escalating exchange of rhetoric between the U.S. and China regarding tariffs. The absence of a clear resolution is expected to cast a bearish shadow over the markets in the coming week.

This geopolitical uncertainty is likely to overshadow the commencement of the Q3 earnings season, particularly within the crucial banking sector. Furthermore, the use of leverage introduces a compounding risk; margin calls, if triggered, could significantly increase both the speed and magnitude of any subsequent market decline.

Beyond the trade conflict, several sector-specific risks are contributing to the broader economic challenge:

• Energy Costs: A continued increase in energy prices is expected to place pressure on operational costs across various industries.

• Logistics/Trucking: Changes in insurance policies that exclude illegal migrant drivers are anticipated to result in a severe driver shortage. This policy shift, combined with high operating costs, will likely lead to an increase in trucking company bankruptcies.

• Agriculture: Despite government assurances of aid for soybean farmers, the assistance may be insufficient and untimely, adding to the mounting challenges faced across different sectors of the American economy.

Portfolio Strategy

Given the confluence of geopolitical, economic, and sector-specific risks, it is strongly recommended that we immediately proceed with establishing hedging positions to diversify and mitigate the overall risk exposure within the existing portfolio.

Financial Strategy and Outlook

Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings with the intention of divesting from businesses that are losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.

As we move forward, it is essential to conduct thorough due diligence before taking on any new positions.

Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

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