To The Moon

News and my thoughts from the past week (20Oct25)

Jenson says Nvidia goes “from 95% market share to 0%” in China, and that he “cannot imagine any policymaker thinking that’s a good idea. Whatever policy we implemented caused America to lose one of the largest markets in the world to 0%. ”In a separate interview, he effectively says that he might have lost the US in the AI race. Because, as he puts it, “winning” the AI race means that “80% of the world uses the American tech stack” and that, given that China on its own is “50% of AI research” and “30% of the technology market”, then them not using the American tech stack means that by definition America is “forfeiting and conceding” the AI race. In that separate interview he also completely ridicules the narrative - used by the US to justify the export controls - that they were to prevent “dual use” of advanced Western chips for military purposes by China, saying that “no government, surely the Chinese government, is going to be building their defense on Western technology nor does the Pentagon use Chinese chips to build our national security.” So to sum up: in a foolish attempt to slow China’s AI development, not only did the US lose its largest market, but it may have lost the AI race itself.

When the military war has ended, the economic, political and other social conflicts will give to light. With corruption and destruction, Ukraine is likely to slip into domestic turmoil. Let the war end, and rebuilding to start.

The US Government is now on track to shut down for more than 40 days, the longest shutdown in history. This means the current shutdown is expected to last 5 TIMES longer than average.

CNBC Markets news webpage screenshot displays headline CEOs of Wells Fargo and Pfizer caution the US could lose its edge to China without innovation, published October 15 2023. Key points section notes Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf said AI boosts productivity but will likely reduce workforce size. Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla warned China is closing biotech patent gap rapidly and said the US needs to focus on innovation. Article by Luke Fountain includes share icons.

Confidence in fiat currencies has collapsed. As a result, absolutely no one wants cash right now. In fact, cash allocation for institutional investors is down to 3.8%, the lowest percentage in 12 years. The Fed will soon lose its independence, rate cuts are coming into stagflation, and global debt jumped +$14 TRILLION in Q2 2025, to a record $337.7 trillion. You are either buying stocks at record highs, piling into gold and silver, or buying crypto. Meanwhile, corporations are investing hundreds of billions into AI and governments will soon join the AI arms race, prompting more money printing. This is exactly why we have been constantly stating to “own assets or be left behind.” Fiat currencies are losing their purchasing power and asset owners are looking to defend against it in any way possible. As investors, we can only play the hand we are dealt. - X user The Kobeissi Letter

The British Labour Party PLUMMETS to a historic low with only only 15% latest poll. This is their LOWEST vote share they have ever gotten since modern polling began. People are rejecting Socialism. Source: Find Out Now poll.

Central banks are cutting rates as if there is a RECESSION: 82% of world central banks have cut rates over the last 6 months, the highest share since the 2020 CRISIS. In the past, such a large percentage has only been seen during economic downturns. - X user Global Markets Investor

Regional bank stocks

Oxford researchers just confirmed what we feared: The internet as we knew it is dying. AI content went from ~5% in 2020 to 48% by May 2025. Projections say 90%+ by next year. Why? AI articles cost <$0.01. Human writers cost $10-100. But the real crisis is model collapse. When AI trains on AI-generated content, quality degrades like photocopying a photocopy. Rare ideas disappear. Everything converges to generic sameness. It’s recursive. Today’s AI slop becomes tomorrow’s training data, producing worse output, which becomes training data again. - X user Ask Perplexity

Every year, the average American worker puts about $8,500 into their 401(k). - Stock Market News

In 1929, one ounce of gold was priced at $20.67 in US Dollars. At that time, $1 could buy 0.0484 ounces of gold. Today, with gold at $4,200, $1 buys just 0.00024 ounces. That’s a 99.5% DROP in purchasing power. - X user Global Markets Investor

Reliability and consistency are traits of a leader. America is working hard to crown another.

China’s exports rose an annual 8.3 per cent last month, customs data showed on Monday, beating a 6 per cent increase in a Reuters poll and registering the fastest growth since March. This is despite 27% decline in exports to USA. - CNA

Bar chart titled Weekly fund flows to Direxion Daily NVDA Bull 2x Shares displaying vertical green and red bars representing net inflows and outflows in millions of dollars over time periods from October 2023 to October 2025. The y-axis ranges from -75 to 150 with labels at intervals. The x-axis marks Oct. Oct.23 24 25 Oct. A prominent red vertical bar at the end indicates 132 million dollars inflow. Source Factset noted at bottom.

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) says by 2028, all U.S. data centers together could use between 325 and 580 terawatt-hours (TWh) of power every year. =325,000–580,000 GWh per year That’s roughly the power used by 30–50 million homes. A normal modern U.S. nuclear produces ≈ 8,000 GWh per year. 580,000 GWh ÷ 8,000 GWh = about 73 plants The U.S. would need 40 – 70 new nuclear reactors (each 1 GW) to power just the electricity data centers might use by 2028 — if we tried to run them entirely on new nuclear energy. Reality Check : The U.S. has only added two new reactors in the last 30 years. Building even one new reactor takes 10 + years with today’s rules. So adding dozens by 2028 is basically impossible. - X user Shashank Sindhe

Due to passive investing now larger than active “fewer and fewer people are actually making a market in stocks using their brains. Most, as indexers, are just blindly buying.” - X user Sven Henrich

Screenshot of Politico news website homepage under News and Health Care sections showing headline 1 in 6 infections now resistant to antibiotics with subtext Resistance to commonly used drugs rose over 40% in five years, a WHO report found. Includes navigation elements like Home, Latest news, French political crisis, EU-US relations, and login button.

@TigerStars

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